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Country Insights

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IMF gives us a chance: $5 billion in first installment and demand to keep moving with reforms
UKRAINE - In Brief 12 Mar 2015

Well, the IMF approved only $5 billion as first installment instead of $10 billion Ukrainian authorities demanded. Against the backdrop of aggravated internal fights between Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk (a...


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First Impressions from the Erdogan-Babacan-Basci-Summit
TURKEY - In Brief 12 Mar 2015

I’m rushing my first impressions from the Erdogan, Babacan and Basci summit which concluded around 8 pm Turkish time last night. A brief statement from Erdogan followed around 9:30 pm. I wanted to pen this so that our Asian readers have something to ...


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Politics: Anti-graft System’s First Steps
MEXICO - Report 11 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

On February 26, the Chamber of Deputies approved by an overwhelming majority constitutional amendments proposed by the National Action Party for achieving a more effective anti-corruption system. If adopted in its present form, the reform would mark a major step i...


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Economics: Oil Steady, but not Public Finance
MEXICO - Report 11 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

A core issue for defining Mexican public finance, especially as it affects the implementation of the 2015 federal spending budget and the design of the budget for 2016, as well as the country’s trade balance for both this year and next is the extent to which intern...


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What to expect from the critical Erdogan-Babacan and Basci summit?
TURKEY - In Brief 10 Mar 2015

Davutoglu received a second briefing today from his economy team and announced that President Erdogan will receive economy czar Babacan CBRT head Basci on Wednesday (time of the meeting not available to me). The critical summit was preceded by a glo...


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Week of March 9
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 09 Mar 2015

The list of politicians involved in the Petrobras scandal will dominate the week and should increase the political temperature.The release of the names could influence the protests scheduled for the 15th.President Dilma meets with her political council on Monday.The House analyzes the minimum ...


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Fighting for Peace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 09 Mar 2015
A long-awaited ceasefire benefits separatists in Novorossiya as they managed to use last days before it came into force to capture an important transportation hub and can now regroup and consider further advancement. Russia would prefer to avoid further sanctions and can now wait some time for a ...

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Forces Weakening the Real
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Mar 2015
Nobody who uses two elements – the Brazilian current account deficit and the change in the international scenario, marked by appreciation of the dollar and decline of commodity prices – could have doubts that Brazil has entered a currency depreciation cycle. But these two forces together are insu...

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Weekly Tracker: March 8-14
TURKEY - Report 08 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

The main opposition party CHP is aiming high in this election. Can it really score the 35% it has set as a goal? We think not, but the fault doesn’t lay with the party. Meanwhile, former President Mr. Abdullah Gul is signaling that he may return to active politics. ...


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Tulin’s interview hints to rate cut next week
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 06 Mar 2015

Yesterday CBR’s new deputy governor for monetary policy Dmitry Tulin gave his first major interview t...


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Fiscal Adjustment
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 04 Mar 2015

Returned Provisional Measure a sign of congressional opposition to fiscal adjustment

On Tuesday night, March 3, Senate President Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL) decided to return Provisional Measure 669, which deals with payroll tax exemptions and other tax issues, to the Executive. In pra...


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Beware of Headwinds Ahead
MEXICO - Report 04 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

Economic activity firmed further through 2014, the latest data reveals, though some sectors suffered setbacks, and all analysts have lowered their growth forecasts for 2015.

GDP rose 2.6% in Q4 2014, driven by growth in all three major sectors, and despite w...


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Core Encourages, Questions Remain
TURKEY - Report 03 Mar 2015

February CPI inflation came in at 0.7%, broadly in line with expectations, which raised the 12-month rate to 7.5%, up from 7.2% in January, because of – once again – a sharp increase in food prices. Producer price inflation continues to fare low, thanks to favorable base effects as well as the...


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Parliament approves budget amendments which should unlock the IMF loan
UKRAINE - In Brief 03 Mar 2015

On March 2 Ukrainian parliament approved changes to the spending plan 2015. Revenues’ target for state budget was set 37% higher than actual collections in 2014 (UAH 498.2 billion vs. UAH 363.6 billion). Central budget deficit was also increased to UAH 76.3 billion which is 4.1% of GDP. ...


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The FDI Split
CHINA - Report 02 Mar 2015
Executive Summary Exports fell -3.3% y/y in January in dollar terms, down 11.8 pps from Q4. Export weakening was likely due to yuan appreciation against the dollar. Imports fell -19.9% y/y, down 18.3 pps. After correcting for the effects of the Chinese New Year holiday, import figures should a...