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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

An interest rate hike by ÁKK - outsourcing monetary policy
HUNGARY · Report · 16 Aug 2018

Inflation maintained its ascending trend in July, moving up a bit faster than expected. Fuel prices still played an important role, but there were also non-seasonal increases in the area of industrial products, on rising producer price inflation in that sector. Unlike in previous months, all core...

Lula’s candidacy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2018

​Regarding the registration of Lula’s candidacy with the Superior Electoral Court, it is highly unlikely that his candidacy will be accepted by the top electoral court in Brazil. Lula’s conviction by a higher court puts him in the crosshairs of the Clean Slate Law, and the judges of the electoral...

Turkey Conference Call: Crisis in Turkey - How does it end?
TURKEY · Report · 15 Aug 2018

How much more can the crisis between TURKEY and the US deepen? Is there a way out for Turkey? What are the implications for contagion?​

The South African exchange rate’s tumultuous ride
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 15 Aug 2018 · 1 response

The rand has been taking a hammering, particularly since the past week, and has also been very volatile of late. The South African exchange rate had appreciated significantly since around the time when the now-President Ramaphosa first claimed victory to become the leader of the governing ANC, an...

Friendless
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2018

The first bilateral meeting between Putin and Trump (and their third meeting in total) brought no tangible results, as the US President faced pressure from the Congress, and the Russian President had no intention of making any unilateral friendly steps. Ahead of the upcoming US Congressional elec...

GDP growth indeed slowed down in Q2 but better than expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2018

Q2 GDP came out at 0.9% qoq, 4.4% yoy this morning, decelerating from 1.2% qoq, 4.7% yoy in Q1. This means that analysts correctly expected growth to slow down but undershot the actual by their average expectation of 4.2% yoy (see yesterday's in-brief from us).As no details are made available on ...

Habemus law on political parties, at the speed of light
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 13 Aug 2018

As expected, in a matter of hours, the Senate voted for the bill on political parties approved the previous day by the Chamber of Representatives. Today, President Medina signed the bill. In our next monthly report, we will provide an account of the law, as well as an analysis of winners and lose...

IMF Mission Arrives: Good Sign
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Aug 2018

Today Ukraine’s representative to the IMF posted on his Facebook page a release stating that an IMF mission will visit Kyiv during September 6-19, 2018. No other details, just general words. Still it’s a very good sign for Ukraine after 16 months on hold. Most likely we have an agreement on gas p...

Economics: Abstaining from an optimistic consensus
MEXICO · Report · 13 Aug 2018

Many have interpreted the data contained in the preliminary GDP report for the second quarter as confirmation that the Mexican economy shows no sign of slowing down. However, we at GEA disagree with that assessment as a look at a broader array of indicators points to a scenario in which the econo...

Politics: An opposition trying to find its footing
MEXICO · Report · 13 Aug 2018

Opposition parties will be at a great disadvantage when the new Congress convenes September 1. With a greatly diminished presence in federal and state congresses, the majority of their governors soon to be shackled by state legislatures dominated by Morena and other local opposition parties, and ...

Main trends in the presidential race and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2018

On Tuesday, August 14, Minister Rosa Weber takes over the Superior Electoral Court. The deadline to register candidates with the Electoral Court is Wednesday, August 15. The PT and social movements are promising to organize demonstrations to support Lula. The electoral campaign begins on Thursday...

They are off
PANAMA · In Brief · 13 Aug 2018

Cambio Democratico (CD) held its primary elections to select the presidential candidate this past Sunday. The battle was between Rómulo Roux (a lawyer, center-right politician and former Minister of Canal Affairs in the Martinelli administration) and José Raúl Mulino (former Minister of Security ...

The monetary policy bearings
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Aug 2018

The final days of last week were marked by strong depreciation of the Turkish lira, followed by intense movements of the South African rand and Argentinian peso. Movements like these tend to spread to other emerging country currencies, and will likely affect the real in particular due to the unce...

A downward GDP growth surprise is likely in Q218
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Aug 2018

Wage growth appears to have moderated in recent months, which is supportive of modest inflation. Israeli institutions continue to purchase FX but at a modest pace, less than the CA surplus and FDI. The fiscal deficit is likely to surpass the fiscal target of 2.9% of GDP this year. Zoom in: ...

GDP growth is expected to decelerate in Q2
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Aug 2018

Q2 GDP growth is scheduled to be reported in first estimate early tomorrow. Analysts in Portfolio.hu's poll expect 4.2% yoy growth on sda basis, down from 4.7% yoy in Q1 and the 4.9% yoy cyclical peak in Q4 2017. We believe this is largely correct, but we would not be surprised at a somewhat lowe...

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