Country Insights

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Will Political Turmoil Affect Economic Performance?
PANAMA - Forecast 26 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

The economy is running at a steady pace: we project a 5.9% GDP growth in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016. The political climate is the most worrisome in the two-and-a-half decades after the demise of the military dictatorship due to corruption scandals during the Martinelli a...

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Signs of Stagflation?
INDONESIA - Report 26 Jun 2015
Executive Summary Similar to April, May 2015 was considered another critical month for the trade balance for Indonesia. In the previous years, the period starting from the third month prior to Ramadan was considered critical because of the spike in imports. However this year the months of Apri...

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Strong Contraction of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 26 Jun 2015
Executive Summary Since the level of nonperforming loans started to creep upward in late 2011-early 2012, private banks have been extremely cautious in extending new credit, both to consumers and companies. The most recent data indicate sharper contraction of non-earmarked credit and less impe...

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A Bumpy Inflation Landscape
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 26 Jun 2015

Headline inflation has accelerated from 4% year on year (y/y) in March 2015 to 4.6% y/y in May 2015. Producer price inflation for final manufactured goods increased significantly, to 3.6% y/y in May 2015 from 3.0% y/y recorded in April. Essentially, the trend in domestic inflation has reversed...

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CBR Goals Contradictory and Unrealistic
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 26 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

The ruble has entered a new stage of volatility and depreciation, with its weakening in early June triggered by a drop in oil prices, and the escalation of fighting in Eastern Ukraine. But the actions of the monetary authorities likewise played an important role.

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Economics: Commodities, Forex and Inflation
MEXICO - Report 24 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

Over the past year raw material prices have experienced their sharpest contractions on an international level since the economic crisis of 2008-2009. The International Monetary Fund’s general index of raw material prices recorded a 31.9% decrease between June 2014 ...

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Politics: Municipal Election Results
MEXICO - Report 24 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

In addition to electing a new Chamber of Deputies and nine state governors, on June 7 Mexican voters elected new authorities in slightly more than 1,000 municipalities. This election confirmed that a party’s victory in a gubernatorial contest is by no means a guar...

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Another 15 bps cut by the MNB, further small reduction promised
HUNGARY - In Brief 23 Jun 2015

The MNB reduced its base rate by 15 bps to 1.5% today, just as widely expected. Including this measure, the MNB has cut the base rate by a full 60 bps in equal steps over the past four months. The forint received this news quite negligently, hovering around EURHUF 310, which essentially re...

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The Current Account Deficit Remains in Place
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 23 Jun 2015

After having eased to 5.1% of the gross domestic product in Q4 2014, the deficit on the current account narrowed further, to 4.8% in Q1 2015 (see Graph 1).

Graph 1

Current account balance, South Africa, 2010 Q1- 2015 Q1

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What Can We Learn From the Currency Defense of 2013
INDIA - Report 23 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

In 2013, at the time of Ben Bernanke’s “Taper Talk”, India mounted a currency defense to combat currency depreciation. It is useful to look back at this episode, in order to obtain insights into the workings of a currency defense.

The authorities appeared to...

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MPC: All Hopes On Food Prices
TURKEY - Report 23 Jun 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee left all key short-term rates unchanged as expected – one-week repo rate at 7.5% and the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 10.75% and 7.25%, respectively (see chart).

The content of the statement on growth and the current account dynamics (the first econ ...

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Warning: Polarization Ahead
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 23 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

The political landscape has changed dramatically over the past three weeks, emerging from confusion to arrive at clarity: we now see that the country is headed toward political and electoral polarization. On one side are President Danilo Medina and his Partido de la...

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Concerns for 2016
COLOMBIA - Report 22 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

Q1 growth surpassed market expectations, but was in line with ours: the 2.8% rate DANE presented was well above the market’s 2.2%-2.4% prediction, but close to our 2.9% number. It’s in any case a good result, given trade shocks and the impacts of the international s...

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Part I: Has the recession which began in 2012 ended?
INDIA - Report 22 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

Changes in GDP estimation methodology have taken place, and the new GDP data shows a very rosy picture. However, we believe that the recession which began in Q1 2012 has not yet ended.

The methodological documents associated with the new GDP data show many i...

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“I Don’t Believe in Bequests, For Either Family Or Businesses”
ECUADOR - Report 22 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

That was the thrust of President Rafael Correa’s statement, during a recent media appearance in Guayaquil, in response to Ecuadorians’ massive opposition to new bills that would sharply increase bequest and capital gains taxes.

The country, led by Quito and ...

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