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Country Insights

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Ankara’s twin crisis: Pentagon request rebuffed, PKK returns to insurgency
TURKEY - In Brief 13 Oct 2014

Painful cluster headaches held me back from contributing to the Weekly Tracker hence I’m issuing this brief note on two recent developments in lieu of an apology. On Tuesday, I'll address a conference call through GlobalSourcePartners to articulate ...


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Long election season ends with Fidesz-KDNP's victory at the nationwide local elections yesterday
HUNGARY - In Brief 13 Oct 2014

Fact: The governing Fidesz-KDNP won nationwide local elections with a convincing margin yesterday. This vote was a mirror image of the parliamentary election in April, in so far as in both cases, Fidesz-KDNP's results were moderately worse than four years ago, but only com...


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The Brazilian Economy at a Crossroads
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Oct 2014
Executive Summary The new government, whichever candidate wins the presidential runoff, will have to face at least four challenges: a) renewed growth; b) fiscal control; c) reduction of the current account deficit, allowing the real to depreciate; and d) control of inflation. Achieving all the...

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Brazil in the Global Context: IMF View in the Most Recent WEO
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Oct 2014
Last week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published the most recent edition of the World Economic Outlook, with revised forecasts for economic growth of various countries (Table 1). World GDP should expand by 3.3% in 2014 (a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point), with growth of 1.8% in...

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Weekly Tracker: October 12-18
TURKEY - Report 12 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

In this Economics-only Tracker, we review our take on the government’s new Medium Term Program, including a correction of an oversight on our part. We also touch upon the recent comments from the Fitch and the IMF.The former kept Turkey’s sovereign rating at investm...


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Hints of Stagflation
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 11 Oct 2014

In September 2014, the Kagiso Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) recorded 50.7 index points; up from 49.0 points in August 2014. A reading above 50 points suggests a quickening in the tempo of economic activity. However, the headline September print of the PMI calls for caution as far as making ...


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Economics and Politics, 140 days into the BJP Government
INDIA - Report 10 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

The defining issue in India’s business cycle downturn has been weakness in investment. This has been shaped by difficulties in implementing projects, and in the gloom of firms that felt future profitability was not going to be good.

Reviving investment is a ...


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Panama is Now Officially a “Tax Haven” from Colombia’s Perspective
PANAMA - Report 10 Oct 2014

On October 7, the Santos Administration included Panama in the list of “fiscal paradises” (in the company of Barbados, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar) because the Martinelli administration and now the Varela Government have not signed the exchange of information agreement between Colombia and Panama. C...


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Central Bank Facing New Challenges
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 10 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

Growth was effectively flat in Q2, at 0.8% y/y and nearly zero q/q, seasonally adjusted, though falling imports and an uptick in exports saved the country from falling into recession. Though the fall in imports makes Russian numbers look good, this doesn’t provide a...


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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 10 Oct 2014

Datafolha and Ibope: Aécio and Dilma Tied

Aécio Neves (PSDB) and Dilma Rousseff (PT) are technically tied in the first Datafolha and Ibope polls.However, the PSDB candidate has the numerical advantage (2 percentage points).

The race is close, but these early moments favor Aé...


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Weaker Growth Amid Regional Discord
PERU - Report 10 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

The great surprise of the October 5th regional and local elections was the landslide of Cajamarca regional president Gregorio Santos, in jail on corruption charges. The results revived fears that this key mining territory will have protracted problems developing its v...


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Strong Growth in Q2, But Slowdown Has Started Already
HUNGARY - Forecast 09 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

In late September, the Central Statistical Office announced a revision of national accounts and government sector data, as part of a transition to ESA2010, Eurostat’s new methodological standard. So far, only part of the new data has been presented, and as a result,...


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The MTP of Diminished Expectations
TURKEY - Report 09 Oct 2014

The government announced the Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2015-17 yesterday, in a timely manner. This is typically done before the submission of the budget to parliament, by the constitutionally-set deadline of October 17th. Despite its shortcomings, the MTP is a very useful document that lay...


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Energy Reform: An Analysis Of Its Fiscal Implications
MEXICO - Report 08 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

A series of changes to articles 25, 27 and 28 of the Mexican Constitution regarding the energy sector that constitute part of the country’s broader energy reform appeared in the December 20, 2013 issue of the Diario Oficial de la Federación, the federal government’s d...


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Productivity Lags, Wages More So
MEXICO - Report 08 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

Labor productivity per hour worked in Mexico has showed relatively lackluster growth over the past five years, having risen by only 10% since the first quarter of 2009 largely on the strength of a 12% increase in activity in the dominant service sector. Productivit...