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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Weakness of gross fixed capital formation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Sep 2018

The decline of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was the factor that caused the greatest disappointment in the announcement of the GDP numbers for the second quarter. Based on our monthly indicator of GFCF, it is clear that part of that result was due to the truckers’ strike. However, not only...

Crisis management
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Sep 2018

These days, Macri´s administration has faced its second significant market run against the peso since the devaluation in May, which forced it to accelerate its macroeconomic convergence plan. This comprises reversing the excessive debt levels of the Central Bank and improving the poor fiscal outl...

MNB expects CPI-inflation to have peaked at 3.4% in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2018

Tomorrow at 9am BUD time, the KSH will come forward with its August CPI-inflation data. Analysts expect 3.3% yoy, slightly down from the 3.4% actual measured for July. The MNB previously predicted the same outcome, somewhat ambitiously adding that the yoy headline rate may have actually peaked in...

Growth loses momentum, as expected
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2018

The Turkish economy grew by 5.2%, y/y, and 0.9%, q/q, in the second quarter of 2018, broadly in line with expectations, which corresponds to a noticeable slowdown over the previous quarter – from Q1's (downwardly-revised) 7.3% and 1.5% growth rates, respectively. On the expenditure side, the m...

AKP's education by fire
TURKEY · Report · 09 Sep 2018

Skirmishes and preemptive air raids started in the Idlib Province, where more than 3.5 million Syrians wait in fear of an Assad campaign. The tri-partite Summit in Tehran failed to find a peaceful solution to the approaching human tragedy, as Russia and Iran rejected Turkey’s proposal of a truce....

Bolsonaro: Aftermath of the attack
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2018

​There is no doubt that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) benefits electorally from the knife attack he suffered on Thursday (September 6) in Juiz de Fora (MG), which left him seriously injured. Not only does the episode present him as a victim of the violence that he fought against but also as a victim of t...

Politics: How the new Congress is shaping up
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2018

It had long been known that President-elect Manuel Andrés López Obrador’s Morena party would enjoy a majority in both chambers of Congress with a little help from its coalition partners, but last minute reshuffling and political maneuvering means its caucus will wield an outright majority in the ...

Jair Bolsonaro stabbed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2018 · 1 response

The presidential candidate for the PSL party, Jair Bolsonaro, was attacked with a knife in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais. He was stabbed in the abdomen. The candidate is undergoing surgery. The knife may have pierced his liver. The episode will certainly have an impact on the campaign and wil...

South Africa’s current account deficit contracts, providing some relief from piling negative economic trends
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Sep 2018

The South African trade balance switched from a deficit of R15.2 billion in the first quarter of 2018 to a surplus of R41.9 billion in the second quarter. On the other hand, the shortfall on the services, income and current transfer account widened slightly from R204.2 billion in the first quarte...

Bolsonaro leads, Ciro grows and TV makes its first impact on the race
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2018

The new Ibope presidential poll, the first after the interviews with presidential candidates on Jornal Nacional and the first after electoral ads began to air on radio and TV, shows the following: 1. Bolsonaro is firmly in first place, but shows that he is being affected by the negative campaign...

The NBU raises prime rate up to18%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Sep 2018

The NBU Board increased prime rate by 0.5ppt up to 18.0%. The decision was approved amid easing inflation tendency: by July CPI slowed down to 3.6% ytd compared to +8.2% ytd a year ago. Monetary authorities are concerned about mounting inflation risks. Press-release mentioned potential capital ou...

Q2 GDP growth stronger than first estimate on agriculture and inventories
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2018

The second estimate of Q2 GDP, out this morning, has brought about 1% qoq, 4.6% yoy on sda basis, stronger than 0.9% qoq, 4.4% yoy first release. Growth still decelerated from the 4.7% yoy of Q1 (and 4.9% of Q4 2017), but only marginally, which is definitely a positive surprise.Regarding the deta...

August inflation at 6.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Sep 2018

Markets today were surprised anew by a higher than expected inflation rate – 6.4% for the month of August, rising from 5.7% in July. The headline figure exceeded even the BSP’s high-end forecast of 6.2%, as the month-on-month rate accelerated to 0.9% in August from 0.5% previously. Core inflation...

South Africa’s fears realized – the economy is in a recession
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Sep 2018

South Africa waited in anticipation to find out if the economy had somehow managed to grow positively or had contracted during the second quarter of 2018. This is because GDP growth recorded negative 2.6% q/q (saar) in the first quarter of the year, and another contraction would place the South A...

July data paints mixed picture and AMLO lacks police rebuilding plan
MEXICO · Report · 04 Sep 2018

Not all the news has been negative. Both business and consumer sentiment continue to climb further into optimistic ranges especially when it comes to their expectations as to how the economy is likely to perform. While export activity and construction investment softened in past months, private c...

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