Bolsonaro: Aftermath of the attack
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2018

​There is no doubt that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) benefits electorally from the knife attack he suffered on Thursday (September 6) in Juiz de Fora (MG), which left him seriously injured. Not only does the episode present him as a victim of the violence that he fought against but also as a victim of t...

Politics: How the new Congress is shaping up
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2018

It had long been known that President-elect Manuel Andrés López Obrador’s Morena party would enjoy a majority in both chambers of Congress with a little help from its coalition partners, but last minute reshuffling and political maneuvering means its caucus will wield an outright majority in the ...

Jair Bolsonaro stabbed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2018 · 1 response

The presidential candidate for the PSL party, Jair Bolsonaro, was attacked with a knife in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais. He was stabbed in the abdomen. The candidate is undergoing surgery. The knife may have pierced his liver. The episode will certainly have an impact on the campaign and wil...

South Africa’s current account deficit contracts, providing some relief from piling negative economic trends
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Sep 2018

The South African trade balance switched from a deficit of R15.2 billion in the first quarter of 2018 to a surplus of R41.9 billion in the second quarter. On the other hand, the shortfall on the services, income and current transfer account widened slightly from R204.2 billion in the first quarte...

Bolsonaro leads, Ciro grows and TV makes its first impact on the race
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2018

The new Ibope presidential poll, the first after the interviews with presidential candidates on Jornal Nacional and the first after electoral ads began to air on radio and TV, shows the following: 1. Bolsonaro is firmly in first place, but shows that he is being affected by the negative campaign...

The NBU raises prime rate up to18%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Sep 2018

The NBU Board increased prime rate by 0.5ppt up to 18.0%. The decision was approved amid easing inflation tendency: by July CPI slowed down to 3.6% ytd compared to +8.2% ytd a year ago. Monetary authorities are concerned about mounting inflation risks. Press-release mentioned potential capital ou...

Q2 GDP growth stronger than first estimate on agriculture and inventories
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2018

The second estimate of Q2 GDP, out this morning, has brought about 1% qoq, 4.6% yoy on sda basis, stronger than 0.9% qoq, 4.4% yoy first release. Growth still decelerated from the 4.7% yoy of Q1 (and 4.9% of Q4 2017), but only marginally, which is definitely a positive surprise.Regarding the deta...

August inflation at 6.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Sep 2018

Markets today were surprised anew by a higher than expected inflation rate – 6.4% for the month of August, rising from 5.7% in July. The headline figure exceeded even the BSP’s high-end forecast of 6.2%, as the month-on-month rate accelerated to 0.9% in August from 0.5% previously. Core inflation...

South Africa’s fears realized – the economy is in a recession
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Sep 2018

South Africa waited in anticipation to find out if the economy had somehow managed to grow positively or had contracted during the second quarter of 2018. This is because GDP growth recorded negative 2.6% q/q (saar) in the first quarter of the year, and another contraction would place the South A...

July data paints mixed picture and AMLO lacks police rebuilding plan
MEXICO · Report · 04 Sep 2018

Not all the news has been negative. Both business and consumer sentiment continue to climb further into optimistic ranges especially when it comes to their expectations as to how the economy is likely to perform. While export activity and construction investment softened in past months, private c...

Swallowing frogs
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Sep 2018 · 1 response

A new concept is taking shape in Colombia: a president without a congressional majority. Though we’ve yet to see how such an arrangement could work in Colombia, the experiences of neighboring governments, like Vicente Fox’s in Mexico and Pedro Pablo Kuzcynski’s in Peru, are not encouraging. C...

The MPC signals that tightening could be approaching
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Sep 2018

Recent economic indicators point to slowing PC demand domestically, supporting a low inflation environment. The last policy statement had a somewhat hawking bias. Although a rate hike cannot be ruled out this year, much will depend on the shekel and inflationary trends. It is more likely to occu...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2018

With less than a month to go before the first presidential election round, without any inkling of which two candidates will advance to the second round, the economic scenario depends as never before on political outcomes. Although some observers try to minimize the differences in the candidates’ ...

​The end of fiscal gradualism
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 03 Sep 2018

The economic turbulences of the last week which drove, among others, the FX rate above 40 AR$/US$, induced president Macri to give today a rather motivational address to the nation. He announced changes in its cabinet and Argentina's economic policy. In short, he proclaimed an acceleration in tim...

The Allure of Bread and Circuses
INDONESIA · Report · 03 Sep 2018

The 2018 Asian Games began a few days ago, and the headlines have been filled with stories of the athletes’ heroic achievements. Just as in the Roman Empire, this grand event has managed to draw public attention away from various problems, such as the heated preparations for the presidential elec...