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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The deceleration of GDP: Growth of only 2.2% in 2018
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Apr 2018

At the start of the year (see the Weekly Bulletin “Economic Activity Recovering More Strongly”, of February 5th), a large number of indicators portended faster growth of investments. Among these were the decline in the stock of new residential units and the improved credit conditions for business...

Quo Vadis, Turkey?
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Apr 2018

The Turkish economy closed 2017 with turbo-charged growth -- of 7.4%, and heightened vulnerabilities as a result, with inflation running at double digits and the current account deficit at a disconcerting 5.6% of GDP. Going forward, the government has one priority in mind, which is to sustain thi...

The Central bank leaves prime rate unchanged at 17.0%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Today the Board of the Central bank decided to leave prime rate unchanged at 17.0%. The decision was approved despite March inflation sped up to +1.1% m/m (+0.9% m/m in February) and despite no progress with the IMF. This decision might look a bit counter logical amid inflation speed up but in es...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Apr 2018

Lula has started serving his jail term for the crimes of corruption and money laundering, and the country was not set inflame, as had been promised by his party’s propaganda and had been the claim on countless earlier occasions. On the contrary, his imprisonment strengthened, in Brazil and the wo...

Continuing growth despite IMF issues
UKRAINE · Forecast · 11 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Ukraine’s economy is clearly enroute to recovery. GDP grew 2.5% y/y in 2017, on the back of private consumption, which rose +7.6% y/y, and local investment, which jumped +18.1% y/y. GDP would have grown even more if not for a -6.3% y/y drop in the grain harvest, and a -16.3% y/y decline in coal e...

The banking crisis got worse
INDIA · Report · 10 Apr 2018

Three remarkable events took place in the last two weeks. A corruption investigation began concerning the CEO of the largest private bank, ICICI Bank. RBI forced the exit of the CEO of Axis Bank, a large private bank. And central investigation agencies have begun asking RBI employees (including a...

Xi Jinping’s measured Boao speech
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Apr 2018

Xi Jinping made a surprisingly concessionary speech at the Boao Forum on April 10 in response to the escalating trade war instigated by the Trump Administration. We had expected him to avoid making any overt signs of concessions to Trump’s trade threats. Perhaps we underestimated how little these...

Inflation rising, after a break in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Apr 2018

We revised down our monthly inflation rate estimate for March to 62 percent, significantly lower than our 89 percent forecast.This reflects the lagged effect of the decline in the price of the dollar in the parallel market in February (-8%) which interrupted the vertiginous January surge (+123 pe...

It ain’t over until it’s over
COLOMBIA · Report · 09 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Germán Vargas-Lleras is the candidate chosen by president Santos to succeed him. This is the conclusion of the recent coalition between the U-Party and Vargas-Lleras. Santos will use all his power to further this coalition and to prevent Uribe’s protégé, Iván Duque, from winning the presidency. R...

STF may resume discussion on arrest after a second instance conviction and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Apr 2018

Once again, eyes are on the STF, which could resume discussions on imprisonment after conviction in a second instance. Michel Temer may conclude changes to his ministerial team. While he is in Peru, for the Summit of the Americas, the Presidency will be held by STF President Cármen Lúcia. An Ipso...

Economics: The economics of electoral preferences
MEXICO · Report · 09 Apr 2018

Although the economy is one of the two main areas of policy voters are most concerned about (the other being security), the various candidates have failed so far to offer the sort of precise economic policy proposals that might sway the considerable percentage of voters who remain uncommitted. Th...

Politics: A demographic look at the race
MEXICO · Report · 09 Apr 2018 · 1 response

The presidential contest is now in full swing, with the three major contenders and a single independent anxious to consolidate support in key constituencies and woo voters away from their rivals. They all begin with high levels of name recognition, but none of them are viewed positively by most o...

The Evolution of the fiscal picture
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Apr 2018

The central government’s primary result has improved markedly in the past few months, with the deficit going from 3.2% of GDP in October to 1.6% of GDP in February. However, virtually all the improvement in that span was based on non-recurring revenues, while the recurring primary result continue...

Modest shekel weakening will push inflation higher in April
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Apr 2018

Average wages are accelerating, which is supportive of some inflationary pressure. The shekel has weakened by 3.3% YTD (against the basket) as some Israeli institutions are increasing their FX exposure. We currently expect inflation to increase by 0.9% cumulatively in the next three months (in pa...

Fidesz has narrowly won back constitutional majority
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Apr 2018

At today's parliamentary election, Fidesz has narrowly won back its previous two-third majority, providing it with the right to amend the constitution and high-power parliamentary acts. With 95% of all votes counted, Fidesz has 66.8% of all seats, followed by 13.1% held by the radical right-wing ...

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