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Support for the economic agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2019

The Senate Constitution and Justice Committee will hold several public hearings on Pension Reform. On Friday, August 23, Senator Tasso Jereissati (PSDC-CE) presents a preview of his report. Minister Paulo Guedes discusses the Federative Pact with senators. Congress meets to vote on the LDO and ve...

Politics: The National Guard’s enigmatic rollout
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2019

It comes as no surprise that security remains the most pressing problem on citizens’ minds today as 2019 is well on its way toward surpassing 2018 as the year with the highest homicide rate at least since 1989. The problem is highlighted by a resurgence of large-scale gangland massacres, especial...

Russia keen to avoid a nuclear arms race
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Aug 2019

On August 18 the Russian Minister Defense announced his country's intention to avert a nuclear arms race. The United States repudiated the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty earlier in August 2019. The US alleges that Russia possesses a type of nuclear arms that are prohibited under the ter...

Deterioration of the external scenario
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2019

​The indications have increased that the projection for growth of 0.8% in 2019 is optimistic. One of the reasons is the worse external situation. The trade tensions between China and the United States have created a climate of uncertainty harmful to global trade and investment; Germany’s GDP rece...

Hong Kong is distracting us from the growth and credit data
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Aug 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: * While nothing can be ruled out in such a politically complicated environment, the cost of a direct intervention by forces loyal to Beijing into Hong Kong is very high, making it unlikely. An intervention would cause a sharp fall in Chinese exports ...

Underlying growth remains steady in Q2
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Aug 2019

Headline Q2 2019 GDP growth reached 1.0% saar following 4.7% in Q1 2019. * Growth excluding import taxes reached 3.1%, following 3.2% in Q1 2019. This is more reflective of real activity, due to the higher taxes on new vehicles on April 1. * Exports (excluding diamonds and start-ups...

​Gulf weekly: Aramco call and regional tensions disturb Eid holidays
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Aug 2019

Welcome to our first weekly economic and political update for the Gulf. Last week was quiet on the domestic economic front, given the Eid al-Adha holidays, which meant that government departments were closed all week and local markets were also closed for most of the week. However, there were sti...

Under pressure
TURKEY · Report · 18 Aug 2019 · 1 response

Turkey’s political risks shift quickly, but the sum-total never declines. Erdogan administration survived the summer without a disaster by swapping one threat for another. Alas, it wasted very precious time on structural reform and fiscal austerity, dithering on how to end AKP’s decline in popula...

No change in the sovereign credit rating from Fitch and S&P on August 16
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Aug 2019

Both Fitch Ratings and S&P had a revision date for their BBB/Stable sovereign credit ratings for Hungary on August 16. However, both agencies refrained from changing the ratings on this occasion. S&P did not even pick up the issue, whereas Fitch confirmed its BBB/Stable, saying that Hungary deser...

​Hernán Lacunza replaces Nicolas Dujovne as Economic Minister
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Aug 2019

After some days of rumors that former economic minister Nicolas Dujovne wanted to resign to his post, the government announced this Saturday that Hernán Lacunza, former Economic Minister of the Province of Buenos Aires, assumes the position left behind by Dujovne. Dujovne felt responsible for the...

The dire fiscal problem of the states
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Aug 2019

The pension reform has raised the minimum retirement age for all categories of employees, however kept privileges for police personnel (including state police forces) and teachers. In this Report we show that many state governments have exceeded the limit of 60% of Net Current Revenue (NCR) for p...

Moreno's hardships in the way of the IMF Agreement?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Aug 2019

President Moreno has stated he is not seeking re-election. However, it seems he wants to finish his office term as a popular president, or at least not be forced out of office. He recently had to face the protests of thousands of teachers who retired under the promise of former President Corre...

Zelenskiy gets (almost) all the power
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Aug 2019

After a new party led by comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy gained majority power in Ukraine in the July 21st parliamentary elections, Zelenskiy stepped handily into the presidency. None of Ukraine’s previous five presidents has come close to wielding such power from the very beginning of their terms. ...

It is time for a weaker forint in H2
HUNGARY · Report · 15 Aug 2019

The preliminary Q2 GDP data reflected some deceleration on unadjusted basis, but only very little, and even that was almost fully cancelled out by calendar and seasonal adjustments. Thus, GDP once again beat everyone’s expectation and showed in fact the strongest yoy growth rate in Europe. The li...

This time is different: comparing 2008 and 2018 in the performance of the automobile industry
INDIA · Report · 15 Aug 2019

We compare 2008 and 2018 as seen in three components of the automobile industry – HCV (heavy commercial vehicles), passenger cars and two-wheelers. In all three cases, we work with seasonally adjusted levels, and express the starting value as an index of 100. This permits direct comparison of two...

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