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Russian economic trends: The economy is not what it seems
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Feb 2020

As the Russian economy reportedly grew by a mere 1.3% in 2019, and this rate of growth looks much lower than the revised 2.5% in 2018, the key question now is not only what has caused this deceleration but also where the economy is heading in 2020. Rosstat reported that industrial output was ...

We cannot rule out additional monetary measures today
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Feb 2020

Recent data (BoI Composite Index) suggests that economic growth remains steady and in line with long-term potential. Nevertheless, a declining inflation environment, the strong shekel and elevated global risks will support the doves on the MPC. The market is not expecting a rate cut today, but we...

Russia containing coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2020

On February 21 Moscow City authorities announced that they were quarantining 2500 people who have arrived from China. Russia has had 2 confirmed cases of coronavirus. The reduced trade with China is costing Russia USD 16 million per day said the Ministry of Finance. Chinese phone manufacturers ha...

We cannot rule out additional monetary measures today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Feb 2020

Highlights of Weekly Report: Growth remains at potential in early 2020 The composite index increased by 0.25% m/m, similar to the pace in Q419. Revenues from the total economy increased by 2.6% saar in Q419. Nevertheless, manufacturing contracted by 0.7% saar in Q419. The PMI declined by 1.7 poin...

Protests over election suspension shake the country
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 23 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Since last week, the country has been shaken. Following the suspension of municipal elections on Sunday, February 16, numerous peaceful protests have been organized in the main urban centers of the country. The most notable have occurred in Santo Domingo, the capital city, in front of the Central...

Chinese built logistics center in Kyrgyzstan cancelled
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2020

On February 21 it was announced that the center in Ata Bashi will not go ahead. It was to be called Naryn Free Economic Zone will no longer have a logistic center built by the Chinese. The center was going to cost USD 275 million. A joint statement was issued by both parties to the agreement. One...

Data vs reality
TURKEY · Report · 23 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Idlib clashes continue, but we don’t expect full-scale military engagement until the March 5th summit among Erdogan, Putin, Merkel and Macron. Our end-game scenario still envisages Ankara battling Damascus to keep its share of Idlib. Covid-19 is devastating Iran as we write these lines, and Tu...

Essential CIS Politics: February 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2020

• Russia prepares for poll on far-reaching changes to the constitution; • In Azerbaijan the ruling party was comfortably re-elected in a disputed election; • Ukraine and Russia made more tentative moves towards peace – though Minsk Agreement now being questioned; • Clashes between native Kazak...

​Gulf weekly: Lebanon nears default, Sharjah downgraded and Kuwait has a new finance minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Feb 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The OPEC+ meeting will not be brought forward as coronavirus concerns ease somewhat. * Tensions in Yemen increased after Houthi rebels shot down ...

South Africa Conference Call - South Africa 2020 - The Budget, the SONA and the country's ratings
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Join us for a conference call as our Johannesburg-based South Africa Country Analyst Iraj Abedian explores the implications of the 2020 State of the Nation and Budget announcements on the prospects for the country's growth, political dynamics and social stability, and sovereign debt ratings.

Israel Conference Call - Israel after the elections: The prospects for stability and fiscal consolidation
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Feb 2020

Join us for a conference call as our Tel Aviv-based Israel Country Analyst Jonathan Katz explores the implications of the March 2020 elections on the prospects for the country's political stability, fiscal dynamics and growth.

Virus and the Chinese stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Feb 2020

I received this question: How big can any new stimulus be without debt leverage going through the roof? China so far has soft-pedaled its economic response to the economic impact of the coronavirus. We’ve seen a couple of short-term measures, including lower lending rates, short-term loans to ...

Former Yukos shareholders awarded USD 50 billion by court
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Feb 2020

On February 17 the Court of Appeal in the Netherlands found favor of onetime shareholders of Yukov. The judgment comes after 15 years of legal wrangling. Russia is now supposed to pay USD 50 billion in compensation to the former shareholders of the Russian oil supermajor. In 2003 the Yukos CEO Mi...

​Latest on Idlib: Russia delegation arrives in Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Feb 2020 · 1 response

I am still in no position to craft an analysis about the war in Idlib between Turkey and the Damascus regime. Fighting rages in two fronts, report Turkish press and international sources, but it is noteworthy that Turkish press and media have suddenly dialed down the intensity of the coverage, wh...

Russian economic trends: The economy is not what it seems (report preview)
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Feb 2020

Rosstat reported that industrial output was up by a mere 1.1% in January, implying seemingly a rather slow start for the year. Manufacturing, however, expanded by a more impressive 3.9% y-o-y growth, which was on a par with 4Q19 y-o-y growth (the same 3.9%). Mining, power generation and supply of...

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