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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Uzbek currency to float freely
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Aug 2019

On August 20 it was announced that the Uzbek currency (the UZS (pronounced 'Som')) will float freely. Up until now the Uzbek Government had a cap on the currency's daily fluctuations and the government limited a citizen's right to buy other currencies. This is part of the government's liberalizat...

President of Turkmenistan disproves rumors of death
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Aug 2019

After weeks of speculation that he is dead the President of Turkmenistan has made some public appearances. Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov hosted a conference in Turkmenistan on August 12. The Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev was among those who attended. Berdymukhamedov appeared only slightly d...

​Gulf weekly: Kuwait's emir has a health scare
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Aug 2019

The Gulf has begun to wake up from the long summer and Eid holidays. Notable policy developments over the last week included an extension of customs duties in the UAE (a move other Gulf states are likely to emulate) and further moves towards the Aramco IPO. Tension with Iran and in Yemen continue...

Government evaluation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2019

VEJA/FSB Survey: Divided electorate and Bolsonaro's favoritism in 2022 The poll conducted by the FSB institute and published in Veja magazine shows that voters are divided over Jair Bolsonaro's government. While 48% of respondents disapprove of his governing style, 44% support it.

Tighter Iran sanctions should boost oil prices in 2020
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 23 Aug 2019

Iran sanctions will take 1m b/d off the market in 2020 and its response will increase the geopolitical risk premium. The combination of these factors should boost oil prices to an average of $65-70 in 2020. This is a slightly out-of-consensus view, as most forecasters see prices as flat or fallin...

What can China lose in Hong Kong?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Aug 2019

How important is Hong Kong to China? What will happen -- if and when the protests end -- to the “special” relationship in the financial sector between Hong Kong and the mainland? The argument is often made that China cannot afford to disrupt Hong Kong due to the important role it plays in providi...

South Africa is unlikely to need IMF funding – for now
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Aug 2019

There has been much speculations and political angst recently about whether or not South Africa will need to approach the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial assistance. This has come about due to South Africa’s mounting fiscal pressures, which in turn are mostly the result of the cou...

US oil imports from Russia highest since 2013
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2019

The US Energy Information Administration stated on August 20 that US oil and petroleum imports are the highest since 2013. The US bought almost 62 million barrels of crude or petroleum from Russia from January to May 2019. This is almost a 10% increase on the equivalent period in 2018. Russian oi...

Baselessly labeled a “Currency Manipulator”
CHINA · Report · 22 Aug 2019

Growth slowed in July. Industrial output was up 4.8% y/y, down 0.4 pps from both April and May, falling to a record low rate. The main causes were low investment and consumption, sentiment mostly driven by “trade war.” Investment was up 5.1% y/y, down 0.4 pps from Q2, and down 2.4 pps from Q4 201...

The President signs into law the new credit bill, pushing for consumer debt write-off
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Aug 2019

South African consumers have been hard hit by the effects of the country’s current tough economic environment, which is compounded by increasing living costs and rising unemployment. This has not only resulted in increasing total consumer debt, but has also led to total savings' being negatively ...

Essential CIS Politics: August 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2019

More US sanctions on Russia are unlikely to have much impact. Large-scale demonstrations surprise Russia but peter out. The conflict in eastern Ukraine is largely calming down. Atambaev, the former President of Kyrgyzstan, has been arrested after violent clashes around his home.

​New risks loom large: HDP mayors and Idlib clashes
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Aug 2019

In our Monthly Report, I‘d written that Turkey’s risk topography changes every day like kaleidoscope, but the sum total hardly moves. Two new tail-risks emerged on the horizon about which I wish to warn our readers, before I tell the tales. First, it is no longer inconceivable that Turkish and Sy...

US sanctions in Venezuela and Iran boost Russian oil revenue
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2019

Russia earned an additional USD 905 million from November 2018 to July 2019 due to US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. The Russian Urals blend of crude has traded at premium to Brent. The OPEC production cut has also helped Russia. There is not much sour crude on the market. Urals is at its zenit...

The paradox of losing before the elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 19 Aug 2019 · 1 response

The unexpected electoral result of the primaries stunned the government and left the president with a paradoxical dilemma. How can Macri recognize a defeat if the actual elections have not yet taken place? And yet, how can he convincingly help in the upcoming electoral process, if the primaries s...

Economics: What is measured can be improved
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2019

Last week we took up the results of Inegi’s most recent National Household Income and Expenditure Survey and the accompanying analysis by Coneval of how the varying forms of poverty are evolving, including evidence of significant setbacks recorded by some multidimensional poverty indicators that ...

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