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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A rate hike in November remains a real possibility
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Nov 2018

Headline inflation in October reached 1.2% y/y, core 1.0% y/y, and appears well entrenched within the target range. GDP growth appears soft in Q318 (2.3% saar), but excluding taxes on imports, GDP growth hit 3%. We see a near 50% chance of a rate hike in November, despite the fact that there will...

Excellent fiscal data for Q3
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Nov 2018

The general government sector's net borrowing requirement was the equivalent of -0.5% of GDP in Q3, i.e. the government had a small net financing surplus in that quarter. That was a major positive change from Q3 2017, when the net borrowing requirement was a considerable 3.2% of GDP. As a result,...

Enjoy it while it lasts
TURKEY · Report · 18 Nov 2018 · 1 response

Relations with the US could improve further, if the Trump administration decides to probe Pastor Gulen’s involvement in the 2016 aborted coup. In any case, we detect few landmines in the diplomatic landscape for Erdogan, who has a very strong incentive to preserve the status quo with the US, Germ...

RusHydro debuts Eurobond
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2018

On 15 November RusHydro debuted the largest ever Russian Eurobond denominated in Renminbi to date. The issuance was for 3 year bonds worth USD 216 million (in Yuan). This is the very first time that a Russian company has issued a Eurobond for offshore investors in Chinese currency. Russian compan...

The troubles of diplomacy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2018

The US intention to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty has caused a certain level of anxiety in Moscow as it may potentially lead to a new round in the arms race. However, there is also some optimism among Russia’s elite because disarmament talks are one of the few topics ...

Macroeconomic policy is at crossroads
HUNGARY · Report · 16 Nov 2018

GDP growth remained markedly more robust than expected in Q3 2018, due to strength of the non-government services sector. Rapid growth was also supported by construction activity, whereas industrial output was held back by car manufacturing and the weakening cycle in the Euro Area, and consumer d...

Does monetary policy work?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Nov 2018

Does Chinese monetary policy work? If the central bank changes interest rates, does the market react? Or are interest rates irrelevant and only fiscal policy – direct intervention – effective? These questions are essential to understand the effectiveness of interest rate policy in China. Ultim...

Stress in NBFCs and real estate companies
INDIA · Report · 16 Nov 2018

We review the stages of the slow-moving crisis in Indian finance. At present, NBFCs are facing a stress test. We analyze the small subset of listed NBFCs and identify the firms that have fared the best and worst since the date of the IL&FS default. We also identify the firms with the highest and ...

Kazakh Bank to IPO on LSE
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Nov 2018

Kaspi Bank announced on November 9 that it will launch an IPO next year, listing shares on the London Stock Exchange. Kaspi is one of Kazakhstan's most profitable banks. It has made a profit of over USD 200 million so far this year. The announcement came on the same day that Vladimir Putin met Pr...

Policy rates hiked anew
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Nov 2018

Citing the need to be proactive in managing the many external and domestic risks, the Monetary Board today raised its policy rates by 25bp, bringing the overnight RRP rate to 4.75%, a cumulative 175bp increase year to date. Even as it continued to tighten policy, it presented inflation forecasts ...

A new census portrays a very different country
COLOMBIA · Report · 14 Nov 2018

Preliminary 2018 census results delivered many surprises, most posing severe challenges for future economic and social policies. First, there are 45.5 million people living in Colombia, not the 50 million many had been projecting for years. Among major public policy implications: we are richer th...

Q3 GDP was stronger than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Nov 2018

GDP growth in Q3 was reported by the KSH at an unadjusted 4.8% yoy, just slightly down from 4.9% yoy in Q2, and substantially stronger than the 4.3% yoy analyst expectation (which we were in agreement with). This means 4.7% yoy cumulative growth for the first three quarters. On seasonally and day...

Economics: Pemex and the state of the industry
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2018

The recovery in international oil prices bolstered Pemex’s sales and short-term financial situation in the third quarter, but its operating results leave much to be desired. The company’s oil production continues to plummet owing to deep cuts to Pemex’s exploration budget that led the rate of ...

Politics: The challenge of Central American caravans
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2018

The Central American caravans of recent weeks have had much more of a political impact than past efforts by migrants in the region to collectively enter and in many cases cross Mexican territory, especially given the way US President Donald Trump made it his focus ahead of last week’s midterm ele...

Russia opposes oil production cut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2018

On 12 November President Putin announced that he does not want Russian consumers to be hurt by an oil price rise.On 11 November OPEC met in Abu Dhabi. There was a spirited debate about an oil production cut. The aim would be to raise prices. Iran and Saudi Arabia are both members of OPEC despite ...

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