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SA 2017 Budget Speech and President Zuma's Cabinet Reshuffle
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 21 Feb 2017

Tomorrow is SA's 2017 Budget Speech day! The usual annual hype around the fiscal policies is once again dominated by the political games at play surrounding the Minister, and more broadly around the control of the National Treasury. In my last commentary I warned that the probability of the forth...

Inflation, Exchange Rate and Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Feb 2017

Inflation has been falling steeply, as well as the 12-month projections. The negative GDP gap is belatedly producing its effects. In light of this, the Central Bank will continue lowering the SELIC rate, which we project to reach 9.5% at the end of 2017, and this will not be the end of the easing...

ELECTIONS: Uncertainty and Anger
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Feb 2017

By 10:20 this morning 88.4% of votes have been counted giving the official candidate Lenin Moreno 39.11% of valid votes and Guillermo Lasso 28.30%. With these results, a second round will be necessary. However, we will have to wait for the official announcement from the National Electoral Council...

Caution Against Excessive Optimism Regarding Growth in 2017
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Feb 2017

With the publication of the latest IBC-Br, the probability has increased that GDP contracted in the last quarter of 2016, with a decline for the year of around 3.5%. Although the economy should start to recover shortly, something more will have to occur for GDP to grow more than 0.5% in 2017. In ...

Trade Blockade Aggravates Political Situation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Feb 2017

Surprisingly but offensive near Avdiyivka did not remove trade blockade of occupied territories from agenda. As soon as fighting eased trade blockade again took the headlines. What’s more, volunteering squads expanded their control on many other routes. Trade blockade still remains fragmentary; h...

MNB Base Rate Significantly Negative in Real Terms
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Feb 2017

As CPI-inflation rose to 2.3% in January, the MNB base rate has turned significantly negative in real terms. And inflation is expected to rise further, even if at moderate speed, throughout 2017-2018. As a result, central bank policy in the forthcoming period will have to be determined mainly by ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 19 Feb 2017

The politics section starts with the summary results of recent polls, which show the Yes votes ahead by 2 percentage points or so. Other evidence points to an even closer race. AKP’s insurmountable advantages and the crackdown on No campaigners should secure the ballot for Erdogan, but it will be...

Cock Not Bull
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 17 Feb 2017

​Against a backdrop of policy uncertainties globally and locally, we are expecting GDP to grow 6.5% this year of the rooster, sliding to 6.3% next year; not quite the bullish picture that government envisions, i.e., of growth accelerating to 7-8% by 2018. Our outlook, moreover, entails a rooster...

Economics: Troubling 2016 Budget/Debt Results
MEXICO · Report · 15 Feb 2017

At the end of January the Ministry of Finance released preliminary data on the public finances for year-end 2016. The data pose many points of concern, and from various angles. It confirmed a considerable rise in financial investment (170.1%) primarily resulting from the Energy Ministry's inject...

Politics: Rules of the 2018 Candidate Game
MEXICO · Report · 15 Feb 2017 · 1 response

The basic rules are essentially in place for the presidential succession process in which Mexico will be fully immersed in less than six months, along with the corresponding congressional and local races that will be in play June 3, 2018. Opposition parties appear to have given up on proposals fo...

CNT/MDA Poll: Disapproval on the rise
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Feb 2017

The CNT/MDA poll released today shows an increase of 7.4 percentage points in negative evaluations (bad/very bad) of the Michel Temer administration. Between October 2016 and February 2017, there was a reduction of 4.3 percentage points in positive evaluations (great/good). Regular evaluations os...

Starting a New Cycle
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2017

The Russian leadership is cautiously optimistic about future relations with the United States now that Donald Trump has taken office. Although their interactions have been very limited, Moscow thinks that having a favorable bargaining position in the Middle East may result in persuading the US to...

The country is on fire, but not the economy
CHILE · Report · 14 Feb 2017

Chile is being pummeled by natural disasters. This time, more than one million acres of forest in the center and south of Chile have gone up in flames. Although the initial lag in the government's response may indicate some slow decision-making, the true culprit is a Chilean state woefully unprep...

Weaker GDP, faster inflation, little surprise
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Feb 2017

Two important pieces of data, Q4 GDP and January inflation came out this morning. In sum, GDP growth continued to decelerate and the preliminary Q4 number was moderately weaker than expected, whereas inflation rose markedly in yoy terms, predominantly driven by rising fuel prices, and it met exac...

Inflation dynamics remain strong
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2017

​Prices are usually reset by businesses in Venezuela at the beginning of each year. In January 2017, price increases were intense reflecting expectations associated with the accelerated rise in the parallel market rate in November (+86 percent) and December (+ 52 percent) and its continued rise, ...

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