Politics: PRI Surprises, PAN Disappoints
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jun 2017

We don’t yet have final results from Sunday’s state elections, but the preliminary results as of Monday afternoon make clear which parties won most of the contests. The PRI apparently managed to hold off strong challenges in two crucial gubernatorial contests, including the all-important State...

Week of June 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jun 2017

An important week for the government, especially for President Michel Temer: the TSE begins discussions in the case that could remove him from power. Allies will monitor the discussions. The PSDB meets on Thursday to discuss the political environment. In the Senate, the government will try to dis...

The Political Crisis and the Economic Picture
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Jun 2017

With a large negative GDP gap and falling inflation, the interest rate will continue to fall, but the Central Bank has already indicated that due to the uncertainties, the next cuts will be smaller. Our projections before the crisis were that the SELIC rate would reach 8% at the end of 2017 and s...

GDP in the First Quarter
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Jun 2017

After two years of contraction, GDP expanded strongly in the first quarter of 2017, at an annualized rate of 4.3%. But the details of this growth show that the improvement was more apparent than real. First, the result was almost totally due to the performance of agriculture, whose output grew by...

GDP for 2016-17 at 7.1% despite demonetization and a slower Q4
INDIA · Report · 05 Jun 2017

The latest release of India’s GDP data indicates that the economy grew at 7.1% for the full year 2016-17. There are two puzzles in this data. The first is that growth in Q3, the demonetization quarter, was higher than Q4, when the pick-up in demand was visible. The second is that even though GDP ...

Headline Lower, Trends Challenging
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2017

Consumer prices rose by 0.45% in May, slightly higher than expected, but the 12-month rate declined as envisaged, to 11.7% from just under 12% in April. The drop in producer prices was more significant, which eased from 16.4% to 15.3%, y/y, suggesting that cost-push pressures have begun to ease, ...

The IMF approves pension reform, the Cabinet reports
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Jun 2017

On June 4th the Cabinet put on its web-site scan of a letter from the IMF (see below) which states that the IMF “can support the draft law in its current form”. I do not know what ‘current form’ the IMF is talking about but in any case it’s a good signal for our cooperation with the Fund. By the ...

Don’t Worry, Be Happy–For Now
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jun 2017

Turkey is enjoying an exceptional period of political calm, albeit one enforced by an iron fist. The impending cabinet change is unlikely to signal better policies or early elections. On the other hand, during the transition from the parliamentary to the presidential regime, policy visibility is ...

Goldman Sachs’s controversial operation
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Jun 2017 · 1 response

The history of the Pdvsa 2022(N) bond sold a few days ago by BCV to Goldman Sachs ($2.8 billion), Nomura Securities ($100 million) and a third yet unidentified institution ($100 million) began in October 2014.

Policy maker appointment to Presidential Administration highlights new media priority ahead of election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2017

Maksut Shadaev, a Moscow minister for IT and social media, is joining the senior ranks of the Presidential Administration – a move that underscores the government’s increased attention to new media policy.

Dicom: An underwhelming debut
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Jun 2017

BCV published the results of the first auction of the new Dicom system on May 31, 24 hours later than promised. The list of beneficiaries has been published as we write. Experience to date tells us that BCV is afraid of letting the Dicom rate get close to parallel market level. The forex flow ...

Sistema prepares to contest Rosneft in landmark court case
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2017

The president of London-listed AFK Sistema, Mikhail Shamolin, has said the holding’s legal position is unshakeable and that it will fight head-on claims by Russian state oil major Rosneft for USD 3bn, as part of a suit filed in a Bashkir court in mid-May.

Odebrecht Accusations Stir Political Earthquake
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 02 Jun 2017

Amid weeks of public speculation, the Attorney General has finally accused 14 people in the DR of participating in Odebrecht’s bribery scheme here. Most of the accused have high political profiles; many are close to ex-president Leonel Fernandez, among them former ministers; the president of the ...

President Zuma vs An Agitating South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 02 Jun 2017

May 2017 was not a good month for President Zuma and June started on an even shakier ground. All around him the ground is shifting, yet he remains defiant and somehow confident that this time too he will also be able to beat all odds. Political pundits are beginning to doubt. Some unusual develop...

Mexico's Political Perspectives
MEXICO · Presentation · 01 Jun 2017

The gasoline price hike and issues of corruption have tanked presidential approval. Structural reforms are being questioned, and institutions have low credibility, posing risks for Mexico’s governance. Electoral alliances and a coalition government are the true option for the next government.