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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Pessimistic about Pension Reform this year, Congress believes in governability with Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2018

​A poll conducted by Arko Advice with 164 federal representatives (October 9-11) shows that, regardless of who wins the elections, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) or Fernando Haddad (PT), the majority is pessimistic about approving Pension Reform this year.

Nothing has been decided yet, but everything is being considered
ECUADOR · Forecast · 17 Oct 2018 · 1 response

The second quarter of 2018 ended with a small recovery in growth from Q1, but we do not think it is a convincing sign of a full economic recovery. Year over year GDP grew 0.9%, and quarter over quarter it is up 0.4%. Spending – both government and household – is supporting this upward trend, incr...

Bolsonaro leads by more than 20 million votes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2018

A study conducted by Arko Advice based on the Ibope poll and taking into consideration intended votes for candidates by region shows that Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) totals around 22 million votes. This means that to take the lead, Haddad would have to win over approxima...

Ibope poll reinforces Bolsonaro’s advantage
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2018

The first Ibope poll for the second round of the presidential election shows that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) has 59% of valid votes. Fernando Haddad (PT) has 41%. The 18-percentage point lead for Bolsonaro is higher than the 16-point lead registered by Datafolha last week. The poll reinforces Bolsonaro...

The trade deficit expands further in Q3
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Oct 2018

In Q318 the trade deficit increased by 26% q/q. * Manufacturing exports declined by 3.0% q/q. * Imports of consumer goods increased by 2.0%. * Imports of raw materials increased by 2.1%. * The trade deficit reached 7.7bn in Q318 following 6.1bn in Q2. The CA surplus is expected...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Oct 2018

The election results brought at least two surprises in the eyes of press observers, pollsters and political scientists alike: the unprecedented legislative turnover rate – more than half of the Chamber of Deputies and 80% of the Senate (of the 54 seats up for grabs, out of 81 total seats) – and t...

Perspectives for the second round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2018

Presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) undergoes medical evaluation on Thursday, October 18, to find out if he will be able to actively campaign and take part in the debates. This week several electoral polls will be released ahead of the runoff round. Ibope will also release polls on the ra...

Macroeconomic and financial stress in five areas
INDIA · Report · 15 Oct 2018

​In India today there are five areas of stress that are interacting with each other. They are: 1) the bond market; 2) non-bank financial companies; 3) mutual funds; 4) the banking crisis; and 5) currency depreciation. Investor flows into mutual funds, which fed demand for primary issuance of b...

Change in the global scenario: Less tolerance towards emerging countries
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Oct 2018

​With the American economy in full employment and stimulated by a strongly expansionary fiscal policy to boot, the Federal Reserve will continue raising the interest rate. The yield on 2-year Treasuries, which at the start of 2017 had risen to 1%, is now approaching 3%, attracting capital that pr...

An Initial Take on the USMCA
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2018

Just before a midnight deadline on September 30, Canada and the United States concluded their part of the talks following the earlier tentative deal for a new, revised Nafta that has at least tentatively been branded the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA. The consensus reached after ...

Politics: López Obrador’s airport conundrum
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2018 · 1 response

President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced this past week that he will be organizing a "public consultation" regarding the future Mexico City airport. The consultation plan calls for setting up between 1,000 and 1,500 voting booths in 538 municipalities between October 25 and 28, less ...

Next round of oil tax increase suspended
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Oct 2018

The Department of Finance (DoF) announced over the weekend that the executive will suspend the second round of oil tax adjustments under the TRAIN law that were supposed to come into effect in January. The adjustments involve a P2/liter increase in excise taxes imposed on fuel prices, importantly...

A window of opportunity opens up
TURKEY · Report · 14 Oct 2018 · 1 response

The decision to send Pastor Brunson home is testimony to President Erdogan’s flexibility, coming only 12 days after he personally accused the cleric of being a terrorist. There is now hope for sincere dialogue in areas of dispute with the US. However, the White House needs to reciprocate by endin...

Ukrainian church to receive Independence: Russia might escalate
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Oct 2018

I’m not a big expert in church affairs, but on October 11 there was a historical event in clerical world which will have far-reaching consequences for secular life in Ukraine. A bit of history to start. More than 300 years ago (1648-1657) there was a big war between Ukraine and Poland. National l...

Healthy numbers, but IMF deal is elusive
UKRAINE · Forecast · 12 Oct 2018

Things in Ukraine have grown quite confusing. At this writing, macro statistics remain mostly good. GDP is growing strongly, at +3.8% y/y in Q2, on the back of investment and consumption. The CAD remains modest, at close to 2% of GDP, though it has started widening in H2. General budget revenues ...

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