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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A downward GDP growth surprise is likely in Q218
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Aug 2018

Wage growth appears to have moderated in recent months, which is supportive of modest inflation. Israeli institutions continue to purchase FX but at a modest pace, less than the CA surplus and FDI. The fiscal deficit is likely to surpass the fiscal target of 2.9% of GDP this year. Zoom in: ...

GDP growth is expected to decelerate in Q2
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Aug 2018

Q2 GDP growth is scheduled to be reported in first estimate early tomorrow. Analysts in Portfolio.hu's poll expect 4.2% yoy growth on sda basis, down from 4.7% yoy in Q1 and the 4.9% yoy cyclical peak in Q4 2017. We believe this is largely correct, but we would not be surprised at a somewhat lowe...

The week of fear and loathing
TURKEY · Report · 12 Aug 2018

The authors of this note agree that Turkey is on the verge of a historic moment, where the outcome entirely depends on President Erdogan’s “reaction function”. Neither of us are trained in clinical psychiatry or mind-reading, which means that our interpretations of what the Great Leader might be ...

​Clarification: BRSA denies meeting with banks
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Aug 2018 · 1 response

I’ve reported this morning that BRSA has called an emergency meeting with banks. I’ve based this market brief on reports from Bloomberg News and IPA, both of which were linked at the end of the commentary. Later BRSA denied such a meeting was called. Nevertheless, my contacts with several bankers...

​BRSA calls emergency meeting with banks
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2018

I don’t know if any of our audience checks her mail box on Saturday, but this can’t wait until Monday. Bloomberg as well as IPA International Press Agency claim that Turkey’s banking authority BRSA has invited banks, leasing and factoring companies to an emergency meeting on Saturday to assess th...

Fifteen-month labor
ECUADOR · Report · 10 Aug 2018

Finally, after 15 months, Ecuador has an economic bill that, albeit with limitations and inconsistencies, approaches a different economic model from that established by President Correa. Emerging from the Correato has proven more difficult than expected for the new government, so it seeks through...

In a lukewarm debate, Alckmin focuses on proposals
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2018

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) was the candidate who stood out in the first presidential debate, aired by TV Bandeirantes. The PSDB candidate avoided personal attacks and focused on his proposals. However, at times he failed to connect with the audience because of his use of complicated terminology such ...

CHILE: Cabinet Shuffle
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Aug 2018

Although he only shuffled three cabinet posts on Thursday, Chilean President Sebastián Piñera sent a broader message; he is admitting that the honeymoon is over.The two ministers to go were Education Minister Gerardo Varela and Culture Minister Alejandra Perez. Environment Minister Marcela Cubill...

Political parties law: Medina gets half of a victory
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Aug 2018

Tuesday night, the Chamber of Representatives voted positively for a law of parties that allows parties to choose the procedure to elect nominees for President and Vicepresident, members of Congress and local authorities. The bill was supported by danilistas and allied parties, and PRM representa...

GDP growth slides; policy rates raised
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2018 · 1 response

After adjusting down its 1Q18 economic growth estimate from 6.8% to 6.6%, government announced today that 2Q18 GDP growth slipped to 6%, far below the median 6.8% analysts’ forecast. While the headline figure is disappointing, what is striking about the 2Q18 performance is the strength of domesti...

Alckmin and Doria’s challenges in São Paulo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2018

The CNT/MDA poll conducted in São Paulo released today, August 8, shows that the PSDB is facing challenges in both the presidential and gubernatorial elections. Despite his gains in the state, Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), in a scenario in which Lula is not a candidate, is still technically tied wi...

Hyperinflation doesn’t give in to isolated measures
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Aug 2018

​As we predicted, the monthly inflation rate in July 2018 slowed to 117 percent from 127 percent in June. (Our July forecast was 116 percent.) Accumulated inflation in this year to 31 July is 11,186 percent and the July year-on-year rate is 93,927 percent. The July slowdown reflected relative st...

IMF deal grows closer, but gas rates are a sticking point
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Aug 2018

The depreciation of the hryvnia and continued backing and forthing over the next rise in consumer gas rates have been the two main topics this mid-summer. Economic data remains predominantly positive, with payroll tax collections the only exception: these have noticeably underperformed, and the P...

July inflation data marks significant negative change
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2018

CPI-inflation was reported at 0.3% mom, 3.4% yoy for July, the yoy rate up from 3.1% in June. Analysts in Portfolio.hu's poll expected 3.3%, and the MNB predicted 3.3% for average CPI-inflation in Q3 in its June inflation report.Note: Yoy changes in percent; Sources: KSH, own estimatesThe big dea...

Armageddon or Salvation
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Aug 2018 · 1 response

The basic scenario we have outlined in our recent Quarterly, i.e. Silver Linings Playbook, is playing out much faster with the crunch-time having arrived a lot sooner than we had imagined. Punished mercilessly by markets, Ankara has 24 hours to make a life-or-death decision. President Erdogan is ...

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