Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - TURKEY: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Renan remains; vote on the Federal Spending Amendment still on
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Dec 2016

​By a score of six votes to three, the Federal Supreme Court decided to keep Renan Calheiros as president of the Senate. However, because he is a defendant in a criminal case, he is removed from the presidential line of succession.

Double Trouble: A Trump Surprise, and IMF Lending on Hold
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Dec 2016

The Ukrainian authorities, like the rest of the world, were caught by surprise by the election of Donald Trump. The Poroshenko administration had never approached the Trump camp before the election, believing that Hillary Clinton would be the victor. Now Poroshenko needs to not only build relati...

Social Security Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Dec 2016

Government sends social security reform proposal to Congress This Tuesday (6), the government sent Congress the constitutional amendment proposal that reforms the social security system (PEC 287/16). It will first be analyzed by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Lower House. ...

The South African Economy Barely Manages to Grow During the Third Quarter
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Dec 2016

​Statistics South Africa today reported that growth in real (inflation adjusted) Gross Domestic Product decelerated notably at a quarterly, seasonally adjusted annualized rate to 0.2% in the third quarter of 2016. This followed a relatively impressive upwardly adjusted growth rate of 3.5% (from 3...

Political Turbulence and Worse Growth Perspectives
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 06 Dec 2016

The Temer administration has won some important victories, in particular the wide approval margins in the two floor votes in the Chamber of Deputies and first one in the Senate on the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) to cap spending growth in real terms. But alongside this unquestionable s...

Signs of Growth Dissipate, as the Macro Picture Darkens
ARGENTINA · Report · 06 Dec 2016

Herein we analyze the mounting economic pressures the government faces toward yearend, and in the runup to the October 2017 midterm elections. In our October 3rd report, we pointed out that while Q2 activity and external data were negative, higher frequency indicators for August suggested the...

Renan Calheiros Removed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2016 · 1 response

The decision to remove Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL) from the Presidency of the Senate, via injunction, made by STF (Federal Supreme Court) minister Marco Aurélio Melo, will have several consequences: 1) Uncertainty regarding the progress of the fiscal austerity effort in the Senate, espe...

Week of December 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2016

Sunday’s protests will have repercussions in the political world. The government will finally send Congress the proposal for Social Security reform. The Senate has an extensive voting agenda, including the ban on re-election, abuse of authority and state debt. A Senate committee analyzes limits o...

Monetary Policy in the Midst of a Profound Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Dec 2016

The Central Bank’s only mandate is to meet the inflation target. But its decisions are not made in a vacuum. Rather, it takes the decisions prying to minimize a loss function involving two costs: the distance of (projected) inflation from the target; and the distance of GDP in relation to potenti...

Past Performance is No Guarantee of...
TURKEY · Report · 05 Dec 2016

Twelve-month CPI inflation eased in November to 7% from 7.2% in October, contrary to expectations of a slight increase, as monthly rate came in at 0.5% vs. expectations of a 0.8% increase. Producer prices jumped visibly to 6.4%, y/y, from 2.8% a month earlier, likely driven by higher energy price...

Fasten Your Seatbelts!
TURKEY · Report · 04 Dec 2016

Instead of a Weekly Update, we are sending a Monthly in a Q&A format today, which we thought would be a better way of addressing some of the questions that might vex your minds​. AKP and MHP finally agreed on the Executive Presidency. There will be a referendum on the subject by May or June, i...

Banco de Mexico's governor: a badly timed resignation
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2016

Agustin Carstens resigned as governor of Banco de Mexico, effective next July, to become the head of BIS. The timing is unfortunate, since this change comes during a circumstance in which monetary policy has become the main (and in our opinion, the only), policy instrument at hand to preserve ...

MNB is running out of reasons to loosen further
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Dec 2016

Most recent events seem to push circumstances towards a situation in which the MNB may have much less reason to loosen further than previously, if any at all. Of those, the forint's weakening to the current EURHUF 314 from the previous 305-310 range has long been part of our forecast, because of ...

Political environment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2016 · 1 response

​By majority vote, the Federal Supreme Court decided to accept the accusation against the president of the Senate, Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL). This represents a tough defeat for the senator. Despite the fact that the end-of-year parliamentary recess is only three weeks away, there may be pressure ...

Trump Possible Bad News for Canal, and Exports
PANAMA · Report · 30 Nov 2016

The question every analyst asks these days is how the Trump administration might affect Panama. Though the link between the U.S. and Panamanian economies is one of the weakest in the region, a likely surge of protectionism will hit services exports, and Canal traffic. Other potential impac...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.