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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

EL SALVADOR: Nayib Bukele wins presidential election in the first round
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 06 Feb 2019

As we have been updating in previous reports, presidential election in El Salvador took place last Sunday February 3rd, 2019. By Monday the Electoral Court announced Nayib Bukele as the winner by an ample majority of 53% of valid votes. His two main contenders came from the two political parties ...

More government investment promised
CHINA · Forecast · 06 Feb 2019

Infrastructure investment growth saw its first rise in October 2018, up 3.7% y/y, and up 0.4 pps from September. This has been underscored in recent intensive announcements for new openings and approvals of mega-projects. The Chinese government’s relatively low public debt, at 47.6% of GDP, has m...

Russians feel pessimistic about the economy but austerity is ending
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Feb 2019

The Russian Government is easing off austerity. Government spending is due to rise 8% this year. Most of the rise will go to National Projects. Spending was cut four years in a row. Incomes have fallen for five years in a row in real terms. Polls show most people are despondent about the economy....

Inflation falls to 4.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Feb 2019

As expected, headline inflation eased further to 4.4 percent in January from 5.1 percent in December, with core inflation slowing down to 4.4 percent from 4.7 percent over the same period. The headline rate reflects a month on month inflation of 0.2% traced to increased fish prices. In contrast, ...

Politics: AMLO camp tested by teachers
MEXICO · Report · 04 Feb 2019

The protests by teachers in Michoacan that for the past two weeks have shut down many municipal government offices, highways and rail lines pose a challenge to the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and highlight the problems he will increasingly face in trying to maintain the hi...

Economics: The economy continues to sputter along
MEXICO · Report · 04 Feb 2019

Economic indicators published in January tended to point to an extension of the trend toward a moderate slowing of the Mexican economy. Trade performance actually improved significantly in December, much to the surprise of analysts as the country posted its first trade surplus of any month since ...

Who is running amok? Hungary is blocking EU foreign policy again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Feb 2019

It seems that PM Orbán's government keeps hammering nails into the coffin of good relations between Hungary and the EU. This time, the theme is a forthcoming summit between the EU and the League of Arab States, scheduled for February 24-25. The EU's foreign ministers were set to discuss their joi...

The government’s victories in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Feb 2019

Congress resumes activity this week. Chief of Staff Onyx Lorenzoni takes a message to Congress from the Executive, defining priorities. On Wednesday, the Central Bank sets the benchmark interest rate. On Thursday, President Bolsonaro is expected to be released from Albert Einstein hospital, where...

Asset Prices and Cyclical Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Feb 2019

The behavior of asset prices reveals great optimism about the new government’s economic program. However, the latest numbers on the labor market, industrial output and fixed capital investments indicate that the recovery is still very sluggish. The Brazilian economy this year will not be able to ...

A year of definition
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 04 Feb 2019

For obvious reasons, 2019 is a year of political definition towards the general elections of May 2020. The political parties must choose their candidates for President and Vice-President, the Senate (32 positions), the Chamber of Representatives (190 positions), and also for more than 350 local g...

Schlumberger has lost priority to buy EDC shares
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2019

Schlumberger had priority on buying shares in Eurasia Drilling Company (EDC). This expired on 1 February and will not be renewed. Moscow has decided on this. Apparently it is not linked to US sanctions. It is thought that Russian competitors lobbied the government not to extend Schlumberger's pri...

EFF launches its 2019 election manifesto – largely a populist agenda
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Feb 2019

With the 2019 general elections fast approaching, political parties are beginning to intensify their campaigns. The ruling party, the National African Congress (ANC), has centered its promises around reviving South Africa’s economy, while the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA) ha...

Food up, core down, service sticky
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Feb 2019

January consumer price inflation, at 1.06%, m/m, came in broadly in line with expectations, taking the 12-month rate marginally higher to 20.4%, from 20.3% a month earlier. Twelve-month domestic-PPI inflation continued to decline, though at a much slower pace than in recent months, to 32.9% from ...

Rate hike unlikely before 2020
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Feb 2019

Recent data point to some increasing slack in the labor market. In addition, private consumption demand appears to be slowing. Lastly, the shekel continues to appreciate against both the dollar and the Euro. These are all factors supporting low inflation and therefore, rate stability as well, thr...

Russia trying to switch to domestic software - unsuccessfully
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2019

The Russian Audit Chamber published statistics showing that in 2017-18 government agencies purchased USD 130 million of domestically produced software and USD 263 million of foreign created software. This is disappointing because the government would like to see its agencies buying more Russian m...

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