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How Intense will the Monetary Easing Cycle be?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Nov 2016

To gauge the intensity of the interest rate cut, the Central Bank will observe three sets of information, regarding: a) inflation and economic activity; b) approval of fiscal adjustment measures; and c) the effects of “external shocks” that alter the trend of the exchange rate. In the past 45 day...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 27 Nov 2016

After a fighter jet believed to be operated by Assad’s loyalists bombed Turkish forces in Syria, the prospect of a PYD/YPG-Turkey-Assad conflict has risen substantially. Syria is now our top political risk. The European Parliament resolved to freeze Turkish accession temporarily. EU leaders a...

The Reserve Bank Ends the Year with the Repo Rate Unchanged at 7%
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Nov 2016

As we had predicted after the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) previous meeting, the latter has once again decided to keep the benchmark interest rate, i.e. the repo rate, at 7%; effectively leaving the prime lending rate at 10.5%. Today’s decision came despite th...

CBRT Acts, But Will It Suffice?
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Nov 2016

The CBRT/MPC hiked the weekly-repo and O/N lending rates by 50 and 25 bps, respectively, at today’s meeting, to 8% and 8.5%, leaving the O/N borrowing rate unchanged at 7.25% (Graph 1). The move is certainly better than nothing and somewhat better than the consensus, and also shows that the Bank ...

Trump Introduces Uncertainties
CHINA · Report · 24 Nov 2016

Economic growth was relatively stable in October. Fixed asset investment was up 9% y/y, a 2 pp rise from Q3. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, and its growth rates have been very stable, with volatility of only around 0.3 pps. But electricity production rose 8% y/y, a record high for many years,...

Politics: How Best to Answer Donald Trump's threats
MEXICO · Report · 24 Nov 2016

The two axes –economic integration and shared security— upon which in recent decades a complex and profound relationship of collaboration and trust between Mexico and the United States was built is about to be upended and potentially demolished by the aggressive measures president elect Donald T...

Economics: Inadequate Response Plan - Signals
MEXICO · Report · 24 Nov 2016

The election of Republican Nominee Donald Trump as President of the United States has highlighted the existence of structural vulnerabilities in the Mexican economy that have been exacerbated in recent months. In this context, it is important to analyze the various variables that have deteriorat...

Agreement reached on wages, social security tax
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Nov 2016

The government reached an agreement with representative organizations of employers and with trade unions on the next two years' measures regarding the social contribution tax (SCT) and minimum wages. According to this, the SCT - which employers pay on top of gross wages - will be cut to 22% from ...

Dialogue
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Nov 2016

The second round of internationally-mediated talks ended on November 12 produced a roadmap that could help restore constitutional order but the path towards regime change is longer than the opposition wants. The opposition’s leadership paid a high cost by accepting the mediator’s proposal to post...

Unemployment Rises in the Third Quarter of 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Nov 2016

​Statistics South Africa’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), conducted during July to September 2016 (Q3:2016), shows that the unemployment rate increased to 27.1%, up from 26.6% for Q2:2016 and 26.7 for Q1:2016. See Graph 1. The slight quarter-on-quarter increase in the unemployment rate was...

The times they are a-changin’
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 22 Nov 2016

Change is here. In the past three months, the Philippines saw its highly popular President redefined Philippine foreign policy away from longstanding ally U.S., blessed the burial of ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos at the Heroes’ Cemetery, re-engaged communist insurgents and Muslim militants in ...

MNB credit rates cut by 10-15bps this time
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Nov 2016

Today's was just another monthly Monetary Council rate-setting meeting which resulted in some sort of a loosening step. This time around, the Council cut the O/N credit rate by 15 bps and the 1-week credit rate by 10 bps, both to 0.9%. By this step, the upper part of the already heavily asymmetri...

SA President in a Political Stalemate
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 22 Nov 2016

SA political economy scene has been hot, noisy, and increasingly bewildered over the past few weeks. There has not been much developments of any substance. I have been monitoring the situation carefully. There has been a great deal of political grand standing, tactical moves, threatening noise an...

Pdvsa's Glitch
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Nov 2016

Pdvsa missed paying in time interest on the PDVSA 9% 2021s, PDVSA 6% 2024s and PDVSA 9.75% 2035s as reported by Citibank, the paying agent, and Clearstream. We understand payments were still pending as of eob yesterday, Monday 21, 2016. PDVSA has only paid $135 million on the PDVSA’s 6.0% 2026s. ...

Efforts and Frustrations
PERU · Report · 21 Nov 2016

Toward the end of his first hundred days in office, President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s popularity has declined significantly. This is partly due to natural impatience over the government’s seeming slowness in addressing top public concerns, such as the economy and security. But two other reasons a...

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