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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Trump Effect
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Nov 2016

Although it is too soon for a precise evaluation, Donald Trump’s election in the United States has altered the scenario for emerging markets. The bet on greater fiscal stimulus and an increase in infrastructure investments has changed the forecasts regarding elevation of the interest rate and att...

Inflation accelerates again
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Nov 2016

As we predicted, inflation is accelerating owing to three factors: The surge in the price of the dollar in the parallel market since October, with a 40 percent increase MOM; strong monetary expansion since August with year-on-year rates rising to 127 percent in the first week of November, a recor...

Week of November 13
TURKEY · Report · 13 Nov 2016

New political risks are cropping up each day. Thanks to an emerging deal between AKP and MHP, a presidential referendum is now very likely to take place in the spring. It is not clear whether an Erdogan victory or defeat is the “good case” scenario for Turkey. It is not yet possible to draw fi...

“Demonetisation” : The impact of removing 500 and 1000 rupee notes
INDIA · Report · 11 Nov 2016

The demonetisation of the Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes in a sudden and dramatic move by the government is a significant negative monetary shock to India’s economy, particularly the informal sector. The cash economy in India is about 30 to 40 percent of the economy and well integrated with the formal ...

​Who is afraid of Donald Trump?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Nov 2016

Among ASEAN economies, the Philippines has been tagged as the most at risk from a Trump presidency. Those raising concerns zero in on Mr. Trump’s protectionist bent and espoused policy to discourage outsourcing, as well as his call for stricter enforcement of immigration laws. These, they argue, ...

Political: PAN Confronted by New Dilemmas
MEXICO · Report · 10 Nov 2016

The National Action Party emerged from last summer’s elections with powerful momentum nationally while the incumbent Institutional Revolutionary Party has been thrown on the defensive by corruption scandals and President Enrique Peña Nieto’s increasingly depressed approval ratings. So much so tha...

Economic: Slight Margin for Pemex Business Plan
MEXICO · Report · 10 Nov 2016

Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) released its preliminary results for the third quarter of 2016, which show that its losses were not quite as pronounced as they had been in previous quarters, but also confirm considerable reductions in production and capital expenditures. Of particular concern is t...

​Trump and Turkey—Initial thoughts
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Nov 2016

Even though Trump has barely made a foreign policy speech, I know markets wait for no man and my audience demands to know how Trump would sit with Turkey. I’m committing my initial thoughts to writing, warning the readers that these are sketchy and prone to large margins of error. I’ll update in ...

Denotification of Rs.500 and Rs.1000 notes
INDIA · In Brief · 09 Nov 2016

The BJP government announced a big surprise move last night. They declared that the existing Rs.500 and Rs.1000 currency notes were no longer legal tender. Persons who have these currency notes have to go to a bank, and over the next few weeks, exchange them for either bank balances or a new seri...

Looking Outside
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Nov 2016

Russia’s largest naval group, with an aircraft carrier, nuclear missile cruiser and other cruise missile ships, which traveled along the European shores to the Eastern Mediterranean, can hardly make a difference in the Syrian conflict from a military standpoint. Although powerful and somewhat cap...

The MNB is walking on a tightrope
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2016

CPI-inflation in October came out as 0.6% mom, 1% yoy this morning, just slightly above the 0.9% yoy market consensus, which we shared, and up from 0.6% yoy in September. Much of the upturn came from higher fuel prices, with non-fuel inflation measured at 0.3% mom, 0.9% yoy. The latter was actual...

Week of November 7
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2016 · 2 responses

Several important topics are on this week’s agenda. Odebrecht is expected to sign a plea bargain deal. The CCJ in the Senate may vote on the Federal Spending Amendment. In the Judiciary, the STF makes a decision on outsourcing, and the TSE hears defense witnesses in the case that calls for the an...

Looking into the $909 million decline in foreign reserves on 10/26
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Nov 2016

The $909 million decline in BCV’s foreign reserves on Wednesday, October 26 deserves a comment. We have reason to believe the money went to help Pdvsa cover its 31 October/2 November debt service payments and not to Gold Reserve, as originally thought. Gold Reserve informed in a 4 November press ...

The Frustrated Bet on Fast Return to Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Nov 2016

The most recent data on economic activity indicate GDP contracted again in the third quarter. Due to the shrinkage of world trade and weak commodity prices, there is no hope for exports to act as a force to drive recovery. Nor can this be expected from household consumption, which continues being...

Wealth Shock
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Nov 2016

New electronic statements, or “e-declarations,” revealing the impressive wealth amassed by Ukraine’s politicians and civil servants dominated the headlines in October. Some observers were shocked to see the millions of dollars of previously opaque wealth reported publicly for the first time. The ...

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