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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 18 Dec 2016

The second major attack in as many weeks suggests that terror might become a leading political risk for Turkey in 2017. We discuss the implications, which go beyond economics to ethnic polarization and a deeper military involvement in Syria. The text of the presidential reform bill contains po...

Negative ratings on the rise for the Temer administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2016

The CNI/Ibope poll released on Friday shows that negative evaluations of the Temer administration have increased. “Bad/Very Bad” evaluations increased 7 points compared to the previous poll while positive ratings (“Great/Good”) and regular evaluations remained practically the same (see table below).

Temer administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2016

​Government announces economic stimulus measures In an attempt to tackle the economic recession and to respond to the political pressure of the last few weeks, the government announced a set of 10 measures to increase productivity in the private sector, reduce bureaucracy, and stimulate economic...

The December 13 decline in foreign reserves
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2016

International reserves fell by $800 million on December 13. We believe this reflects a payment to Gold Reserve, already postponed twice. The most recent agreement between the company and the government set payments totaling $820 million to be made between December 15 and January 31, namely: $300 ...

Pension Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2016

The Constitution and Justice Committee of the Lower House approved the admissibility of the Pension Reform proposal. There were 31 votes in favor of the admissibility and 20 against. The score was a bit more balanced than the Federal Spending Amendment, which passed by 33-18. The matter wil...

Getting Used to the Unpredictable
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2016

For the first time in many decades a federal minister was arrested on a bribe accusation in Russia. Although the anti-corruption campaign has been going on for quite a while, its overall imitative nature created a lasting impression that top level government officials were immune as long as they ...

Economics: Fourth O&G Tender A Big Success
MEXICO · Report · 14 Dec 2016

Last week Mexico announced the results of its fourth phase of Round One hydrocarbon field tenders, the country’s first deep water bid round. The blocks that were awarded were more attractive than the ones offered in the first three phases due to their production and profitability potential. Preci...

Politics: Peña Nieto’s Fourth-Year Scorecard
MEXICO · Report · 14 Dec 2016

According to the latest GEA-ISA poll of voters taken between November 25 and 28, the public has a clearly adverse view of the administration of President Peña as it concludes its fourth year in office. On the five major points around which his National Development Plan was structured (greater pub...

Political environment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2016

The government concluded, within the projected timeframe, the vote on the Federal Spending Amendment. The score in the first round vote (61-14) was lower than the second round (53 x 16). The eight-vote difference is due mainly to absences. Only one senator changed his vote – Dario Berger (PMDB...

A recognition of fiscal misalignment
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Dec 2016

On December 9, the Executive presented to the Senate a bill to modify the budget for 2016. The bill includes a request for authorization of issuance of securities for DOP 11.8 bn or USD 253 million. Of these, USD 100 million are intended to finance operations for the construction of Punta Catalin...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Dec 2016

Although we expected an increase in the political tension around the approval of the spending cap PEC in the Senate, we did not imagine that the political conflict would spill over into a confrontation between the legislative and judicial branches, with reputational costs that are hard to assess....

Week of December 12
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2016

The Odebrecht plea bargain deal will continue to have major repercussions in Brasília. To create a positive agenda, the government is expected to launch a package of eight measures aimed at job creation and economic recovery. Despite the fact that the congressional recess begins on December 23, t...

Poorer in Q3, Richer on the Whole
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2016

Today’s GDP print showed that the economy contracted by a sharper than expected 1.8% in Q3, y/y, markedly worse than our expectation of “weak growth in moderately positive territory”. The sharp drop partly owes to a higher base, as we now learnt that – based on today’s new GDP series – the Turkis...

First facts about the impact of de-monetization upon business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 12 Dec 2016

We carefully examine the first five well-trusted data releases about the real economy that report on November 2016. This early data suggests that the shock in the event month (November 2016) was worse than what we observed in September 2008, the event month of the Lehman bankruptcy.

Fiscal Adjustment: Next Steps
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Dec 2016

With the likely final approval by the Senate (second floor vote) of the PEC that freezes spending in real terms, the government will have finished the first step of a profound fiscal adjustment. The second step is the social security reform, with the establishment of a minimum retirement age and ...

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