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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Macroeconomic Outlook
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 26 Oct 2018

Challenges for the new administration include the fate of the tax reform, the aftermath of the peace plan, and a strategy for Venezuelan refugees into the country. Specifics topics in this Colombia presentation are: • Possible content of financing law, according to the director of DIAN and our ...

Eurobonds Ahead of the IMF
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2018

We have raised $2 billion through Eurobonds. Ahead of the IMF wire. The funds appeared to be quite expensive and we hear many local observers already crying foul about this placement. Nevertheless, it’s a very good deal for Ukraine improving our chances to survive smoothly the doubled elections y...

South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 2018: Fiscal déjà vu
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Oct 2018

Just two weeks after assuming the position of South Africa’s Finance Minister, Tito Mboweni had the unenviable task of tabling his maiden Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on October 24, 2018. The MTBPS is tabled annually in parliament in October and sets out the economic context and as...

Policy rate unchanged, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Oct 2018

At today’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the policy (one-week repo) rate was left unchanged at 24% (simple), as expected (see chart). There were a few outliers in the polls, expecting (or hoping?) that the Bank would hike rates with a view to rebuilding its credibility and/or because real po...

A vote on Finance Minister Carrasquilla in Congress?
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 24 Oct 2018 · 1 response

An eventual no-confidence vote (moción de censura) against Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla would be an unwelcome event. Some congressmen would like to exploit this as an opportunity to force the Duque administration to negotiate. We think that the prospect of the government’s losing its mos...

Economic projections for 2019 are optimistic…but some issues must be closely followed
PANAMA · Report · 24 Oct 2018

International analysts are bullish about the growth of the Panamanian economy next year: the IMF projects 6.8%, the World Bank 5.4%, ECLAC 5.2%, and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) assumed an implicit real growth rate of 5.8% in the budget (not yet approved). We projected a 5% growth ra...

The Maduro Plan, two months later
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Oct 2018

Two months after Maduro’s wayward speech introducing his so-called “Recovery, Growth, and Prosperity Program”, we have a clearer idea of the government’s playbook and objectives. We are equally clear on the fact that said plan is bad, and its implementation will be worse. Maduro’s base seems t...

Reduced lead does not alter Bolsonaro’s favoritism
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2018

The new Ibope poll on the runoff round of the presidential election shows that, considering valid votes, Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) decreased from 18 to 14 percentage points. The reduced lead over Haddad is a consequence of recent attacks on the PSL candidate. Asid...

​AKP-MHP suspend alliance, as Erdogan rips apart Saudi account of Khashoggi murder
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2018

Let’s put first things first.Tuesday witnessed a monumental development in Turkish politics, as MHP leader Mr. Bahceli broke off the alliance in upcoming March local elections with AKP. While the status of the broader alliance is up in the air, as far as I am concerned, it has ended in practice, ...

Economics: New push to expand Banxico mandate
MEXICO · Report · 22 Oct 2018

The Workers Party (PT) recently proposed in Congress constitutional reforms aimed at expanding Banco de México’s constitutional mandate to include the promotion of economic growth and employment in addition to its current focus on defending “buying power”. It also aims to assure that the monetary...

Bolsonaro almost there and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2018

This is the final week of the campaign before the runoff round in the presidential election and 14 gubernatorial races. Candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) is unlikely to participate in the debates scheduled for this week. Gubernatorial debates are also scheduled. Several electoral polls are scheduled...

Russia ruling party setback
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2018

Rosy economic news for Russia but the ruling party suffers setbacks. Russia is keen to end the Syrian conflict soon. Uzbekistan launches a charm offensive in India and France.

Politics: AMLO’s emerging legislative agenda
MEXICO · Report · 22 Oct 2018 · 1 response

In the almost 50 days of the new legislative session, activity has been intense, including the explanation and defense of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s final State of the Nation report by his cabinet ministers and the installation of the legislative commissions. But only one bill has been approv...

Will South Africa’s upcoming mini budget please Moody’s?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Oct 2018

Moody’s rating agency, the only one of the main three that still has South Africa’s credit under investment grading (Baa3 with a stable outlook), indicated a few weeks ago that it is not likely to downgrade the country during its next review. Despite this somewhat assuring statement, Moody’s stil...

Economic activity still recovering slowly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Oct 2018

​Despite the positive surprise of the IBC-Br, indicating growth in the third quarter of 1.5%, the recovery trend is still sluggish. The result of the IBC-Br was influenced mainly by the service sector, where real revenue expanded by 1.2% in August, and by real retail sales, whose increase may hav...

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