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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Monetary Policy in the Midst of a Profound Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Dec 2016

The Central Bank’s only mandate is to meet the inflation target. But its decisions are not made in a vacuum. Rather, it takes the decisions prying to minimize a loss function involving two costs: the distance of (projected) inflation from the target; and the distance of GDP in relation to potenti...

Past Performance is No Guarantee of...
TURKEY · Report · 05 Dec 2016

Twelve-month CPI inflation eased in November to 7% from 7.2% in October, contrary to expectations of a slight increase, as monthly rate came in at 0.5% vs. expectations of a 0.8% increase. Producer prices jumped visibly to 6.4%, y/y, from 2.8% a month earlier, likely driven by higher energy price...

Fasten Your Seatbelts!
TURKEY · Report · 04 Dec 2016

Instead of a Weekly Update, we are sending a Monthly in a Q&A format today, which we thought would be a better way of addressing some of the questions that might vex your minds​. AKP and MHP finally agreed on the Executive Presidency. There will be a referendum on the subject by May or June, i...

Banco de Mexico's governor: a badly timed resignation
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2016

Agustin Carstens resigned as governor of Banco de Mexico, effective next July, to become the head of BIS. The timing is unfortunate, since this change comes during a circumstance in which monetary policy has become the main (and in our opinion, the only), policy instrument at hand to preserve ...

MNB is running out of reasons to loosen further
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Dec 2016

Most recent events seem to push circumstances towards a situation in which the MNB may have much less reason to loosen further than previously, if any at all. Of those, the forint's weakening to the current EURHUF 314 from the previous 305-310 range has long been part of our forecast, because of ...

Political environment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2016 · 1 response

​By majority vote, the Federal Supreme Court decided to accept the accusation against the president of the Senate, Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL). This represents a tough defeat for the senator. Despite the fact that the end-of-year parliamentary recess is only three weeks away, there may be pressure ...

Trump Possible Bad News for Canal, and Exports
PANAMA · Report · 30 Nov 2016

The question every analyst asks these days is how the Trump administration might affect Panama. Though the link between the U.S. and Panamanian economies is one of the weakest in the region, a likely surge of protectionism will hit services exports, and Canal traffic. Other potential impac...

Signs of Softening and Uncertainty, While Anti-corruption Efforts Remain Muddled
MEXICO · Report · 30 Nov 2016

Economic indicators last month showed the Mexican economy largely sustained its slackened pace of recent quarters (an average 2.0% rate of growth through the first nine months of the year) as weak supply indicators contrasted with continuing strength in demand, although the latter also manifests ...

President Zuma Hangs to Power- But Only Just!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Nov 2016

The ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC) decision, after a 3-day meeting held over the past three days, announced earlier today is a short term victory for Zuma! In an unexpected turn of event on Saturday three of his Cabinet Ministers tabled a “vote of no confidence” in him requesting him to...

Trump Plans Could Hit Migration and FDI
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2016

Uncertainty over the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s economic decisions is high. If Trump makes good on his campaign promises, Central America will be negatively affected on several fronts. The main areas relate to migration, remittances, trade and foreign direct investment. ...

Trump-Inspired Damage is Unlikely
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 29 Nov 2016

Despite uncertainties surrounding the policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, we don’t expect the effects on the Dominican economy to be dramatic, over either the short or the medium term. Expansionary fiscal policies aimed at strengthening U.S. infrastructure could boost demand and attrac...

The Country of Not Enough
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Nov 2016 · 1 response

The end of 2016 will be characterized by not enough growth, a tax reform likely to deliver less than what is needed, monetary policy that has yet to bring inflation down, and a peace deal that may not be enough to bring peace. That is why Colombia, yet making efforts in all these fronts, seems to...

External and Internal Driven Volatility
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Nov 2016

In concert with other emerging-market countries, the Indonesian economy underwent a bit of volatility after the election of Donald Trump as the new President of the United States. However, in the Indonesian context, volatility was also influenced by internal politics after the November 4, 2016 de...

Week of November 28
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Nov 2016 · 1 response

A busy week in Brasília: The government will face an important test in the Senate with the vote on the Federal Spending Amendment, scheduled for Tuesday, November 29. The end of re-elections is also on the voting agenda. In the Lower House, congressmen are seeking an agreement regarding the set ...

How Intense will the Monetary Easing Cycle be?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Nov 2016

To gauge the intensity of the interest rate cut, the Central Bank will observe three sets of information, regarding: a) inflation and economic activity; b) approval of fiscal adjustment measures; and c) the effects of “external shocks” that alter the trend of the exchange rate. In the past 45 day...

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