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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Growth Picks Up in Q1 Amid Political Uncertainty
PANAMA · Report · 03 Jul 2017

GDP grew 6.2% y/y in Q1 2017 compared to 4.6% in Q1 2016. The three drivers were: 1) double digit growth in Colon Free Zone (CFZ) re-exports; 2) an increase in Panama Canal transits due to last year’s expansion, as well as a surge in ports transshipments; 3) construction, driven by private and pu...

Effects of the Favorable External Impulse
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jul 2017

In the midst of a political crisis that increases risks and hampers growth recovery, Brazil is benefiting from two favorable movements of the international economy. The resumption of growth in Europe, Japan and the United States in an environment of abundant international liquidity has reduced...

A jump in BCV’s non-reserve assets
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jul 2017 · 1 response

BCV's balance sheet as of May 31, 2017, published on June 29, reports a month-on-month increase of Bs 25,091 billion (236 percent) in the non-reserve assets account called “Diverse Assets in Foreign Currency” (Activos Diversos en Divisas). This account is not part of BCV’s foreign reserves. We...

Land reform requirement was dropped from the IMF memorandum, anonymous source reports
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Jul 2017

Breaking news arrived today. Anonymous source reported that President Poroshenko asked the IMF to drop agro-land circulation from agenda and the IMF (allegedly personally Christine Lagarde) satisfied the request. Allegedly the decision was already set. I’m quite skeptical to such news but I see i...

Inevitable constituent assembly won’t bring stability
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jul 2017 · 1 response

National Constituent Assembly (ANC) elections are scheduled for July 30. Maduro’s call to form this body is unconstitutional, but he has support from the high court (which is stacked with loyalists), the National Guard (which is violently repressing protests), and most of his government. The p...

Funny Numbers
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Jul 2017

​The new Medium Term Fiscal Framework contained few surprises. The central government’s fiscal deficit for 2017 is still estimated at 3.6% of GDP, in line with the revised fiscal rule target. That’s no mean feat, as a lot has changed this year. First, the economy will grow by less than the govern...

Encouraging Signs for Consumption Coming From the Credit Market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jul 2017

​It is very clear that on the aggregate demand side, recovery of household consumption will predominate over recovery of investments, which are still falling. An indication comes from the credit data. Unlike what has been happening with credit to businesses, which continues to contract along with...

Headline Drops Further on Food, Lira
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2017

Consumer prices dropped by 0.27% in June, m/m, which compared favorably to consensus expectation of some 0.1% increase (June 2016: 0.5%). The 12-month rate hence declined more than expected to 10.9% from 11.7% in May. Producer prices also eased to 14.9%, y/y, from 15.3% in May, but remains rather...

Justice march and Syria needs monitoring
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2017

I’ve returned from a 15 day business trip to USA, where I had met representatives from roughly 35 institutions. I’ll provide more details in the upcoming Weekly Report, but in a nutshell interest in the Turkey story is strong, while positioning is light, which I expect to increase only very modes...

The European Commission on possible new conditionality attached to EU transfers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2017

Politicians in the EU and especially in donor countries have been repeatedly talking about the need to attach tighter political conditionality to the distribution of financial grants by the European Union ("EU transfers') to member countries. This idea has come up in the context of performance on...

Tough Road for a Rebound
PERU · Forecast · 30 Jun 2017

The surprising severity of the El Niño phenomenon, and the worsening relations between Congress and the Executive branch, have moved us to revise our 2017 growth estimate. Still, these negative events are assumed to be improving with time, and the efforts for reconstruction after the climatic dis...

Rising Consumer Concerns about WMPs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Jun 2017

In May, we conducted a survey of buyers of Wealth Management Products (WMPS) in China and also examined related data on defaults from the courts and public sources. We believe the RMB 26 trillion WMP market is the most liquid and volatile within China’s financial system and would be prone to runs...

Peaceful Holiday
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Eid Mubarak is always the largest holiday in Indonesia. Celebrated after one full month of fasting, the holiday is usually filled with various celebrations, but at its center is the Homecoming Tradition, in which literally millions of people travel back to their hometowns. During this holiday ...

Economics: Slowing Trend Likely to Continue
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Data released last week on aggregate supply and demand through the first quarter of 2017 showed a 4.2% annual increase that was both better than expected and the most pronounced rise of the previous five quarters. In keeping with the trends of previous quarters, private consumption was the compon...

COSTA RICA: A Happy Ending? Not Exactly
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Costa Rica’s Central Bank succeeded in controlling FX market turmoil in May, bringing the exchange rate down from the high levels it reached by the third week of May. But pressures persist, since Central Bank FX market intervention has not been neutral over the medium and long-term, as the offici...

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