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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Revised Q3 GDP data reflects increasingly robust domestic demand
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Dec 2017

Revised GDP data for Q3 came out at 0.9% qoq, 4.1% yoy on sda basis this morning. The quarterly number remained unchanged from the first estimate, but the yoy data jumped from a preliminary 3.8%, partly due to upward revisions affecting previous quarters. Growth accelerated from 3.7% yoy in Q2, a...

Increased optimism around Pension Reform, but challenges remain
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2017

According to a poll conducted by Arko Advice of 218 congressional representatives, 57.8% do not believe that Pension Reform will be approved in the Temer administration. However, this index is better than the result of the previous poll, conducted in October (78.77%). The new poll was conducted o...

New Attack on Anti-Corruption Bodies, the U.S. Department of State Intervenes
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Dec 2017

We witness new major fight over anti-corruption bodies these days. National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) has been extremely effective over the last few months. Arrests reached high profile officials. Among the nosiest cases was the arrest of the son of current Interior Minister, Arsen...

An attempt to arrest Saakashvili amid blames in illegal party financing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Dec 2017

Today on Dec 5 the Security Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) made an attempt to arrest Mikheil Saakashvili, leader of opposition party Move of New Forces. Hundreds of supporters gathered near the place where Saakashvili resides and effectively recaptured Saakashvili from police and SBU. In parallel, the C...

The economy shows grit while Peña chooses Meade to be his successor
MEXICO · Report · 04 Dec 2017

Despite the overall uncertainty surrounding the fate of Nafta, indicators released in November showed that the Mexican economy remains solid, with roughly a fourth of all FDI inflows directed at the automotive sector, and the country increasingly diversifying its non petroleum exports. There was ...

Capitalization of state-owned television: A systemic problem?
CHILE · Report · 04 Dec 2017

During the last couple of months (and probably for what is left of 2017), legislative activity has been drastically reduced, thanks to the ongoing discussion of the budget bill and the election campaign. Nevertheless, at least one new piece of major legislation will be probably adopted – a bill r...

Week of December 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Dec 2017

The government intensifies efforts to approve Pension Reform by the week of December 12. On Wednesday night, December 6, President Temer will meet with leaders of allied parties to discuss the reform. The same day, the PSDB, which is divided on the issue, will discuss a possible party-line vote. ...

Economic Recovery alongside High Risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 04 Dec 2017

The most positive point of economic policy execution is the conduction of monetary policy fighting off inflation. The SELIC rate should close 2017 at 7% a year and remain at that level throughout 2018. With this, the ex-ante real interest rate for one year will remain near 3%, below the neutral r...

GDP in the Third Quarter and the Indications for 2018
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2017

The GDP data for the third quarter showed both continuity and more general recovery of the economy. Besides expansion of GDP for three straight quarters, the results for the first six months were revised upward, suggesting stronger growth for 2017 as a whole, of about 1%. Our projections are that...

Double-Digit Inflation, Our New Reality
TURKEY · Report · 04 Dec 2017

Consumer prices rose by a more than expected 1.5% in November (versus consensus and roughly our forecasts of around 1.1%), which raised the 12-month rate sharply higher to 13%, up from 11.9% in October. Producer prices rose by a hefty 2% in the month, with the 12-month PPI rate staying broadly un...

Preview: Headline CPI-inflation will likely bounce back to 2.6% yoy in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2017

We believe that the headline CPI-inflation rate, which fell from 2.5% yoy in September to 2.2% yoy in October, will most likely jump to 2.6% yoy again in November. (KSH is due to report this data on Friday, November 8.)A key preliminary fact in this regard is that the wholesale prices of fuel ros...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2017

Three days of testimony by Reza Zarrab aired large amounts of dirt about Turkish politics and the shady deals made by some Turkish banks. Needless to say, these are accusations that need to be proven. The horror show is just starting. Once Zarrab is thoroughly grilled, the prosecution will parade...

Negotiations will shed light on 2018 outlook
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2017 · 1 response

Nicolás Maduro wants to stay in power. Whether he will do so through a snap election in early 2018 with no pretense of fairness or legitimacy or by making concessions to boost his government’s legitimacy before semi-competitive elections later in the year is up in the air. Many analysts think tha...

Elections in Chile: Polarization?
CHILE · Report · 01 Dec 2017

Now that the dust has settled and the campaign for the run-off has truly begun, only two things are certain: the race between Sebastían Piñera and Alejandro Guillier is a toss-up (the latest polls have them basically tied) and Chile has become increasingly and perhaps dangerously polarized. Judgi...

Nascent Recovery Could Be Tempered by Political Outcomes
CHILE · Report · 01 Dec 2017

Though Q2 figures clearly confirmed the sluggishness of the Chilean economy in H1, Q3 numbers offered some green shoots, especially in exports and machinery, and in equipment investment. GDP growth recovered, to 2.2% y/y in Q3, from 1% y/y in Q2, with production strongly favoring the volatile nat...

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