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Investment data for Jan-Mar 2019
INDIA · Report · 05 Apr 2019

One of the most important elements of business cycle conditions in India is investment. The official GDP data yields poor estimates of investment demand. We construct aggregates using micro data about individual projects. Overall investment under implementation grew by about 10% in the last five ...

China’s slowing property market and the impact on economic stability
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Apr 2019

The China property market has regained investors’ attention as the most important pillar of a recovery story. However, recent data on land sales, property financing, and consumption trends suggest analysts may be too optimistic. Our views are more pessimistic: * Weakening property prices...

Could Margarita break the PLD deadlock?
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 05 Apr 2019

Robust growth and low inflation marked the beginning of 2019, with economic activity expanding 5.9% between January and February, and February inflation at 0.37%. Accumulated inflation through February was 0.2%, and annualized inflation was 1.19% -- well below the lower limit of the Monetary Prog...

​Inflation drops to 3.3%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2019

Inflation continued to fall sharply to 3.3% in March from 3.8% in February and 4.4% in January. The latest inflation print is below the 3.5% market consensus. The overall price level was unchanged from last month, with declines in the prices of key food commodities such as fish, vegetables, and r...

Headwinds facing President Ramaphosa and his political strategy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Apr 2019

Dr. Iraj Abedian in collaboration with Dr Mzukisi Qobo, formerly Chief Director of Trade Policy at the Department of Trade and Industry ​ * The 2019 elections are likely to be the most decisive in the factional battles within the ANC, and they will give early indication of President Cyril Rama...

​Mind the S-400s!
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Apr 2019 · 1 response

It isnot only the recount of votes in Istanbul and now in Ankara that investors should watch closely to judge Erdogan’s future course of action and market response, but rapidly escalating S-400 tensions, too.The twin troubles are juxtaposed on a very shaky currency defended by rapidly evaporating...

Presidential Debates at the National Olympic Stadium
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Apr 2019

As soon as exit-polls were released on Sunday, there has unfolded a discussion whether Zelenskiy will go to the debate or will skip them.The point is that the presidential race frontrunner Volodymyr Zelenskiy appeared to be a poor public speaker. It was a shocking finding for many Ukrainians. Peo...

Nazarbayev resigns while retaining power: looking ahead
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2019

On March 19, Nursultan Nazarbayev announced on TV his resignation from the position of President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Kassym-Jomart Tokaev, speaker of the Senate, will temporarily fulfill the functions of the President. Tokaev’s previous position, second in the Constitutional hierarchy,...

Duterte orders contracts review
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Apr 2019

President Rodrigo Duterte’s order to review contracts entered into by the government with the private sector and foreign governments has met with no small amount of unease not only among its private sector partners in infrastructure projects but also among those worried about its impact on percep...

​March inflation print: more of the same
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2019

Consumer prices rose by 1%, m/m, in March, broadly in line with the consensus, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence remaining flat at some 19.7%. Twelve-month domestic-PPI inflation was also unchanged, at 29.6%, with both indicators, as well as the spread between the two -- at around 10 percenta...

Prospects for a Zelenskiy presidency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2019

Zelenskiy looks like he is heading for victory in the second round of elections. Yulia Tymoshenko surprised some by refusing to endorse either candidate now that she has been knocked out of the election. Some expected her to give her backing to Zelenskiy. Markets have reacted positively to the li...

Another tiny MNB step in the tightening direction
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Apr 2019

Following a 10 bps increase in the O/N deposit rate from March 27, the MNB carried out its second small step on its road towards monetary tightening yesterday. This was a HUF10bn reduction of the outstanding stock of FX swaps, to HUF1979bn, from April 3 as the value date.As well known to the read...

Conference Call: Turkey's political trajectory after the elections: Is it the elections or the S-400’s?
TURKEY · Presentation · 02 Apr 2019

A conference call by Atilla Yesilada on Turkey's political trajectory after the elections: Is it the elections or the S-400’s? How will the outcome of the municipal elections in Turkey determine the country’s monetary policy and path of the currency going forward? Will the political crisis invol...

​What now?
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Apr 2019 · 1 response

Assuming Istanbul stays in CHP hands, I now declare CHP-IYIP alliance the victor of the local elections.This declaration is not about my perception of the result, but how I think the rank and file of AKP would read it.As I have said several times before, Turkish politics is about cronyism and pat...

JEP-XIT
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Apr 2019

President Iván Duque’s objection to six articles of the Special Peace Jurisdiction (JEP) Act has created a Brexit moment for Colombia. Duque had two alternatives: first, even if he disliked the peace agreement, he could have accepted it, and have tried to impose the rule of law. This would have “...

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