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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GUATEMALA: In a poverty trap
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Aug 2018

Our revised 2018-2019 outlook for Guatemala has the same characteristics as our outlook of last March: Slow growth, relatively low inflation and depreciation, a moderate fiscal deficit, government debt below 25% of nominal GDP and monetary control. The outlook calls for GDP growth of 2.8% to 3....

Economics: More studies needed for the Maya Train
MEXICO · Report · 28 Aug 2018

The Maya Train project that Andrés Manuel López Obrador promised during the campaign and has since greatly expanded would pass through five states in Mexico’s southeast: Yucatán, Quintana Roo, Chiapas, Tabasco and Campeche. It is being projected primarily as a way to encourage more tourists to ve...

Mexico and US finally reach a bilateral trade agreement
MEXICO · In Brief · 28 Aug 2018

After more than one year of hard discussions and uncertainty about trade relations, Mexico and the US announced yesterday a preliminary trade agreement that modernizes NAFTA. The main issues that stalled negotiations in the past few weeks were resolved. Even though details have not yet been revea...

Politics: Wither the Education Reform?
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2018

The sweeping changes to education laws that constituted the first in a series of structural reforms passed during the first half of President Enrique Peña’s administration introduced major changes into the entire system, beginning with a constitutional guarantee that all Mexicans have a right to ...

The campaign will enter a new phase and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Aug 2018 · 1 response

The electoral campaign enters a new phase, with the airing of electoral ads on radio and TV this Friday, August 31. Candidates whose nominations have been contested have until Friday to present their defense to Electoral Courts. Jornal Nacional (Globo TV) begins a series of interviews with the pr...

Piñera’s tax ‟reintegration”
CHILE · Report · 27 Aug 2018

One would have thought that Sebastián Piñera would have been much more eager to fix those aspects of Bachelet's reforms that were thought to be so negative for the Chilean economy. Indeed, it is striking that the economy has grown as it has given that all those damaging policies, which some feare...

Exchange rate volatility and fiscal fragility
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Aug 2018

Last week Brazil was once again included in the group of countries facing the largest currency depreciations. Unlike Turkey and Argentina, which are highly dependent on capital inflows to finance their current account deficits, Brazil has no balance of payment problems. In the past 12 months, its...

Following a weak Q218, a modest improvement expected in Q3
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Aug 2018

Most economic indicators underline soft growth in Q218, but some modest acceleration is expected in Q3. Despite the BoI criticism, fiscal credibility is expected to be maintained and fiscal adjustments likely following the 2019 elections. Most factors are pointing to modest inflation: shekel appr...

Despite financial turbulence, fundamentals are sound
CHINA · Report · 27 Aug 2018

Growth is still stable amid the uncertainty of trade war. Industrial output was up 6% y/y in July, the same rate as in June, and down 0.6 pps from Q2, still in a stable zone. Investment increased 3% y/y in July, down 2.2 pps from Q2, and down 3.8 pps from July 2017, showing a stark decline. But p...

Risk-off
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 27 Aug 2018

The past few months have proved challenging for the Philippines amidst risk-off global market conditions and a string of surprises that have led to the current mood of heightened caution. Despite robust domestic demand, economic growth slowed sharply, dragged down by net exports. Capacity const...

​Post-vacation agenda:Pastor Brunson is joined by Idlib Crisis
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2018

It was anything but a tranquil Eid al-Fitr in Ankara. Despite public denials, backdoor negotiations to end the stalemateabout Pastor Brunson and other American detainees in Turkey moved ahead without a break-through. Theseefforts were joined by shuttle diplomacy between Ankara and Moscow, as Assa...

A $725 million private placement
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Aug 2018

On August 24, in the midst of National Independence Day celebrations, Ukraine raised $725 million at the international market through private placement. I have a mixed impression from this issue. The funds have been attracted only for six months. And the yield was reported 9% which is quite expen...

A post-holiday recap
TURKEY · Report · 24 Aug 2018

Before another -- most likely -- volatile week starts on Monday, after this week’s calm thanks to the long religious holiday, I thought a quick (economics-focused) sequel to our last joint-piece (The Week of Fear and Loathing, August 12, 2018) might be useful. What has helped us get through the m...

Fiscal data for H1 signify the need to tighten policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2018

A few days ago, the MNB reported the general government's net financing requirement for Q2 at 2.2% of GDP, which implies 1.4% of GDP for the whole of H1. These figures are compiled according to ESA-2010, just as the general government balance, the main fiscal policy indicator for EU-members, but ...

Land Trumps SA Political Economy Concerns
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Aug 2018 · 1 response

Understandably, the issue of land expropriation without compensation is a big prevailing debate in the country, it has been since December 2017 when the ANC Elective Congress resolved to consider land distribution without expropriation. This then led to a Parliamentary Vote, proposed by the EFF a...

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