NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - NORTH AMERICA TRADE WAR: IMPLICATIONS FOR MEXICO...

At the doors of purgatory
TURKEY · Report · 08 Apr 2018

Defining moments in Turko-American relationship are approaching fast, as an evangelical protestant pastor, Mr. Brunson, lines up for trial, where a guilty sentence could seriously upset the Congress, and even the White House. The trial will come on the heels of the sentencing of convicted Iran sa...

Panama – Venezuela: a crescendo, on the eve of the Summit of the Americas
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Apr 2018

The Panama – Venezuela crisis is part of a process that began last year. The crescendo comes just a week before the Summit of the Americas, scheduled on April 13-14 in Lima, Peru. In October 2017, the Panamanian government set visa requirements for Venezuelan citizens. Two months later, the Venez...

Six More Years
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Apr 2018

Vladimir Putin won the presidential election with an overwhelming 77% of the vote and voter turnout of 67.5%. Although some of this may be a result of fraud, it is clear that the large majority of the votes were won because of popular support. Mr. Putin won in every single federal entity in the c...

Commercial and diplomatic relations between Venezuela and Panama in a lowest point in recent history
PANAMA · In Brief · 06 Apr 2018

Venezuela suspended several commercial and financial activities with Panama’s Government and a group of Panamanian companies as a measure to protect “their economic system”. The list includes President Juan Carlos Varela and all his Ministers, and Panama’s flag carrier Copa Airlines. On April 5th...

Temer’s popularity remains stable and the population begins to perceive economic recovery
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Apr 2018

The CNI/Ibope poll released this Thursday, April 5, shows that the popularity of Michel Temer remains practically unchanged compared to the poll from December of last year. However, there has been an improvement of “regular” evaluations and a decrease in negative evaluations compared to September...

Consequences of the Supreme Court decision to reject Lula’s habeas corpus
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Apr 2018

The Federal Supreme Court’s decision to reject Lula’s habeas corpus (HC) by 6 votes to 5 is an emblematic defeat for the former president and the PT. The result of the trial will have important political consequences.

A rate hike in May? (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2018

Headline inflation climbed further to 4.3% in March (4.8% under the old series) from 3.8% in February and 3.4% in January. The latest inflation print is slightly above the midpoint of the BSP’s 3.8-4.6% forecast for the month and what most analysts expected. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, monthl...

Simple Fidesz majority is the most likely outcome on Sunday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Apr 2018

Four days ahead of the parliamentary election, due on Sunday, a simple majority (between 50% and two-thirds of all mandates) won by the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance seems to be the most likely, and also the most widely expected, outcome. Most recently, Fidesz, formerly seen as an easy winner of...

COSTA RICA: Carlos Alvarado elected President by a wide margin, but alliances should be necessary
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 04 Apr 2018

As explained in our Special Report of February 6, the general elections of February 4 decided the composition of Congress but not the Presidency. As no presidential candidate reached at least 40% of the valid vote, the first and second placed-finishers went to a second round on April 1. The date ...

A rate hike in May? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Apr 2018

Market concern over the BSP’s decision to keep policy interest rates on hold appears to be growing. An early warning is of overheating risks with continuing double-digit private sector credit growth and expectations of higher public sector spending and borrowing for its infrastructure building pr...

Macroeconomic outlook
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 03 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

We expect a slower economic recovery, higher inflation, a larger current account deficit and a more depreciated exchange rate. See our forecast for the first round presidential election.

Core Inflation Drops, Likely Temporarily
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2018

Consumer prices rose by 1% in March, exactly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI rate easing slightly -- basically due to rounding -- to 10.2%, from 10.3% in February. Producer prices rose sharply however, to 14.3% from 13.7%, on the back of rising energy prices, suggesting that cost...

Weekly topics - Shot down during takeoff?
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Apr 2018

Expectations surround the Federal Supreme Court decision on the habeas corpus filed by former President Lula. The arrest of individuals close to Michel Temer will have repercussions in Congress. Several members of the Executive will leave their positions to run in the October elections. The deadl...

Credit and economic activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Apr 2018

The current economic recovery is the slowest since CODACE started dating economic cycles in Brazil. Assuming that GDP grew by 0.5% in the first quarter – a pace that the available indicators suggest is most likely – the economy would need to grow at a yearly pace of nearly 6% in the next three qu...

Despite strong consumer confidence, PC softens modestly
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Apr 2018

The labor market remains tight, with unemployment at 3.8% in February. The Poalim confidence index reached a record level in March but private consumption indicators point to some modest slowing of domestic demand. This could be due in part to increasing e-commerce and travel abroad. While this t...