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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of July 24
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2017

In the final week of the parliamentary recess, intense negotiations continue to revolve around the vote on the accusation against President Michel Temer in the Lower House. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Central Bank meets to set the benchmark interest rate. Several important indicators will be re...

“No, The Table Wasn’t Set”
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Jul 2017 · 1 response

“No, the table wasn’t set.” That was President Lenín Moreno’s reply to former president Rafael Correa, who claimed he left the table “set for the new government” -- referring to a supposedly buoyant economic situation (assessed as such only by Correa and his loyal followers in Congress, and by so...

We Forecast the SELIC Rate at the End of the Year will be 7.5%
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jul 2017

We have altered our projection for the SELIC rate at the end of 2017 to 7.5% a year, for three reasons. First, although the economy is on the verge of recovery, all indications are that it will be very slow, keeping the GDP gap negative for a good while longer. Second, mainly due to a highly favo...

Polish presidential veto and its repercussions on Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2017

Polish president Andrzej Duda announced today his veto to two highly contentious new parliamentary acts, which would seriously reduce the independence of Polish courts, in an aggressive effort by the Polish governing party PiS to gain more influence over judicial activity in the country. Parliame...

Reiteration of the Commitment to the Fiscal Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jul 2017

Despite the continuing signs of the government’s political weakness and pressures for more spending that boosts congressional support for the president, the economic team reacted by sending encouraging signals about their commitment to the fiscal target. The announcement of an additional budget c...

State of the Nation Address, Year 2
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Jul 2017

The President's speech today leaves little doubt that package 1 of the comprehensive tax reform proposal, which the lower house approved in late May, will also hurdle Senate review. With Senators squirming in their seats, the President stressed that he wants passage "in full", presumably referrin...

Economics: The Pros and Cons of SAR at 20
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jul 2017

The country’s the Retirement Savings System (SAR), which is based on personalized savings accounts, turned 20 this month and it has quite a number of accomplishments worth celebrating. SAR system advantages include the way its individual accounts afford greater transparency in resource availabili...

Politics: A System that Remains Broken
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jul 2017

The handling by the national electoral authority of the most recent elections, especially those of Coahuila and the State of Mexico, provides ample evidence of the gravest problems plaguing electoral democracy in Mexico: ignoring campaign spending limits, the willingness of all political parties ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2017

Turkey’s habit of arresting people suspected of anti-government activity at the slightest doubt has exhausted the patience of Germany, which now has three of its citizens in prison. Berlin threatens economic and political sanctions, a new low in Turko-EU relations. We predict with 75% odds that t...

The SARB Implements its First Rate Cut Following an End to its Tightening Cycle
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Jul 2017

The South African Reserve Bank’s MPC announced a 25 basis point cut from 7% (the rate that prevailed since March 2016) to 6.75%, effective from July 21. The Reserve Bank MPC’s decision to cut interest rates came in the wake of the latest inflation figures showing that headline CPI for June ca...

Renegotiation of NAFTA: Positive Signs, but Caution is Recommended
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2017

The “Summary of Objectives for the NAFTA Renegotiation” published by the U.S Government was in general well received by Mexican editorialists as well as financial markets. The document confirms the US goal to “maintain existing reciprocal duty-free market access… for goods and services”. Here ...

HEADS UP: A new conflict brewing up between Turkey and Germany
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Jul 2017

The Germany Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Sigmar Gabriel stated—according to Deutsche Welle- that "We want Turkey to be a part of the West, or at least remain in its current position, but it takes two to tango," Sigmar Gabriel at a press conference in Berlin. "I cannot make out any willingness...

Economics: State Debt Monitor Falls Short
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jul 2017

The Ministry of Finance has published its “Alert System” of state government debt, as well as the indicators on which its new color coded alerts are based, which in this inaugural edition corresponded to readings of subnational government finance for year-end 2016. The system ranked one state ...

Politics: Hurdles to a Broad Opposition Front
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jul 2017

The national leaderships of the PAN and PRD continue to press for a broad opposition front for next year’s elections after seeing, yet again, that the PRI’s electoral victories in June were made possible by opposition parties' competing against one another in crucial gubernatorial contests. P...

Tight cash flow in the months ahead
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Jul 2017 · 1 response

The government is carefully managing the country's tight forex cash flow, with little options to raise funds in the international market. Cashed-in exports in the first half of 2017 added up to $14 billion, 22 percent higher than in the first half of 2016, but the government's room to maneuver sh...

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