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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 6
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Brazil Economics databank Nov 17
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Central America databank Oct 30
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Chile databank Nov 2
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 3
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 22
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Ecuador databank Nov 28
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 24
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Hungary databank Nov 24
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India databank Nov 21
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Mexico databank Nov 20
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Panama databank Oct 11
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Peru databank Nov 9
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Philippines databank Aug 11
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Russia Economics databank Nov 10
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South Africa databank Nov 27
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Turkey databank Aug 4
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Ukraine databank Oct 18
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Uruguay databank Oct 10
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Venezuela databank Nov 2
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR: LATIN AMERICA IN 2024 - ANOTHER BIG YEAR...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Brighter Prospects for 2016
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Dec 2015
As the year comes to a close, we take stock of the main trends of 2015, and make predictions for 2016. At the beginning of 2015, the Indonesian landscape was mired in major political uncertainty, with the presidential election leaving the new government in a weak position, and dealing with a c...
Hungary sovereign credit may be upgraded in November 2016
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2015
The top three rating agencies published their revision dates for Hungary's sovereign credit for 2016. Moody's will make its first revision on March 4, followed by July 8 and then by November 4. S&P will look at Hungary on March 18 and September 16, and Fitch Ratings will do so on May 20 and Novem...
The Challenges Ahead for 2016
PANAMA · Report · 30 Dec 2015
Amidst regional distress, our expectation is that Panama’s GDP will grow 5.6%-5.7% this year. We expect private consumption to continue to offset the fallout from lower private and public investment, as well as the impact of a stronger US Dollar on net exports. The MEF is projecting growth at a s...
A Sad Lack of Growth Prospects
UKRAINE · Forecast · 30 Dec 2015
All indicators suggest that 2016 will see GDP growth of 1.2% y/y . The bad news is that this minor rise is primarily due to a low comparative base, after two years of contraction. Unfortunately, we don’t see solid evidence that growth will continue.External demand, traditionally at the core of th...
The Year Ahead: Peace, Tax Reform, and Mild Growth
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Dec 2015
Colombian GDP grew by 3.2% in Q3 – a reasonably good result, given the economic shock. Strong domestic demand has helped compensate for falling exports. Commerce GDP was up a surprising 4.8% in Q3. Private consumption has climbed on both unusually low unemployment and a still-dynamic credit marke...
A Promising Start (but Big Challenges Ahead)
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Dec 2015
In just two weeks, Mauricio Macri has already followed through on his first electoral promise: to eliminate the exchange rate controls and the main taxes and restrictions on foreign trade. The realignment of relative prices that started with the exchange rate unification and the elimination of...
Explosion of Candidates Under Growth Stagnation
PERU · Report · 28 Dec 2015
We expect at least ten of the 17 current presidential candidates to stay in the race, after the January 11th deadline to register to run in the April 10th elections. December polls show Keiko Fujimori maintaining her lead, with voter intentions at 30%- 35%, and Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski a distant sec...
Parliament approves budget-2016
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Dec 2015
MPs finally voted in budget-2016 and all supporting legislations including tax changes. The final version of budget was not released yet since many last-minute changes were introduced. However, from transcripts we know that the deficit was left unchanged UAH 83.7 billion (3.7% of GDP) as the IMF ...
Pollution Made Priority, Despite Growth Slowdown
CHINA · Report · 24 Dec 2015
With the IMF’s inclusion of the RMB in its SDR basket, the People’s Bank of China on December 11th published an “RMB index,” against 13 major currencies. This indicates that the RMB exchange rate has officially shifted back to its formally announced regime of “managed floating with reference to a...
Economics: The Puzzle of Conflicting Indicators
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2015
The contrast between the weak behavior of Mexico’s GDP in the first six months of 2015 and various other economic indicators prompted the head of Mexico’s Tax Authority (SAT), Aristóteles Núñez, and some analysts to begin arguing in October that there was a probability that the methodology the au...
Politics: Administration’s Second-half Focus
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2015
The second half of the six-year administration of President Enrique Peña will be defined by two major issues that are interlinked: the effective implementation of the structural reforms that were passed during the current government’s first year in office, and trying to manage a presidential succ...
Mixed Growth, Fragile Finances
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Dec 2015
Costa Rica is headed toward the second lowest GDP growth rate in the region, after El Salvador. Indicators show some improvement, though still suggest pessimism. The outlook for 2016 looks somewhat better: both imports and exports are on track to reverse their decreasing trend soon, as the effect...
Choosing more debt, more unemployment, or transfers
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 23 Dec 2015
Special points to highlight in this issue: In 2016 the PBoC will evaluate the change in the value of the RMB not just in dollar terms but increasingly in terms of a wider basket of currencies. We should not discount the possibility, however, that after a quarter or two of dollar strength o...
A tight race
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Dec 2015
In recent days, three pollsters, seen generally as independent and trustworthy, published the results of their December surveys on voter preferences for the next President of the country. There are notable differences in the numbers especially in the one done by Pulse Asia, where VP Jejomar Binay...
MPC: On a Wing and a Prayer
TURKEY · Report · 22 Dec 2015
The Monetary Policy Committee surprised markets today – us, too, though we had not completely ruled out such an outcome – by not changing any of the rates (see chart). This is a pretty disappointing move that is hard to explain, other than, of course, by political motives. Otherwise, why would th...