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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

COSTA RICA: A cloudy outlook
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Jul 2018

The 2018-2019 outlook for the Costa Rican economy is cloudy. H1 2018 showed a slowdown in economic activity, a high central government financial deficit and a government debt-to-GDP ratio that had already surpassed 50% of GDP. On the other hand, inflation remains near the lower limit of the Centr...

​Father Brunson case: White House reads the riot act
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2018

24 hours after “terror suspect” pastor Andrew Brunson was released to house arrest, White House signaled in the strongest possible terms that he needs to be sent home, lest Turkey suffers “large sanctions”. Turkish officials responded with indignation, but the die is cast. This is clearly a break...

Maduro controls politics but not inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Jul 2018

With elections over and the opposition grappling with its own internal differences, Nicolás Maduro has focused on renewing his alliance with the military and keeping a firm grip on the ruling PSUV. He and the top military brass have a tight relationship and are keeping a sharp lookout for any sig...

​Father Brunson’s fate tells many tales
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2018

Dual elections and the excruciating summer heat didn’t bring tranquility to Turkish politics or peace of mind to the long-suffering political analyst of GSP- Turkey team, who is selflessly sacrificing his vacation to serve his audience. On Wednesday, a Turkish court suddenly ruled to remand Pasto...

​A third rate hike in August
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Jul 2018

In a Q&A session with select analysts this afternoon, BSP Governor Nestor Espenilla told participants to expect "strong follow through" in monetary action on August 9, the next Monetary Board meeting. Asked what he meant by "strong", he replied "at least 25bps." Reasons given for the BSP’s increa...

A monetary policy measure - by the debt management agency
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jul 2018

ÁKK, the government's debt management agency has just announced a 50 bps increase in the interest it pays on fixed-rate household bonds, i.e. the special kind of HUF-denominated government debt, which is only available for purchase by domestic households. Thus the fixed interest paid on 0.5, 1 an...

The MNB said or did absolutely nothing, appears content with the current position of the forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2018

Just as expected, the MNB said or did absolutely nothing new at today's rate-setting meeting, even though the forint is slightly weaker and more volatile than it was before the late-June Monetary Council meeting. So it looks like the MNB is in fact satisfied with the current market situation. The...

MPC disappoints, keeps rates unchanged
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2018

At today's meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee did not change any of the short-term interest rates, keeping one-week repo rate (policy rate) at 17.75% and O/N lending and borrowing rates at 19.25% and 16.25%, respectively (see graph). Recall that at the June 7th meeting, the MPC had ‘overdeliv...

The Centrão is expected to announce formal support for Alckmin and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2018

The Centrão is expected to announce formal support for Geraldo Alckmin’s (PSDB) presidential candidacy. Lula’s PT and Ciro Gomes’ PDT are trying to attract other parties, such as the PCdoB and PSB, to their coalitions. President Michel Temer travels to Africa, and STF Minister Cármen Lúcia takes ...

Monetary Council tomorrow: no policy change, no important announcement expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jul 2018

Analysts by and large uniformly expect no policy change and no important announcement to come out of tomorrow's Monetary Council rate-setting meeting.Even though the forint is somewhat weaker now than it was immediately before the June rate-setting meeting, the heavy depreciation pressure, which ...

Politics: 50 shades of policy - Part II: Politics
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jul 2018

The 50 points future President Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced a week ago Sunday codify many of his most popular campaign commitments, but the extent to which they appear to have been slapped together in a slipshod and at times seemingly contradictory manner raise concerns as to just how mu...

Economics: 50 shades of policy - Part I: The economy
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jul 2018

Since the recent unveiling of his 50-point plan to combat corruption and achieve "republican austerity", López Obrador has put forward ideas that could have a considerable impact on the way the federal budget is allocated. The changes are designed to free up money with which to fund up to 500 bil...

Next quarters, certain stagflation; afterwards, uncertain recovery
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 23 Jul 2018

In retrospect, immediately after the release of our last quarterly forecast on April 20, the Argentine economy suffered a severe sudden stop in the flow of foreign capital, particularly from the beginning of May. As a consequence, the foreign exchange rate jumped from about 20 to approximately 28...

Weak Yuan compensating for potential trade war losses
CHINA · Report · 23 Jul 2018

GDP was up 6.8% y/y in H1, the same rate as in H2 2017. Industrial output was up 6.7% y/y, up 0.4 pps from H2 2017. Fixed asset investment was up 6% y/y in H1, down 2.6 pps from H1 2017, and up only 0.3% y/y in real terms, down 3.5 pps from last H1. The major drop of state investment is likel...

State of the Nation Address 2018
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2018

As promised, President Rodrigo Duterte kept to his prepared speech in his third annual report to congress this afternoon. Since members of his cabinet had in past weeks presented “Pre-SONA” reports on the Duterte Administration’s Year 2 achievements, the President concentrated on outlining his ad...

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