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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 6
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Brazil Economics databank Nov 17
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Central America databank Oct 30
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Chile databank Nov 2
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 3
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 22
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Ecuador databank Nov 28
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 24
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Hungary databank Nov 24
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India databank Nov 21
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Mexico databank Nov 20
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Panama databank Oct 11
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Peru databank Nov 9
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Philippines databank Aug 11
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Russia Economics databank Nov 10
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South Africa databank Nov 27
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Turkey databank Aug 4
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Ukraine databank Oct 18
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Uruguay databank Oct 10
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Venezuela databank Nov 2
NEWS FLASH
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COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Correa The Chess Player
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Dec 2015
Six months ago, Correa was ready to run for another election in 2017 and was strongly pushing reforms to the Constitution that would allow indefinite re-election. A few weeks ago, he declared his presence in the 2017 elections was not necessary given the evidence of a week and not articulated opp...
New Alliance Reconfigures the Election Scenario
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 22 Dec 2015
The electoral scenario keeps shifting, sometimes in surprising ways. Last week, the social democratic PRM and the conservative PRSC – the latter a traditional ally of the ruling PLD -- announced an electoral alliance, after negotiations between the PRSC and the PLD failed to generate a satisfacto...
Whirlwind
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Dec 2015
The opposition won in a landslide on December 6, taking 58 percent of the national vote and a two-thirds National Assembly majority. Participation reached 74 percent, a record for legislative elections. Voters turned on the powerful heads of Maduro’s ruling coalition by voting against coalitio...
Week of December 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Dec 2015
This is the last week of legislative activity in Congress. According to the Constitution, congressmen begin their recess this Wednesday (12/23). On Monday, Lower House President Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) meets with party leaders. The main item on the agenda is to discuss the impeachment proceedi...
The Latest Economic Activity Indicators
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Dec 2015
Last week two important indicators of economic activity were published: a) the IBC-Br, pointing to a further GDP contraction; and b) the real retail sales data (restricted sense, excluding cars and construction materials), which showed slight growth after eight straight months of decline. This la...
MPC Preview: Simplification to Start
TURKEY · Report · 21 Dec 2015
The Monetary Policy Committee will hold its regular monthly meeting tomorrow to decide on the short-term interest rates. In line with the messages delivered earlier by the CBRT, the market expects – generally speaking – a hike of the weekly repo rate and the O/N borrowing rate, currently at 7.5% ...
Policy-makers show signs of hyperactivity
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2015 · 3 responses
Less than two weeks after a series of MNB comments on what they were going to do to loosen policy soon, by which they managed to talk DOWN the forint moderately, and just days after the December rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council, at which they took no new measures at all, policy-makers...
Fighting for Growth in 2016
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Dec 2015
Though slightly stronger in Q3, GDP growth’s decelerating trend has also been confirmed. Y/y growth was pulled down by this year’s poor agricultural results; if we exclude those, the slowdown from 2014 is barely noticeable. However, the real story is told by the recent q/q growth rates, which sug...
The STF reinforces the role of the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2015
The decision by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) increases the confusion that the impeachment proceedings have added to Brazilian politics. It favored the government and displeased the opposition. The majority of the ministers decided that it is up to the Senate to install the process, or not. Thi...
Dilma Rousseff Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2015
The replacement of Joaquim Levy by Nelson Barbosa in the Ministry of Finance is another negative signal from the government that the fiscal adjustment might not be taken as seriously as before. Concerned with the reaction from the markets, the Chief of Staff, Jaques Wagner, and the Central Bank p...
A free FX market, at last
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Dec 2015
Finally the long anticipated day came. Argentina liberalized its FX rate, abandoning irrational and anachronistic capital controls implemented towards the end of 2011. Those controls kept Argentina in a contradictive state regarding its FX-rate-regime. The official FX market was a quasi-fixed reg...
Slower growth amidst regional uncertainties
PANAMA · Forecast · 17 Dec 2015
The Panamanian economy continues on its path towards more moderate growth: real GDP expanded by 5.6% in Q3 and 5.8% until September 2015 y/y. Transportation, storage and communications, realty and services to business, construction, financial intermediation, and electricity, gas and water were th...
Finance Ministry rejects to pay on Russian debt, official statement
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Dec 2015
Yesterday, on December 16 the IMF Executive Board decided that $3 billion of Ukrainian Eurobonds Russia’s National Wealth Fund purchased in 2013 is an official claim for the purposes of the Fund’s policy on arrears to official bilateral creditors. Previously, on December 8 the IMF changed its len...
Impeachment proceedings: main points in the rapporteur’s vote
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Dec 2015
Luiz Edson Fachin, Minister of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), voted on December 16 against the possibility of the Senate’s refusing the installation of the impeachment process approved by the House of Representatives. After Fachin read his vote on the procedure of the impeachment proceedings...
Economics: Pemex’s Ongoing Downward Spiral
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2015
Executive Summary Pemex’s release of its financial results for the third quarter of 2015 prompted Moody’s to lower its global rating on the company from A3 to Baa1, a level reflecting low-to-moderate risk, which the agency said resulted from expectations that “Pemex’s credit metrics will deterior...