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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Growth Despite Softer Consumption, in the Twilight of the Administration
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2017

Economic data released in August showed stronger GDP (+3.0% yoy for 2Q17) even as growth in industrial activity was restricted almost entirely to manufacturing (+4.0%). Cyclical indicators were positive as were readings of private consumption, which sustained its momentum (+ 4.0% in May), led by ...

Aiming for an Image of Judicial Independence
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 05 Sep 2017 · 1 response

The National Council of the Magistracy (CNM) last month appointed new judges to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the highest court for the resolution of electoral conflicts. Although the appointments, factually under control of President Danilo Medina, secured the PLD’s control over the court,...

Fuel prices likely to push up yoy CPI-inflation markedly in August
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2017

Please, be prepared this Friday (September 8) for a marked jump by the yoy rate of CPI-inflation, to 2.6% in August from 2.1% in July, despite our expectation of zero one-month change in average prices in August. This is likely to be caused by fuel prices alone (7.5% of the CPI basket), which we ...

Core Rises Further Despite Lira Stability
TURKEY · Report · 05 Sep 2017

Consumer prices rose by a markedly higher than expected 0.5% in August, taking the 12-month rate sharply higher to 10.7%, from 9.8% in July. Producer prices and core inflation (C-index) also rose further to 16.3% and 10.2%, respectively (from 15.5% and 9.6%), while service inflation was stable, b...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2017

The end of the recession – sealed by two straight quarters of GDP growth – and the continuing decline of inflation, interest rates and unemployment, are positive signs offered by the competent economic team. However, on the political side the picture is the opposite. The president’s fragility, re...

Week of September 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2017

This Thursday’s holiday (Independence Day) will reduce the pace in Congress, which may conclude the vote on the new fiscal targets for 2017 and 2018. In the Lower House, another attempt to move forward with Political Reform and Refis; in the Senate, the Provisional Measure that creates the TLP co...

Chile’s top economic team walks away
CHILE · Report · 04 Sep 2017

Chile’s entire economic team resigned last week, and the Santiago stock market was barely affected. Yet the news was a shock to the country’s political system. Indeed, the departure of Finance Minister Rodrigo Valdes, Deputy Finance Minister Alejandro Micco, and Economy Minister Luis Felipe Césp...

End of the Recession and Resumption of Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2017

GDP has expanded in the past two quarters, indicating that the CODACE will likely date the end of the recession as the last quarter of 2016. As expected, on the demand side, GDP growth in the second quarter of 2017 was driven by increased household consumption, which expanded by an annualized rat...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2017

Turkey enters autumn season with harshly enforced calm at home, but the opposition is gathering force. The short-term threats to political risk premium emanate from abroad. Tensions with Germany escalated another notch, when Turkey arrested yet another Germany couple. Berlin will have to retaliat...

Cementing the foundations of liberal democracy
INDIA · Report · 01 Sep 2017

In recent years, there has been increasing nervousness about the soundness of Indian democracy. There are concerns that democracy has become reduced to the rite of elections every five years, that India is succumbing to the problems of majoritarian bias and middle class religiosity plus nationali...

What will Wang Qishan Do?
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 31 Aug 2017

If the rumors are true that Wang Qishan will retire for health reasons, and will have no role, either in the Standing Committee or in a Leading Group, it would not represent, in my opinion, good news for China's economic adjustment. This will in the best of cases be a brutally difficult process a...

The Party Congress Date is Set
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 31 Aug 2017

The Party Congress has been officially set for October 18, which seems smack in the middle of the expected range. I asked one of my students to get me the previous dates, and she told me: 18th Congress: 2012.11.8 17th Congress: 2007.10.15 16th Congress: 2002.11.8 15th Congress: 1997.9.12 One piec...

New threats, familiar dilemmas
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Aug 2017

U.S. sanctions against Venezuela aim to starve its public sector of resources but leave enough room for Venezuela to meet foreign debt obligations. Though we perceive that the risk of messy default has grown, we continue to believe that the government will go to great lengths to prevent the chaos...

Canal Prepares for Greater Global Competition as Panama Prepares for Financial Transparency
PANAMA · Report · 30 Aug 2017

In this report, we review the most recent economic data, and present two positive themes that support our medium-term forecast: initiatives to promote transparency in the financial sector, and several logistics projects in the Canal area Recent data show that service and exports sectors are ex...

Guatemala: No Surprises, But Rising Worry
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Aug 2017

The outlook for the Guatemalan economy has not changed significantly since March, when we discussed our 2017-2018 outlook. Growth continues to be moderate; support for the current account remains positive, basically due to a rise in private remittances; the fiscal situation remains under control;...

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