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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian Ministry of Finance pegs borrowing to inflation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2018

As of 19 December the Ministry of Finance will issue inflation linked Rubles denominated debt OFZs on a monthly basis. There is a growing demand for bonds linked to inflation. This is because economic uncertainty makes investors want to ensure that the value of their returns are not diminished by...

MPC preview+
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee will meet tomorrow (December 13, 2018). The consensus forecasts we’ve seen from multiple media sources uniformly anticipate no change in short-term rates. We strongly concur with the consensus, although, given the Bank’s track record, we would never completely rule o...

Armenian election victory for governing party
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2018

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's electoral alliance won over 70% of the vote on 9 December. The My Step Alliance smashed the Republican Party which used to be the government. The Republican Party now has no one left in parliament. Pashinyan came to office earlier this year after a wave o...

South Africa’s national minimum wage to come into effect in 2019
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Dec 2018

South Africa’s National Minimum Wage Act, 2018 was gazetted on November 27, 2018 following a long period of consultation with social partners. The Act states its purpose as the advancement of economic development and social justice by: i. Improving the wages of the lowest paid workers; ii. Prot...

State elections and a new Governor
INDIA · Report · 11 Dec 2018

Two major developments in India have reduced the recent uncertainty about politics and economics in the country. The first was the counting and announcements of results of state elections in which the ruling BJP lost elections. The Congress party, which had lost the 2014 elections, made a comebac...

Politics: Inaugural festivities and the 4T
MEXICO · Report · 11 Dec 2018

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s inaugural speeches and festivities shed new light on the thinking behind his project for the Fourth Transformation (4T) of Mexico. It has long been clear the project is to involve a change of “political regime” that would bring an end to a corrupt symbiotic...

The MNB received help from tumbling fuel prices in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Dec 2018

The Statistical Office (KSH) this morning reported November CPI-inflation at -0.3% mom, 3.1% yoy, the latter sharply down from the six-year high of 3.8% yoy, measured in the previous month. Portfolio.hu, the leading economic media domestically, called the news as a major positive surprise, agains...

Cautious and gradual
CHILE · Report · 11 Dec 2018

Central Bank national accounts for Q3 show that economic activity has slowed significantly. This marks the end of the cyclical recovery. Consumption showed a clear and protracted deceleration, while investment remained relatively dynamic. Exports rebounded, after a slump of a similar magnitude in...

Anemic growth for the Russian economy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2018

The Russian Statistical Commission estimated fourth quarter GDP is up 1.3%. The quarter is not yet over. The third quarter was 1.9%. Public finances are healthy. Overall household spending and disposable income are slightly down on last year. VAT is going up. Deloitte revealed that 61% of people ...

Russia reintroduces state planning
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2018 · 2 responses

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has issued a plan to run up to an including 2035. It divides the country into economic zones. Each will be allotted federal funds to help economic development. Different regions will be tasked with different sectors of the economy to develop. However, ...

Stress at RBI
INDIA · In Brief · 10 Dec 2018

We should see the larger context of Urjit Patel's departure.1. There is significant economic stress. We are at the early stages of recovery from a tough recession that ran from 2012 to 2017. About 40% of the balance sheet of non-financial firms is in stressed firms. Matters are particularly diffi...

A major victory for the President
PERU · Report · 10 Dec 2018

Yesterday´s referendum President Martín Vizcarra promoted over four constitutional reforms has produced a resounding boost to his power. Voters did just what he asked, by a 4-to-1 margin: they supported the first three proposals and voted down the fourth. Together with the question dealing with j...

Economics: History, promises and expectations
MEXICO · Report · 10 Dec 2018

The parts of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s inaugural address before Congress and speech later that same day before a mass public event in the Zocalo square facing the National Palace were centered around a peculiar retelling of economic history in which all the country’s ills are traced...

Better perspectives in the midst of internal and external risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 10 Dec 2018 · 1 response

Our projections for 2019 are for GDP growth of 2.4% (versus 1.3% in 2018), with inflation of 4% (thus below the target of 4.25%), and the SELIC rate kept at 6.5% throughout the year. Cyclical recovery will thus accelerate, but the GDP gap will remain in negative territory, leading to inflation be...

Governor Patel resigns
INDIA · Report · 10 Dec 2018

The resignation of RBI Governor Urjit Patel was a surprise after the last RBI board meeting, which is reported to have been quite cordial. While the governor cited personal reasons for his resignation, it is suspected that the forthcoming RBI board meeting on December 14 had agenda items about RB...

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