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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The CA surplus is expected to increase in 2019-2020
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Jan 2019

The CA surplus is expected to increase in 2019-2020 on the back of strong exports of natural gas and electronic components, supportive of a strong shekel. The new BoI Governor appears to be in the dovish camp, stressing that rate hikes will depend on an acceleration of inflation. We current expec...

Industrial production still shows no signs of reaction
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jan 2019

Acceleration of the cyclical recovery will require expansion of gross fixed capital formation, leading to a better labor market and thus faster growth of household consumption. Although there are some favorable conditions, such as the low real interest rate and reduced indebtedness of companies, ...

Having the cake and eating it, too
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jan 2019

We are deviating from the weekly format today -- having sent our brief politics update on Friday (Good Tidings, Citizen, January 11, 2019) -- and provide a quick rundown of recent data releases, and share some thoughts on this coming Wednesday’s rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC...

The Finance Ministry confirmed a series of good news on 2018 fiscal results
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jan 2019

Over the last few weeks, a series of good news on the 2018 government budget results were announced, leaked, rumoured or suggested by various sources. Yesterday, the Finance Ministry confirmed a few of them, minister Varga and state secretary Banai having been the speakers. In the main, they said...

2019 likely to be difficult for the United Russia Party
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2019

United Russia (UR) is the main pro-Putin party and it is in for a challenging year. UR's ratings are down. The economy is barely growing and trust in officials is falling. No wonder the state wants more control of the internet. Almost half of Russians regions with a directly elected governor have...

Argentina 2019: At the crossroad again
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 11 Jan 2019

The Argentine economy in Q4 performed at close to our previous forecast. For 2019 and 2020, we now present quantitative forecasts for two scenarios, and discuss a third scenario we cannot quantify. Finally, we will try to guess what political impact these three scenarios would have on the elector...

Russia's road toll system in trouble
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jan 2019

Russia's road toll system is facing difficulty. It is called Platon and was launched in 2015. It involves collecting tolls from vehicles over 12 tons that use federal highways. Truck drivers have it and have blocked roads to weight stations and have impeded construction. Platon is still incomplet...

Rosneft to supply oil by rail
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jan 2019

Rosneft has signed a contract to transport oil by train to its Komsomolsk Refinery until June 2019. This is odd because Rosneft just spent USD 702 million on a pipeline. But Rosneft is unhappy with Transneft which has a monopoly on the pipeline. Transneft may be forced to cut its tariffs.

​Good Tidings, Citizen
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Jan 2019

Dear All, I’ll be out of town for the weekend to launch my third book, thus skipping my weekly contribution to the knowledge pool of the world. I thought it would be appropriate to comment on municipal elections, the winning of which moved to the center of AKP policymaking and new threats by Fore...

Hike, cut or hold?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Jan 2019

The inflation outlook has become much more benign following price declines over the last two months. We now expect the headline rate to fall back within target (2-4%) this quarter, averaging 2.9% for the full year. The significant adjustment in our inflation forecast since December (3.9%) also co...

The government is serious about selling shares of Punta Catalina power plants
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 08 Jan 2019

Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance informed that it has selected Guggenheim Securities to advise the government in the design of a potential tender for the sale of the shares of the Punta Catalina Thermoelectric Power Plant. The announcement shows that the intentions of the government are serious...

Elections in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jan 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro holds the second cabinet meeting since his inauguration. Ministers will present measures that will be executed in January. Political negotiations continue ahead of the elections for the presidencies of the Lower House and the Senate. This week’s Talking Points: • Posi...

The labor market and the cyclical recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jan 2019

The consensus projections are for modest acceleration of the cyclical recovery. The main impulse should come from fixed capital investment, and the strength of its propagation to boost consumption will depend crucially on improvement in the labor market, whose behavior will be continually monitor...

The bond market will react to the BoI macro forecast for 2019-2020
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Jan 2019

GDP growth in 2018 reached 3.2% on fairly balanced growth, but slowing from 2017, and expected to reach 2.8% in 2019. We expect a rate hold decision today but the tone of the announcement will shed some light on the new Governor's bias. More important will be the BoI macro forecast, which is like...

Election economics takes odd twists
TURKEY · Report · 06 Jan 2019

Winning local elections has become the sole priority for AKP, around which all policy decisions, including those concerning foreign affairs shall revolve between now and March 31st. There are very few polls, but plenty of commentary from pollsters. Trying to correlate those as impartially as o...

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