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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of July 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jul 2016 · 1 response

The Impeachment Committee hears the defense of removed President Dilma Rousseff. In the Senate, gambling legislation may be voted upon. The CCJ in the House may vote on the appeal presented by removed Federal Representative Eduardo Cunha, in which he questions the Ethics Council decision recommen...

The Economy under Democratic Stress
PERU · Report · 05 Jul 2016

After trouncing Keiko Fujimori by the narrowest of second-round wins, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski will be sworn in as president on July 28th, for a single five-year term. Kuczynski won by just 0.2%, or about 41,000 votes. His triumph over Fujimori, who won twice as many votes as Kuczynski in the first ...

Giving With One Hand, Taking With the Other
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Jul 2016

The economic team led by Meirelles inherited a grave fiscal situation, with an explosive public debt trajectory that cannot be fixed in the short run, even with approval of bold measures, such as the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) that would cap real growth of expenditures. Despite the n...

CPI Jumps Back Up on Food Prices
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jul 2016

Consumer price inflation surprised on the upside this time, coming in at 0.5%, above expectations of a broadly flat reading, which led to a significant jump in the 12-month rate to 7.6% from 6.6%. The full one percentage point increase in the 12-month rate was driven almost entirely by food infla...

Unemployment and Sectorial Data
CHILE · In Brief · 03 Jul 2016

Labor MarketIn the March-May rolling quarter, labor market continued to show signs of deterioration. Unemployment reached 6.8%, its highest level for this rolling quarter since 2011. The 12-month growth of employment went from 1.5% in April to 1.3% in May. In the last year, about 102,000 jobs wer...

Dialogue in limbo and recall referendum underway
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jul 2016 · 1 response

The Venezuelan government is under observation by the Organization of American States. The Permanent Council discussed the report issued by Luis Almagro, Secretary General. Further actions by the OAS are on hold for now, waiting for the Venezuelan government to signal its willingness to actively ...

A false alarm: speculation on a possible HUXIT
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2016

The UK's recent Brexit vote has apparently sparked an array of speculations by politicians, analysts and the media, to a great extent liberating people's imagination, amidst the conditions of a general uncertainty about future prospects. One distinct category of such speculations has been the pro...

Evaluation of the Temer Administration improves
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2016

Brazilians’ opinion of the government has improved. The CNI/Ibope poll released today, July 1, shows that “regular” evaluations of Michel Temer’s administration are 17 points higher than Dilma’s. Negative evaluations (“bad/very bad”) have decreased 30 points compared to his predecessor. He still ...

One Million IDs
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Jul 2016

Indonesian politics continued to heat up with the achievement of one million IDs collected by a group called “Teman Ahok”, or “Friends of Ahok” in Bahasa Indonesia, to support the candidacy of “Ahok” (Basuki Tjahaja Purnama) to run for governor of Jakarta. Formally the candidacy required 7.5% of ...

Setting the tone
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jul 2016

Change has come to the Philippines in the person of its 16th president, Rodrigo Duterte, who was sworn into office at noon yesterday. In a carefully crafted inaugural speech - without the usual profanity - and a three-hour cabinet meeting afterwards, President Duterte set the tone for his 6-year ...

​Fewer politics risks, but the coast is still not clear
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Jul 2016 · 1 response

Executive Summary President Erdogan displayed great leadership and pragmatism by acceding to reconciliation with Israel and Russia, both of which might have felt like personal defeats to him. Ankara sources suggest that reconciliation with Egypt, and even Syria might be in the works. At home, MHP...

We’ve Only Just Begun
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 30 Jun 2016

Aligning the best and bravest to lead the enactment of the new peace deal with the FARC will be the Santos administration’s main task for the next two years, in addition to winning the plebiscite. As Brexit just showed, winning a popular vote is harder than it looks. The picture of peace being si...

Some Unpleasant Monetary Arithmetic
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jun 2016 · 1 response

A chronically low saving rate and a large current account deficit are well known features of the Turkish economy. What is somewhat less well-known, or appreciated, is the constraint that this imposes on Turkish central bank’s ability to create lira and achieve ‘financial deepening’ in the absence...

Economics: More Cuts at Last, but More Needed
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jun 2016

In a departure from practices of recent years, in which officials promised hefty spending cuts and then failed to implement them, so far in the current year they have fully met such adjustment targets, and then some. However, a number of doubts remain as to just how sustainable such adjustments ...

Tax amnesty in a volatile environment
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Jun 2016

Congress has finally approved the government’s broad-based legal bill, which incorporates changes in the social security and tax systems. The new law, called the "exceptional voluntary reporting system of tenure of national and foreign currency and other goods, locally and abroad” incorporates t...

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