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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Sudden attacks rattle an inexperienced government
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2018 · 3 responses

For the last 40 years, Ecuador is fortunate to have been virtually untouched by the terrorism plaguing neighbors Colombia and Peru. Now that’s abruptly changed: over the past month, four soldiers were killed, three journalists were kidnapped and executed, and a young tourist couple was kidnapped,...

It turns out 2017 wasn’t so bad after all for South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 20 Apr 2018

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s Growth: GDP growth for 2017 as a whole came in at 1.3%, following the trough of 0.6% in 2016. Seasonally adjusted GDP in the last quarter of 2017 increased by 3.1%, and this was the third consecutive positive quarterly growth rate following the second and...

Higher-than-expected inflation is weakening the support for inflation targeting
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 20 Apr 2018 · 1 response

The rate of inflation in the first quarter of 2018 has deviated significantly from the targets set by the Central Bank and the forecasts of most private consultants, ourselves included. The deviation was particularly large in March, and the online price indicator suggests that it will be even lar...

Notes from Beijing: Tighter control of the banks
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Apr 2018

After a week in Beijing we learned that the shift to new regulatory management, coupled with solidification of Xi Jinping’s power, is resulting in tighter control of China’s banks. There is a systematic effort to reduce reliance on off-balance sheet credit obligations in the banks that is working...

A (tenuous) sign of opposition unity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 19 Apr 2018

On April 17, the National Assembly (AN) approved a criminal investigation against Nicolás Maduro for corruption cases stemming from Odebrecht’s activities in Venezuela, upon request by the Supreme Court of Justice "in exile"[1] and former Attorney General Luisa Ortega Díaz. The decision was appro...

A change in leadership brings calm
PERU · Report · 19 Apr 2018

Amid an untenable political situation, President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski resigned on March 21st, thereby avoiding certain ouster via a painful and politically damaging impeachment process. It would have been impossible for him to stay on another 3 ½ years, given soured relations between the Executi...

​Snap elections: Good for Turkey, good for Erdogan
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Erdogan-Bahceli meeting yielded snap elections, and I really mean “snap” elections, because the proposed date was brought forward from 26 August to 24 June. Early elections are good for Erdogan and Turkey, because both could have suffered a road accident, had they been delayed to 2019. My poll-of...

Fidesz restored two-thirds majority
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Apr 2018

The parliamentary election held on April 8 brought about almost exactly the same result as the previous one did in 2014. Fidesz once again won with a big lead, narrowly restoring its two-thirds constitutional majority, which it lost in an interim election held in early 2015. Participation in the ...

​Crucial summit between Erdogan and Bahceli scheduled for Wednesday
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

I promised to write a market brief about early elections, but instead of responding to Bahceli’s call, Erdogan invited him for a summit at 13:30 on Wednesday. I still believe the leaders will agree on early elections, but want to keep my powder dry until then. I also insist that a decision for sn...

​HEADS UP: Bahceli calls for early elections
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Apr 2018

MHP leader and AKP’s election ally Mr. Bahceli just called for early elections on 26th of August. First reaction from experts:Probably he had consulted AKP before talking to his parliamentary caucus about this. The announcement is market negative but I believe barring major TL-related accidents, ...

Datafolha’s messages and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Apr 2018

Three important issues are on the STF’s agenda: The 1st Group decides whether to accept complaint against Aécio Neves, the court decides on the habeas corpus petition by Paulo Maluf, and Minister Marco Aurélio may bring to the floor the PEN’s request on conviction in the second instance. On Tuesd...

Economics: A competitiveness plan for the campaign
MEXICO · Report · 16 Apr 2018

The country’s anti-monopoly regulatory agency, Cofece, issued a document titled "Economic competition, platform for 2018-2024 growth," which offers an analysis of the current situation in relation to economic competition and an agenda of measures to spur competition as a necessary and indispensab...

Politics: TEPJF-INE dispute rocks contest
MEXICO · Report · 16 Apr 2018

The country’s highest electoral court has overruled the electoral authority in a highly controversial decision with broad implications for the July 1 elections and the eventual presidential transition. In a four-to-three decision the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF) granted Jaime "El Bronco" Ro...

Core inflation reaches 0.8% y/y in March
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Apr 2018

Inflation in March surprises slightly on the upside, core inflation reaches 0.8% y/y. Inflation is likely to reach the lower end of target in 2018, but the BoI is expected to be patient and wait until the inflationary environment reaches 1.5%-2% (mid-2019). Fiscal numbers in Q118 suggest that th...

The deceleration of GDP: Growth of only 2.2% in 2018
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Apr 2018

At the start of the year (see the Weekly Bulletin “Economic Activity Recovering More Strongly”, of February 5th), a large number of indicators portended faster growth of investments. Among these were the decline in the stock of new residential units and the improved credit conditions for business...

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