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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Some Unpleasant Monetary Arithmetic
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jun 2016 · 1 response

A chronically low saving rate and a large current account deficit are well known features of the Turkish economy. What is somewhat less well-known, or appreciated, is the constraint that this imposes on Turkish central bank’s ability to create lira and achieve ‘financial deepening’ in the absence...

Economics: More Cuts at Last, but More Needed
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jun 2016

In a departure from practices of recent years, in which officials promised hefty spending cuts and then failed to implement them, so far in the current year they have fully met such adjustment targets, and then some. However, a number of doubts remain as to just how sustainable such adjustments ...

Tax amnesty in a volatile environment
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Jun 2016

Congress has finally approved the government’s broad-based legal bill, which incorporates changes in the social security and tax systems. The new law, called the "exceptional voluntary reporting system of tenure of national and foreign currency and other goods, locally and abroad” incorporates t...

Glimmers of Recovery
UKRAINE · Forecast · 30 Jun 2016

Ukraine is definitely on recovery path. Macroeconomic statistics are exceeding projections, and political life is finally stabilizing. The business environment has also begun improving, with evidence of some steps taken toward reform. But the recovery should largely be understood as stemming from...

The President’s Very Full Plate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 30 Jun 2016

Economic activity continues to expand rapidly. Monthly growth in April was up 10.1% over April 2015, and up 7.1% January through April. We expect lower figures starting in May, as public spending moderates. Inflation remains low, with annualized inflation at 1.71%, well below the 4% (± 1.0%) tar...

Politics: A New Electoral Outlook for 2018
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jun 2016

GEA-ISA’s newest survey of voter preferences shows significant changes in the political-electoral landscape in the immediate wake of the elections that took place June 5. The public’s evaluation of President Enrique Peña and his administration is the worst seen in his three and a half years in of...

Guatemala: No Surprises
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jun 2016

The IMF mission working on the Article IV report for Guatemala delivered no surprises. The team’s end-of-mission report, published at the end of May, expressed no worries with Guatemala’s short-term economic outlook, but reaffirmed its national structural problems. We agree with those findings. ...

Last month’s data is positive for Chinese prospects
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jun 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Investment growth decelerated sharply in May. This was already pretty clear from the year-to-date numbers released by the NBS, but even more clear once the May data was disaggregated. In May investment grew by around 6%, bring year-to-date growth down...

​This is not terror, it is denial and delusion
TURKEY · In Brief · 29 Jun 2016

With a heavy and bitter sense of déjà vu, once again I write about terror in Turkey. The target is Turkey’s pride international airport. The prime suspect ISIS, casualty count so far: 36 dead and 147 injured. Lessons drawn: Nil. Conclusion: Expect more attacks, a devastation of the tourism indust...

Is Turkey breaking out of her “Splendid Isolation”?
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Jun 2016

In as much as the policy stance is defended in terms of high-flouting ideals and values, Turkey’s foreign policy stance in the region has largely been by necessity “Splendid Isolation” as described by presidential spokesperson Mr. Ibrahim Kalin. From Assad, to Sisi to Putin, Mr. Erdogan managed t...

Week of June 27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jun 2016

​The government will announce a new fiscal target for 2017. The National Monetary Council will set the inflation target for 2018. Data on the public accounts will also be published. On Friday, July 1, the Ministry of Development presents the trade balance for June. Henrique Meirelles meets with S...

BOI: Rate stability with downward growth revision
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Jun 2016

The MPC announced today that policy rates will remain stable in July at a level of 0.1%. The BOI has maintained the present policy rate level since March 2015.

What Will be the Course of Monetary Policy?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jun 2016

When on Tuesday (June 28th) the Central Bank releases the Inflation Report for the second quarter, Ilan Goldfajn has a good opportunity to analyze both the legacies received and the course corrections he intends to impose on monetary policy. The first legacy comes from the extremely expansionary ...

Uncertainties Persist
CHINA · Report · 27 Jun 2016

Uncertainties about growth are lingering. Fixed asset investment rose 7.5% y/y in May, a 4.2 pp plunge from Q1, and only slightly higher than the September nadir. That was due to a major drop in private investment growth, up only 0.9% y/y, a 4.8 pp fall from Q1. Value added for major industrial ...

A roundabout way to measure corporate distress in Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Jun 2016

On Friday, a reader asked me and Dr Ucer about corporate distress in Turkey. I consider this topic of great interest to economic stability and market performance after Brexit in particular, because of my fear that UK and EU origined banks might restrict credit to the periphery including Turkey, w...

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