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No deal on Russian gas shipments via Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2019

Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Brussels to seek and agreement on Russian gas shipments via Ukraine to the EU. The talks ended without an agreement. The EU mediated the talks because Russian gas is key for the EU economy. There will be another meeting in May. The EU would like a 10 year ...

Today's Monetary Council: once again no action, no surprise
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jan 2019

The Monetary Council indeed did nothing today, just as analysts expected. They even missed the opportunity to raise their eyebrows a little bit higher, through injecting a pinch of additional hawkishness into the language of the communiqué. Indeed, the statement they put out after the meeting see...

Growth-stoking investment push is on
CHINA · Report · 29 Jan 2019

GDP rose 6.6% y/y in 2018, down 0.2 pps from 2017. Growth rates declined each quarter throughout the year, falling from 6.8% y/y in Q1 to 6.4% y/y in Q4. Industrial output was up 6.2% y/y, down 0.4 pps from 2017. The manufacturing sector is the main reason for growth slowdown, and growth there f...

Change of government hinges on the military
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Recent moves by Venezuela’s opposition and its international backers may lead to a political transition in the short or medium term. But the Maduro regime might once again muddle through by stalling enough to weaken the opposition’s unity and popularity. It’s still too soon to tell whether regime...

Politics: Justice, security and militarization
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jan 2019

The aspect of the government’s security strategy that has drawn the widest criticism is its plan to establish a militarized National Guard to deal with the country’s security crisis. Those concerns were magnified in recent days when President Andrés Manuel López Obrador reversed course and called...

Maia favored in the Lower House, an uncertain election in the Senate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) will undergo another surgery today, January 28. The Senate MDB meets on Tuesday, January 29, to define the party’s candidate for the speakership in the Senate. Congressmen take office on Friday, February 1, and elect the speakers/presidents of the Lower House and S...

RUSAL and En+ sanctions lifted
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2019

As we forecast last month the US Treasury has lifted sanctions on RUSAL and En+. RUSAL is Russia's biggest aluminum company. RUSAL is partly owned by Oleg Deripaska a Russian-Cypriot billionaire. The UK and EU welcomed the move - Cyprus is an EU member state. The Democrats in the US Congress oppo...

Economics: Price program a page from the past
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jan 2019

The guaranteed price program President López Obrador launched last week for basic grains and fresh milk is one of this administration’s four signature agricultural programs along with others on fertilizer subsidies, non collateralized loans for livestock farmers and one on “production for wellbei...

Venezuela Conference Call: A turning point in the crisis?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jan 2019

Events are unfolding quickly as the international community recognizes an opposition leader as the head of an interim government in Venezuela. Will this power shift be enough to pressure a regime change, and how could it unfold? What would be the impact on the country’s economy and markets in the...

Corruption allegations in the lead-up to the State of the Nation Address 2019
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Jan 2019

When President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered his maiden State of the Nation Address (SONA) in February 2018, he put an emphasis on strong action against corruption by the governing party. On February 7, 2019, he will deliver his second SONA.

Growth appears steady in Q418 at around 3%
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Jan 2019

Several economic indicators point to steady growth in Q418 of 3%, near Israel's long term growth potential. The Bank of Israel sees the economy running at full capacity, which explains the rapid growth in imports. Nevertheless, the emphasis of policy is currently on pushing stronger inflation tow...

The change in the external picture
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jan 2019

The benign picture of “synchronized growth” of the mature and emerging economies is a thing of the past. At present, the prevailing pattern is deceleration of global growth, affecting developed countries like those in Europe as well as developing nations like China. One of the consequences is les...

Preview for tomorrow's Monetary Council: raised eyebrows, some hawkish-style talk but no real action likely
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jan 2019

The Monetary Council's monthly rate-setting meeting is scheduled for tomorrow. Analysts do not expect the Council to make any major step towards policy tightening, except for probably refining the language of its communiqué a bit further in that direction, which the press & news agencies might tr...

Bank of Russia launching fast payment on 28 January
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2019

The Bank of Russia (CBR) is launching a fast payment system for a limited number of clients. People will be able to transfer money by entering the phone number of the beneficiary. Banks involved are VTB, Raiffeisen, Tinkoff, Qiwi, Gazprombank, Rosbank, Alfa Bank, AK Bars and others. Sberbank is n...

Eerily calm before elections
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Our thesis is that so far moderate and unconventional pre-election stimulus failed to attract the unusually large share of undecideds to AKP, but preserved the fragile balance in the currency and bond markets. We pose answers to three known unknows, namely who the undecideds are, how they are lik...

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