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Eid developments in Turkish politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Jul 2016 · 1 response

Nothing ground-breaking transpired in Turkish politics during the 9-day Eid of Ramadan holiday, but the scene is going to heat up very quickly. I thought it would be wise to summarize the recent developments and how they might affect the risk and opportunity prolife of investments. Turkey pushing...

Robust fiscal posture in 1H16
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Jul 2016

Israel has maintained strong fiscal credibility so far this year. The fiscal deficit in the first six months reached 3.4bn ILS, compared to 3.8n this time last year. The 12-month rolling deficit reached 2.1% of GDP, similar to last month, but down from April's 2.2%. We note that the fiscal target...

Eduardo Cunha resigns
BRAZIL POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2016

Earlier this afternoon, Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) resigned from the presidency of the House of Representatives. Below is an analysis of the consequences of his decision. Disbarment The likelihood is that the case against him, which calls for his disbarment as a congressman, will continue to progres...

The cabinet reshuffle
INDIA · In Brief · 07 Jul 2016

Summary The BJP administration has had negligible changes of the cabinet in its first two years. A cabinet reshuffle, announced on Tuesday, reflects the difficulties faced by the administration in its two years. The reshuffle speaks well for the clarity and clout of the prime minister. Changes at...

Monthly Index of Ecopnomic Activity (IMACEC), May 2016
CHILE · In Brief · 06 Jul 2016

In May, the 12-month variation of the IMACEC was 1.8%. This year, May had 3 trading days more than last year, with an incidence of +0.5%. Our reading of the IMACEC is negative. While the 12-month variation increased from the previous month (0.7% in April), the (rolling) quarterly variation of the...

Dicom drives inflation in July
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Jul 2016

The newly created Committees for Supplies and Production (CLAP) are in charge of basic food rationing. They are failing to address shortages: their footprint is too small, the supply of goods to distribute is too small, and they choose the winners on political grounds. The government seeks to imp...

More Cuts at Last, but More Needed, while Teachers' Conflict Takes Government Off Guard
MEXICO · Report · 05 Jul 2016

Indicators released last month revealed that key areas of the economy continued to grow at a surprisingly fast pace through the second quarter of the year, but they also pointed to potential signs of weakness ahead. Internal consumption, which has long defended its perch as the main growth driver...

The Fiscal Adjustment, End of the Recession and Easing of Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 05 Jul 2016

Although the progress of the fiscal adjustment is subject to uncertainties, both because the necessary measures are unpopular and because it is not possible to ignore the political effects of the Lava-Jato investigation, we assume that the government will manage to obtain congressional approval o...

Minutes of the June 2016 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Central Bank of Chile
CHILE · In Brief · 05 Jul 2016

The Minutes reaffirms our perception that the Central Bank is increasingly opening the door to a potential cut of the TPM in the (not so near) future. Only tow Board Members showed certain hawkish bias.In addition, the diagnosis of the economy has become increasingly pessimistic.At the internatio...

Week of July 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jul 2016 · 1 response

The Impeachment Committee hears the defense of removed President Dilma Rousseff. In the Senate, gambling legislation may be voted upon. The CCJ in the House may vote on the appeal presented by removed Federal Representative Eduardo Cunha, in which he questions the Ethics Council decision recommen...

The Economy under Democratic Stress
PERU · Report · 05 Jul 2016

After trouncing Keiko Fujimori by the narrowest of second-round wins, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski will be sworn in as president on July 28th, for a single five-year term. Kuczynski won by just 0.2%, or about 41,000 votes. His triumph over Fujimori, who won twice as many votes as Kuczynski in the first ...

Giving With One Hand, Taking With the Other
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Jul 2016

The economic team led by Meirelles inherited a grave fiscal situation, with an explosive public debt trajectory that cannot be fixed in the short run, even with approval of bold measures, such as the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) that would cap real growth of expenditures. Despite the n...

CPI Jumps Back Up on Food Prices
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jul 2016

Consumer price inflation surprised on the upside this time, coming in at 0.5%, above expectations of a broadly flat reading, which led to a significant jump in the 12-month rate to 7.6% from 6.6%. The full one percentage point increase in the 12-month rate was driven almost entirely by food infla...

Unemployment and Sectorial Data
CHILE · In Brief · 03 Jul 2016

Labor MarketIn the March-May rolling quarter, labor market continued to show signs of deterioration. Unemployment reached 6.8%, its highest level for this rolling quarter since 2011. The 12-month growth of employment went from 1.5% in April to 1.3% in May. In the last year, about 102,000 jobs wer...

Dialogue in limbo and recall referendum underway
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jul 2016 · 1 response

The Venezuelan government is under observation by the Organization of American States. The Permanent Council discussed the report issued by Luis Almagro, Secretary General. Further actions by the OAS are on hold for now, waiting for the Venezuelan government to signal its willingness to actively ...

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