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Peru Conference Call: Continuity or change under a new president?
PERU · Report · 28 Mar 2018

Will PPK's resignation and Martin Vizcarra's accession to the presidency change the perspectives for Peru's needed reforms? What will Vizcarra be able to accomplish during the remainder of his term? Will the country's political instability begin to impact its economic stability? Discussion abo...

Iván Duque: A star on the rise?
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Mar 2018

Senator Iván Duque, the leading presidential candidate and a member of Alvaro Uribe’s Centro Democrático, recently presented his ideas about Colombia’s future in Washington and New York. He spoke eloquently in English, but in bumper-sticker style: his comments on justice, corruption, economics, o...

Growth targeted at about 6.5%
CHINA · Report · 28 Mar 2018

Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced during a March 5th address to the People’s Congress of Beijing that China’s growth target for 2018 would be about 6.5%, the same as in 2017, when growth reached 6.9%. The yuan will be “basically stable” at a reasonable level, Li also predicted. More local gover...

A rate hike in May?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Mar 2018 · 1 response

The signal has been sent. In its press statement following last Thursday’s Monetary Board (MB) decision to keep monetary policy settings on hold, the BSP “noted that inflation expectations have started to rise” and “that economic growth remains solid enough to absorb some policy tightening if war...

Monetary Council meeting: (almost) exactly as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Mar 2018

Today's Monetary Council meeting has brought about to no change in the MNB's interest rates, the access to the 3-month deposit, non-conventional policies and inflation forecast. Regarding the latter, the Bank expects 2.5% average CPI-inflation this year, 2.9% in 2019, and 3% in 2020, also predict...

Economic data is positive but needs to improve, while the presidential race remains between AMLO and Anaya
MEXICO · Report · 27 Mar 2018

Economic results and broader developments were generally positive over the past month. However, while numbers largely remained in the black, they could not hide the fact that growth has continued to slow and in some cases revealed outright contractions, even as inflation has failed to decelerate ...

Housing rental prices expected to accelerate
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Recent economic indicators point to fairly steady growth, and macro fundamentals remain shekel positive with accelerating exports (both services and industrial) supporting the CA surplus. In other economic news, we have revised our inflation forecast upwards for April to 0.4% m/m (from 0.3% m/m) ...

No change is likely at tomorrow's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2018

The market expects absolutely no policy change at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting, either through interest rates or in the area of non-conventional policies. This corresponds to our view, which is based on two circumstances. First, the MNB may not want to take any significant action immediately b...

The presidential election: Temer’s candidacy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Little doubt remains regarding the pre-candidacy of Michel Temer (MDB). In an interview with IstoÉ magazine this week, he said it would be “cowardice” not to run. He also stated that the main reason for his candidacy is so he can defend his legacy. It is still somewhat surprising that he would ru...

Lula’s legal battle and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Expectations are building regarding the appeals of former President Lula in the TRF-4; given the result of the first trial (3-0), the probability is that these appeals will be unanimously rejected. Due to the October elections, the ministerial reshuffle will begin. Two ministers (Healthcare and T...

Global trade and its discontents
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The Trump administration seems serious about implementing trade intervention policies aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, and especially the deficit with China. While part of the bluster may be for negotiation purposes, whatever happens in the nex...

The monetary easing cycle has not yet ended
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Mar 2018

The Central Bank decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the last COPOM meeting, to 6.5%, and made it clear that if the conjuncture continues to evolve as it has recently – low inflation and weak economic recovery – another reduction can be expected at the next meeting. Although th...

Pandora's box opens for markets
TURKEY · Report · 25 Mar 2018 · 1 response

The victory in Afrin has granted Turkey a permanent say in the future of Syria, but it has also confirmed our view of a long-term military and economic investment in the war. Furthermore, additional military campaigns heralded by President Erdogan are likely to raise the wrath of the US and/or As...

Moody's priceless gift to President Ramaphosa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Mar 2018

As I speculated in my last Note a week ago, yesterday Moody's kept South Africa's global credit rating at investment grade, and importantly changed its outlook from "negative" to "stable". I beleive , all considered, this is a jusified assessment. More imprtantly, however, this is a priceless gif...

China’s tariff plan: Xi Jinping plays smart domestic politics
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Mar 2018

Beijing’s response to Trump’s tariffs was an astute brand of politics. Both sides are playing as much to internal politics as to their opposing countries. Trump is shoring up his political base by supporting the steel industry. Xi Jinping is wisely attacking states harboring Trump’s supporters, b...

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