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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A false alarm: speculation on a possible HUXIT
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2016

The UK's recent Brexit vote has apparently sparked an array of speculations by politicians, analysts and the media, to a great extent liberating people's imagination, amidst the conditions of a general uncertainty about future prospects. One distinct category of such speculations has been the pro...

Evaluation of the Temer Administration improves
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2016

Brazilians’ opinion of the government has improved. The CNI/Ibope poll released today, July 1, shows that “regular” evaluations of Michel Temer’s administration are 17 points higher than Dilma’s. Negative evaluations (“bad/very bad”) have decreased 30 points compared to his predecessor. He still ...

One Million IDs
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Jul 2016

Indonesian politics continued to heat up with the achievement of one million IDs collected by a group called “Teman Ahok”, or “Friends of Ahok” in Bahasa Indonesia, to support the candidacy of “Ahok” (Basuki Tjahaja Purnama) to run for governor of Jakarta. Formally the candidacy required 7.5% of ...

Setting the tone
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jul 2016

Change has come to the Philippines in the person of its 16th president, Rodrigo Duterte, who was sworn into office at noon yesterday. In a carefully crafted inaugural speech - without the usual profanity - and a three-hour cabinet meeting afterwards, President Duterte set the tone for his 6-year ...

​Fewer politics risks, but the coast is still not clear
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Jul 2016 · 1 response

Executive Summary President Erdogan displayed great leadership and pragmatism by acceding to reconciliation with Israel and Russia, both of which might have felt like personal defeats to him. Ankara sources suggest that reconciliation with Egypt, and even Syria might be in the works. At home, MHP...

We’ve Only Just Begun
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 30 Jun 2016

Aligning the best and bravest to lead the enactment of the new peace deal with the FARC will be the Santos administration’s main task for the next two years, in addition to winning the plebiscite. As Brexit just showed, winning a popular vote is harder than it looks. The picture of peace being si...

Some Unpleasant Monetary Arithmetic
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jun 2016 · 1 response

A chronically low saving rate and a large current account deficit are well known features of the Turkish economy. What is somewhat less well-known, or appreciated, is the constraint that this imposes on Turkish central bank’s ability to create lira and achieve ‘financial deepening’ in the absence...

Economics: More Cuts at Last, but More Needed
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jun 2016

In a departure from practices of recent years, in which officials promised hefty spending cuts and then failed to implement them, so far in the current year they have fully met such adjustment targets, and then some. However, a number of doubts remain as to just how sustainable such adjustments ...

Tax amnesty in a volatile environment
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Jun 2016

Congress has finally approved the government’s broad-based legal bill, which incorporates changes in the social security and tax systems. The new law, called the "exceptional voluntary reporting system of tenure of national and foreign currency and other goods, locally and abroad” incorporates t...

Glimmers of Recovery
UKRAINE · Forecast · 30 Jun 2016

Ukraine is definitely on recovery path. Macroeconomic statistics are exceeding projections, and political life is finally stabilizing. The business environment has also begun improving, with evidence of some steps taken toward reform. But the recovery should largely be understood as stemming from...

The President’s Very Full Plate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 30 Jun 2016

Economic activity continues to expand rapidly. Monthly growth in April was up 10.1% over April 2015, and up 7.1% January through April. We expect lower figures starting in May, as public spending moderates. Inflation remains low, with annualized inflation at 1.71%, well below the 4% (± 1.0%) tar...

Politics: A New Electoral Outlook for 2018
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jun 2016

GEA-ISA’s newest survey of voter preferences shows significant changes in the political-electoral landscape in the immediate wake of the elections that took place June 5. The public’s evaluation of President Enrique Peña and his administration is the worst seen in his three and a half years in of...

Guatemala: No Surprises
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jun 2016

The IMF mission working on the Article IV report for Guatemala delivered no surprises. The team’s end-of-mission report, published at the end of May, expressed no worries with Guatemala’s short-term economic outlook, but reaffirmed its national structural problems. We agree with those findings. ...

Last month’s data is positive for Chinese prospects
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jun 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Investment growth decelerated sharply in May. This was already pretty clear from the year-to-date numbers released by the NBS, but even more clear once the May data was disaggregated. In May investment grew by around 6%, bring year-to-date growth down...

​This is not terror, it is denial and delusion
TURKEY · In Brief · 29 Jun 2016

With a heavy and bitter sense of déjà vu, once again I write about terror in Turkey. The target is Turkey’s pride international airport. The prime suspect ISIS, casualty count so far: 36 dead and 147 injured. Lessons drawn: Nil. Conclusion: Expect more attacks, a devastation of the tourism indust...

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