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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Campaign with no struggle
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2018

President Putin has put Russia’s relations with the West at the center of his unofficial campaign. He did not participate in any of the debates, and overall, the pre-election landscape looks as if all other participants have been competing against one other, with none of them anywhere near compet...

Election on the agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2018

Politicians continue to take advantage of the window to change parties ahead of the October elections; this window closes on April 7. The Lower House will try to vote on the bill that deals with payroll tax exemptions. Federal judges will go on strike on Thursday, March 15, in defense of their ho...

Confirmed: NFPS deficit reached 3.2% of GDP, 0.9% off-target
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Mar 2018

The Central Bank and the budget office have finally published, and almost simultaneously, the figures of the budget result for 2017. The Central Bank published figures for the Central Government, for the decentralized and autonomous institutions, for the Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) and for...

Forecast for 2018 and 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 12 Mar 2018

In this report we present the projections for the key economic variables in 2018 and 2019. GDP growth should reach 3% in 2018 and again in 2019, and the slow economic recovery will keep inflation below the target, at 3.7% in 2018 and 4.25% in 2019. This year, the SELIC rate will likely fall to 6....

Economics: Trade-war talk rocks Nafta round
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2018

Negotiators did not come away empty handed March 5 from the seventh round of Nafta modernization talks as progress was achieved on numerous fronts, and four out of 30 chapters have been fully exhausted to all three countries' satisfaction. But there was probably less progress than Mexican negotia...

Toll of the government attack on Anaya
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2018 · 1 response

With three weeks to go before presidential candidates can resume campaigning the contest has shifted to prosecutorial offices and dueling scandals. No new significant information has emerged regarding allegations that Ricardo Anaya may have been engaged in a money-laundering scheme, although the ...

Falling inflation and asymmetry of risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Mar 2018

Inflation is continuing to fall, and even if the SELIC rate is cut again by 25 basis points at the next COPOM meeting, taking it to 6.5%, inflation will be well below the target in 2018, and close 2019 at 4.25%. There are risks in both directions, but at this moment the most likely scenario for 2...

Corporate stress, idiosyncratic risks
TURKEY · Report · 11 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Turkish Forces reached the gates of Afrin City by Saturday, where the base-case scenario entails intense street-by-street fighting, which will cost many lives. Ankara is determined to root out PYD-YPG presence from Syria and PKK from Iraq. While such a posture may be deemed necessary to secure th...

Ecuadorians overwhelmed by political scandals
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Mar 2018

A new political scandal emerged last week when a mafia-type phone conversation between the President of the Assembly, Jose Serrano and the former Comptroller General Carlos Polit, now a fugitive from justice in Miami, was made public by the Attorney General, Carlos Vaca. In this conversation, Ser...

China’s work report: Why isn’t China growing faster?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Mar 2018

Last week, China outlined its goals for 2018 in its annual work report issued by Premier Li Keqiang. It’s very ambitious – and there’s a lot that is quite misleading…. The real issue is the promise that fiscal policy “will continue to be proactive.” What does this mean in light of all the talk...

March 11
COLOMBIA · Report · 09 Mar 2018

Some dates mark an epochal change in a process. That is the case of next Sunday, March 11, for the current presidential race. Many things we know about the political landscape until now will be seen under a different light thereafter. The key issues are: i) how many congressmen are elected for ea...

Chile’s New Constitution, but for how long?
CHILE · Report · 08 Mar 2018

​On Tuesday President Michelle Bachelet held a signing ceremony at the Presidential Palace at which she introduced a bill of law aimed at putting in motion a new constitution for Chile. The announcement, made on live TV the previous evening, left many observers surprised – not because Bachelet ha...

Another excellent CPI-number, but also look behind the curtain
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2018

The year-on-year rate of CPI-inflation fell to 1.9% in February, from 2.1% in the previous month. This was marginally below the 2% market consensus and brought the average headline rate for the first two months to slightly below the 2.1% level, which the MNB expected for the average of CPI-inflat...

Inflation doesn’t budge, despite calm in the parallel market
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Price volatility is on the rise. In our view this reflects hyperinflationary dynamics, the irregularity of supplies, seasonality in some agricultural goods, and the influence of the cash crisis on prices. The fees associated with the use of cash in payments have risen as the cash shortage intensi...

MPC: 'Stop, or I'll Say Stop Again'
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2018

In line with the consensus, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) did not change any of the short-term interest rates at today’s meeting, keeping the Late Liquidity Window lending rate at 12.75%, one-week repo rate at 8.0%, and the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respecti...

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