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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economy underperforms expectations in first quarter
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Apr 2016

In the first quarter, the Argentine economy deviated from our expectations in three areas: inflation, growth, and foreign trade. Even though the market exchange rate is still within the range we had predicted, examining the functioning of the free floating foreign exchange market after the elimi...

Maduro retakes the offensive
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Apr 2016

President Maduro is back on the offensive in hopes of lasting out its term (till 2019). It seeks to convey that its power is well consolidated and that it will survive any attempt to end its administration before the end of its constitutionally mandated term, and uses the Supreme Tribunal of Just...

Current Government and Private Investment in the South African Economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Apr 2016

​South Africa needs more investment spending than is currently taking place in order for the economy to grow at a rate that is necessary to pull millions of people out of poverty, generate employment opportunities and address the pressing challenge of high income inequality. Of more pressing curr...

IMF in Ecuador's Sight
ECUADOR · In Brief · 28 Apr 2016

The earthquake of last April 16, has forced the government to seek help from the IMF. Minister of Finance Fausto Herrero confirmed he is working with multilateral to set a fast loan agreement to cover part of the losses from the natural disaster. He insisted, however, that the loan must come "wit...

Wages fall behind inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2016

​This year we see four minimum wage increases, driven by inflation and politics. Real wages will nevertheless plunge. The first hike this year came in March, when the minimum wage rose by 20 percent and the food bonus rose by 233 percent. We expect the next decree to be approved in coming days...

Signs of Rebound
CHINA · Report · 28 Apr 2016

GDP rose 6.7% y/y in Q1. Although that is still slower than in Q4 2015, improved main indicators for growth bolster our confidence in future growth. Industrial output rose 6.8% y/y in March, up 0.7 pps from the previous quarter. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture rose 10.7% y/y in Q1, ...

Terror, again
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2016

Turkey faced terror once again, this time in nation’s automotive capital Bursa, in front of the Historic Ulu Mosque. A woman believed to be affiliated with ISIS blew herself up, injuring 13 citizens. Eyewitness accounts have it that she stumbled in the last second, dropping a plastic bag, where s...

New Cabinet Increases Gas Prices in Line with the IMF Demand
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Apr 2016

Starting May 1st the Cabinet increases gas prices for households by more than 60%. This decision definitely will be welcomed by the IMF. This gas prices’ increase was scheduled for April but Arseniy Yatsenyuk canceled this decision before his resignation leaving some dirty work for his successor....

Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Apr 2016

More people now believe that the presidency is his to lose. Latest polls show the tough-talking mayor from the south pulling further away from the pack, scoring 9 to 12 points ahead of the second-ranked. By itself, the emergence of a frontrunner is a good thing as it removes temptations to cheat ...

Santos’ New Cabinet
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Apr 2016

After a lot of speculation, and a long wait for a cabinet reshuffle, yesterday President Santos announced the new members of what he called the “Cabinet for Peace”. However it has already been dubbed as the cabinet for the plebiscite, as its main purpose will be to gather the votes for approval o...

Economics: The Economic Toll of Budget Cuts
MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2016

The reductions in public spending that have been concurrently announced by the Ministry of Finance have always been deepest on the level of investment and only marginal in the case of current spending. Those announced for 2016 were no exception, with much of the cuts taking the form of the postpo...

Politics: President’s Timid Proposal on Cannabis
MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2016

Last Wednesday, two days after his speech before the U.N. General Assembly Special Session on Drugs, President Enrique Peña Nieto announced he was sending Congress new legislation based on proposals made during five forums the federal government organized in recent months. There are numerous impl...

El Salvador: Still Awaiting Economic Dynamism
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Apr 2016

El Salvador seems destined to keep living with low economic dynamism. Despite the opportunities generated by a positive international environment, GDP growth is likely to continue running at 2%-2.5% y/y. As anticipated after 10 months in 2015 with negative inflation rates, deflationary risks are ...

The central bank’s gold reserves
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Apr 2016

A review of the 31 December 2015 balance sheet of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) and the Notes to the Second Semester 2015 Financial Statements leads us to conclude that the central bank’s gross reserves appropriately record the effect of the 2015 gold swaps but net reserves (reserve assets ...

Impeachment Committee: The rapporteur will present his report on May 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2016

The president of the Impeachment Committee in the Senate, Raimundo Lira (PMDB-PB), decided that the report to be written by the rapporteur, Antonio Anastasia (PSDB-MG), will be presented on May 4. The committee will hear the authors of the impeachment request against the president on April 28 (Mi...

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