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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

What’s in Our Minds?
TURKEY · Report · 25 Feb 2018

This month’s report arrives in your inboxes in a Q&A format, thanks to several meetings with groups of investors and experts that allowed us to focus on the FAQ, and areas we consider important yet have been missing from the radar. In politics, Turkish Forces and allies are rapidly moving towa...

High expectations, but beware of the hurricane
CHILE · Report · 23 Feb 2018

According to the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC), the Chilean economy expanded by a meager 1.6% in 2017. Nevertheless, the fourth quarter of last year marked a turning point. According to the Central Bank, the leading sectors were once again commerce and services, coherent with the st...

COSTA RICA: Uncertainty Is the flavor of the day
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Feb 2018 · 1 response

Costa Rica’s political environment looks unsatisfactory, a situation that affects our short-term economic outlook. Right now, uncertainty is the flavor of the day. The results of the February 4th presidential and congressional elections didn’t curb either uncertainty or negative expectations. In ...

External accounts are balancing
CHINA · Report · 23 Feb 2018

The ex-factory price index of industrial products was up 4.3% y/y in January, down 1.6 pps from Q4 2017. PPI was up 5.2% y/y, down 1.9 pps. Given tightening monetary policy, we expect producer prices will continue their downward trend in 2018. Due to the Spring Festival – the Chinese New Year -- ...

Is Xi Jinping in control of the Chinese economy?
CHINA ADVISORY · Presentation · 20 Feb 2018

Xi Jinping is both Chairman and CEO of China, which has led to ineffective policy making: no one is “driving” supply side reform. But while reform has been limited, there are signs of risk reduction in the financial sector, and local governments are providing some solutions.

China buys the world: The domestic politics of China’s foreign direct investment
CHINA ADVISORY · Presentation · 20 Feb 2018

There is a suspicion that there is a collective brain that directs Chinese companies’ actions, and that recent outbound acquisitions have been directed by pervasive government planning. However, China’s ambitions are complex, and there is no invisible hand. State and market capital will continue ...

Politics: Mobs targeting local politicians
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2018

With roughly four and a half months to go before Election Day 2018, violence against politicians is reaching unprecedented levels; just since September 19 local politicians including current and former municipal presidents, and those looking to run for such offices, have been murdered. The fact t...

Economics: Unpopular reform a major success
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2018

Round 2, Phase 4 of tenders provided the most eloquent example to date of just how successful Mexico's 2014 energy reform is proving to be. The largest single group of exploration and production blocks that Mexican regulators have auctioned to date drew an unprecedented level of participation fro...

President Ramaphosa’s fiscal headache or a chance to start proving himself...?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Feb 2018 · 1 response

New South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has inherited a fiscus that is in a dire state. For instance, National Treasury announced a projected tax revenue to fall short of the 2017 Budget estimate by R50.8 billion (during MTBPS 2017), the largest downward revision since the 2009 recession. Eve...

​Rumors of Kurds ceding Afrin to Assad creates new scenarios for Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Feb 2018

Turkey’s Syria adventure is one of the most complicated stories ever to be told by Yours Truly, wherein the subtext changes daily. I write this note in the hourly hours of Tuesday, 20th of February, when several reports suggest Syrian Kurds (PYD-YPG, allied with PKK) and President Assad had reach...

Week of February 19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Feb 2018

This week Congress will focus on the Lower House and Senate votes on the federal public security intervention in the State of Rio de Janeiro. Former president Lula should release a Letter to the Brazilian People at a PT event on Monday (19). Tuesday (20) is the last day for his lawyers to prese...

The signals from the Central Bank: What can be expected?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Feb 2018

In the communiqué of the decision that lowered the SELIC rate to 6.75%, the Central Bank indicated a high probability that the easing cycle was over, but the minutes left the door open to one more cut. More important than discussing whether the cycle will end at 6.75% or 6.5%, however, is recogni...

It will be difficult to stop Fidesz in April
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2018

In January, Fidesz continued its strengthening trend in opinion polls, returning after three and a half years to the high level of support it enjoyed around the latest local government election in October 2014. Fidesz is quite clearly set now to win a comfortable constitutional majority at the Ap...

U.S. deal hopes, stark IMF warnings
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2018

The U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson left Turkey with promises of empathy, cooperation and compromise, but cynicism runs high in Ankara. America’s ability to persuade Kurds to withdraw from Syrian city Manbij to the eastern shore of Euphrates Rivers is seen as the litmus test of credibility ...

President Ramaphosa ushers a new era in South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 16 Feb 2018

A few minutes ago,President Ramaphosa delivered his first State of Nation Address (SONA), emphasizing the dawn of a new era, an era of hope and reconstrution. He committed himself and his incoming government to ethical leadership, a departure from his predecessor, and reversion to the type of lea...

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