GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Executive Summary President Cristina Kirchner’s chances of running for a third consecutive termare now nil, after midterm elections October 27th cut her party’s representation in Congress to 32%, from 54% in 2011. The political cycle of Kirchnerism is also over: the new Congress won’t pass the re...

Political Insights: Week of November 4

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2013

A busy week in Congress: In the House, the rapporteur of the Mining Code may present his report. On the House floor, the new Civil Process Code may be voted upon. In the Senate, two important Constitutional amendment proposals are on the agenda: the Compulsory Budget and the amendment to institut...

Weekly Tracker: November 3-9

TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2013

Executive Summary March local election campaign started with headscarves in parliament and Mr. Sarigul, the popular mayor of Istanbul’s Sisli district, joining the CHP ranks. There is no more room for reforms until after the elections. We begin by outlining our preliminary predictions for the loc...

Inflation Report: Nothing Surprising

TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Oct 2013

As we were tied up at the economic congress in Izmir (apologies!), we couldn't hear Governor Basci speak today, but there is little surprising in what we read and heard so far. Inflation yearend estimate (midpoint) is now 6.8%, which we knew from the MTP already, while Governor Basci has apparen...

Entering a New Cycle?

CHILE · Report · 31 Oct 2013

Executive Summary After 20 months with no change in the monetary policy rate, the Central Bank decided it was time to deliver a cut. The Board of the Central Bank of Chile decided in October to reduce the monetary policy rate from 5.00% to 4.75%. The timing of the move came as a surprise. The exp...

Rebound Promises Improvement

INDONESIA · Report · 31 Oct 2013

Executive Summary Q3 economic performance maintained its dynamism, according to corporate analyses released so far. Several of these reports chronicle continuing growth, bolstered by spending linked to the Ramadan celebrations (Ramadan shifts from year to year, and this year ran from July 8-Au...

Spending Restraint?

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Oct 2013

Growth in government spending decelerated further in September in what may be seen as an immediate impact of the still unfolding pork barrel (PDAF) scandal as agencies have likely become extra cautious in releasing funds for projects. Data released today showed government non-interest expenditur...

AMLO Protests Lose Steam

MEXICO · In Brief · 30 Oct 2013

The former presidential candidate of the Left and the PRD, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has found in the opposition to the Energy Reform a new political opportunity, but it is losing steam rapidly as a source of popularity and public relevance. With a strategy based on public meetings, and radio a...

Turning Point On Growth?

PERU · Report · 30 Oct 2013

Executive Summary Scandal upon scandal seems to be erupting, crowding out potential debates over substantive political issues. First, there’s the string of corruption cases in Congress—the latest focused on a politician discovered paying himself more than half the congressional funds meant for hi...

Unemployment Rate Eases on Rising Absorption Rate

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Oct 2013

According to Statistics South Africa, the Q3 2013 unemployment rate of 24.7% is 0.9 percentage points lower than the 25.6% recorded in Q2 2013 (see Graph 1 below). This was mainly driven by an increase in the number of employed persons (2.2% q/q) coupled with a decrease in the number of unemploye...

Scaling Back Revenues

MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2013

Executive Summary Banco de México announced Friday that it was lowering its target interbank lending rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 3.50%. The move, which was widely expected, was the central bank’s third rate cut year to date. In the statement accompanying the rate announcement, Banco de ...

Euro-integration Stories

UKRAINE · Report · 29 Oct 2013

Executive Summary Every other burning issue seems forgotten, as the whole country waits to see whether Ukraine and the EU will sign the Association Agreement. Businesses are anticipating positive news. The FX market has calmed, since officials have promised lots of foreign cash after the signing....

Argentina 2013 Midterm Election Readings

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Oct 2013 · 1 response

When analyzing the preliminary outcome of yesterday’s mid-term elections in Argentina one should focus on two main aspects.1) The government new power balance in the Congress2) The outlook for the 2015 presidential candidates. With respect to the first point: despite a relatively mediocre electo...

Midterm Election Readings

ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Oct 2013

As we mentioned in the Global Source Partner Direct webpage, when analyzing the preliminary outcome of yesterday’s mid-term elections in Argentina one should primarily focus on two main aspects. The government new power balance in the CongressThe outlook for the 2015 presidential candidates With ...

Dominican Rep Issues USD 500 Millions in Sovereign Bonds

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 28 Oct 2013

Last week, the Government of the Dominican Republic issued USD 500 in Sovereign Bonds at a 6.6% interest rate. Citibank was in charge of the operation. Initial offers amounted to USD 1,750 millions, 3.5 times the amount offered. According to the Ministerio de Hacienda, the amount issued correspon...