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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Polls reveal the strength of Lula and Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2018

The presidential polls released yesterday (Ibope and CNT/MDA) show that Lula (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) are well positioned in the race. Even if his candidacy is barred by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the former president has enough political capital (support from one third of the e...

From bad to worse
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Aug 2018

The plan Maduro unveiled on 17 August 2018 aims at coping with the risks of social outbreak and blind violence sparked by hyperinflation and recession. Yet, it doesn’t address the root of the problems and rather raises the specter of ungovernability. Local industry may get further hurt along the ...

Economics: A legacy of debt and narrow public finance margins
MEXICO · Report · 20 Aug 2018

Analysts have been concerned for some time about the direction of public finance in Mexico, but such considerations have been largely overshadowed by the headline-grabbing 2018 presidential campaign and its results, including the presidential transition process, the uncertainty surrounding Nafta ...

Electoral race Q&A and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2018

The second week of electoral campaigning begins. Several national and state-level polls will be released in the coming days. Presidential candidates will take part in a debate on TV Record. Wednesday is the deadline for the presentation of requests to contest the validity of candidacies. The Fede...

Gloomy outlook for the public sector finances
PANAMA · In Brief · 20 Aug 2018

The official Ministry of Finance’s (MEF) report on Non-Financial Public Sector performance through June showed dismal numbers. Total revenues grew 0.8 percent in the first six months: Central Government revenues didn’t increase even in nominal terms and only Social Security revenues performed rea...

Politics: AMLO’s first post-election setback
MEXICO · Report · 20 Aug 2018

Despite the initial blowback that greeted Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s vague musings during the campaign about how amnesty and forgiveness would play a role in trying to overcome the violence inflicted by criminal organizations, he proved reluctant to clear up the confusion about just how that p...

China’s policy backpedaling
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Aug 2018

China’s banking regulator Saturday issued a strong notice proposing a heightened stimulus for the economy. This notice from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) was unusual for several reasons: • First, it was more aggressive than previous government statements; • Secon...

The frustrating behavior of the labor market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Aug 2018

Employment growth is fundamental to accelerate a cyclical recovery, but unfortunately this is not happening in Brazil. The unemployment rate has only fallen by 0.7 percentage point since the end of the recession, from 13.0% to 12.3%. And more careful analysis of the job market’s behavior reveals ...

Housing rental price moderation is supportive of low inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Aug 2018

July's CPI surprised on the downside due to moderating housing rental prices. With core inflation hovering at around 1.0% y/y in coming months, we do not envision a rate hike before Q119. Zoom In: Underlying GDP growth in Q218 is within the 2.5-3.0% range, a rate likely to be maintained in ...

Political roundup
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2018

Trump met President Putin in Helsinki on 16 July. The meeting was notable for the good chemistry between the two and there appeared to be no disagreements. At the press conference they referred elliptically to a behind-closed-doors agreement on Syria. This could guarantee security for Israel as T...

An interest rate hike by ÁKK - outsourcing monetary policy
HUNGARY · Report · 16 Aug 2018

Inflation maintained its ascending trend in July, moving up a bit faster than expected. Fuel prices still played an important role, but there were also non-seasonal increases in the area of industrial products, on rising producer price inflation in that sector. Unlike in previous months, all core...

Lula’s candidacy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2018

​Regarding the registration of Lula’s candidacy with the Superior Electoral Court, it is highly unlikely that his candidacy will be accepted by the top electoral court in Brazil. Lula’s conviction by a higher court puts him in the crosshairs of the Clean Slate Law, and the judges of the electoral...

Turkey Conference Call: Crisis in Turkey - How does it end?
TURKEY · Report · 15 Aug 2018

How much more can the crisis between TURKEY and the US deepen? Is there a way out for Turkey? What are the implications for contagion?​

The South African exchange rate’s tumultuous ride
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 15 Aug 2018 · 1 response

The rand has been taking a hammering, particularly since the past week, and has also been very volatile of late. The South African exchange rate had appreciated significantly since around the time when the now-President Ramaphosa first claimed victory to become the leader of the governing ANC, an...

Friendless
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2018

The first bilateral meeting between Putin and Trump (and their third meeting in total) brought no tangible results, as the US President faced pressure from the Congress, and the Russian President had no intention of making any unilateral friendly steps. Ahead of the upcoming US Congressional elec...

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