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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

H1 marked by very strong growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 07 Aug 2018

Preliminary data from the Central Bank indicates that in H1 2018 economic activity expanded by 6.7% year over year. In Q1, GDP growth measured by the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE) was 5.4%, and in Q2 it was 7.1%, an extraordinary and surprising expansion. More modest growth had be...

Tariff wars are likely to be disinflationary
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Aug 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Contrary to what many seem to believe, tariffs, even if they are much more widely implemented in the US, China, and elsewhere, are not likely to exacerbate inflationary pressures. On the contrary, they are more likely to be disinflationary because t...

Inflation rises to 5.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Aug 2018

July inflation rate reached 5.7%, near the upper end of the forecast ranges of the BSP (5.1-5.8%) and private analysts (5.4-5.8%); rising as well from the surprisingly high 5.2% print in June. The higher headline rate may be traced largely to higher prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages and ...

Industrial growth decelerates in tandem with the Euro Area
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Aug 2018

Industrial output fell 1.2% mom on sda basis in June. This marks a slowdown of yoy growth to 3.2%, from 3.7% in the previous month. In terms of quarterly results, output growth decelerated to 3.3% yoy in Q2, from 4.4% in Q1 and 5.9% in Q4 2017.Industrial output growth and PMI Sources: KSH, MLKBT,...

Post-convention views and the balance of the electoral race
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2018

The presidential candidates face each other in the first debate on TV Bandeirantes, this Thursday. The STF may discuss the freedom and ineligibility of former President Lula. Congress holds a “concentrated effort”. This week’s Talking Points • Post-convention views • The balance of the elect...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2018

As expected, the electoral scenario has been gaining clearer outlines as the deadline for officially registering candidacies approaches. As things stand now, the chances have decreased of two candidates from opposite extremes of the political spectrum reaching the second round, allaying the fears...

​One swallow does not make a summer
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 06 Aug 2018

The National Assembly Decree repealing the Law on Illicit Foreign Currency Transactions was published in Official Gazette No. 41,452 dated 2 August 2018. Aside from the legal issues arising from the fact that the Constituent Assembly has no power to repeal laws, this is the most relevant measure ...

Economics: AMLO's abstruse energy plans
MEXICO · Report · 06 Aug 2018

Since his election just over a month ago, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has used a steady deluge of policy announcements, transition initiatives and personnel picks for his incoming administration to keep the nation focused on his person and agenda. Last Wednesday he zeroed in on the energy sector ...

Monitoring the economic activity trend
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2018

Since the end of the truckers’ strike, the signals emitted by the high-frequency economic activity indicators have been buried in a veritable avalanche of noise, hampering identification of the economic recovery trend. Our evaluation, based on the most recent information, is that recovery continu...

Politics: Political control trumps security
MEXICO · Report · 06 Aug 2018

Society’s growing alienation from all manner of governmental and political institutions is a major factor at the heart of the broader political crisis that paved the way for López Obrador’s overwhelming electoral victory July 1, a crisis greatly deepened by the past few years of corruption scanda...

Credit upgrade likely to be positive for markets/shekel this week
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Aug 2018

Israel's credit upgrade to AA- (S&P) will support some modest shekel appreciation and lower bond yields in the short run, but this is likely to be temporary. We see some slack in the labor market, with the number of unemployed moving higher and job vacancies lower. The bigger driver of inflation ...

Growth in spite of trade war
CHINA · Forecast · 06 Aug 2018

GDP was up 6.8% y/y in H1, the same rate as in H2 2017. Industrial output was up 6.7% y/y, up 0.4 pps, while investment was up 6% -- down 2.6 pps, and up only 0.3% y/y in real terms, down 3.5 pps from H1 2017. The major drop in state investment is likely the main cause for the slowdown. Possibly ...

​Do or die weeks for Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2018

Opposing reports suggest that either a compromise has been reached to resolve the “cleric crisis” between Turkey and US, or new sanctions are underway. Either way, I think these are “do or die “ weeks for Ankara, which is not only in trouble with US, but also struggling to put together a fiscal p...

Outlook 2018-2019: No volte-face
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 03 Aug 2018 · 1 response

Living conditions in Venezuela have been crushed by hyperinflation and the collapse of basic public services. In our updated 2018–2019 outlook, things are projected to worsen. GDP falls by a third over two years. Inflation exceeds 2 million percent. Real wages and interest rates plunge. Oil p...

China’s confused policymaking: return to relaxed monetary policy as leadership conflicts highlight the slowing economy and the trade war
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Aug 2018

China’s leadership is showing signs of strain – not just in its reaction to Washington, but in its overall economic policymaking. A series of outspoken statements has displayed a highly unusual amount of public disagreement in Beijing. This suggests both deepening conflict over economic policy, a...

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