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Federal Police Operation targets Lula and adds fuel to the crisis
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2016

Former President Lula was targeted, this Friday, in the 24th Phase of the Lava-Jato Operation (Alethea). The consequences are very serious for the PT and, especially, for the government. The treasurer of President Dilma Rousseff’s campaign in 2010, José Di Fillippi, was also targeted.

New Federal Police Operation targets Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2016

The Federal Police (PF) is currently at the home of former President Lula. This is the 24th chapter of the Lava-Jato Operation. The PF is also at the house of Lula’s son, as well as in the Lula Institute, the farm in Atibaia and the apartment in Guarujá, both allegedly his. Lula is also the ta...

​Erdogan’s proposals and HDP immunities
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2016

I’ve received two questions from a reader, the answers to which might be of interest to my readers. These are the questions: 1) While I have a lot of sympathy with your view that Erdogan/AKP will try to push for the exec presidency at some points this year, the presidential spokesman commented la...

Delcídio’s plea bargain heats up impeachment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Mar 2016

Delcídio do Amaral is, without a doubt, one of the best positioned senators in Congress. He has always had good transit with different groups and above-average political knowledge in the federal sphere. The fact that Delcídio signed a plea bargain deal is the precursor to an extraordinary poli...

Few Glimmers of Hope
MEXICO · Report · 03 Mar 2016

Economic activity has been generally disappointing over the past month. There were some bright spots, especially in consumption of goods and services, as Antad-affiliated retailers reported robust sales growth (up a real 8.8% y/y in January), while car manufacturers reported their best sales for ...

Inflation: Back to End-December Level
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2016

Consumer prices were broadly unchanged in February, compared with expectations of about a 0.3% increase, thanks mainly to the benign behavior of food prices. Given last year’s elevated base, the 12-month CPI-inflation dropped to 8.8% in February, down from 9.6% in January, basically back to where...

Referendum and early elections scenarios—once again
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Mar 2016 · 1 response

Once again, I’m taking the opportunity to use questions posed by a reader to address issues which might interest my entire audience. These are the questions: “what is the earliest a referendum could take place? how would this unveil? what are the legalistic implications of a referendum and over w...

​Economic Heritage
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 02 Mar 2016

Both, Prat Gasy’s press conference regarding the pre-agreement with Holdouts (Monday afternoon) and president Macri’s address to the nation during the inauguration of the current congress session (yesterday) had one aspect in common: a strong and direct criticism regarding the economic heritage t...

A Corruption Deadlock
UKRAINE · Forecast · 02 Mar 2016 · 1 response

A political scandal, in which Minister of Economy Aivaras Abromavicius blamed cronies of President Poroshenko for corruption, is seizing public attention. The scandal made public an issue already disturbing Western donors: the “undercover” reforms the friends of the president and prime minister h...

Low Growth Continues into the Fourth Quarter of 2015
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Mar 2016

Official growth figures released by Statistics South Africa show that after having increased by a measly 0.7% during the third quarter of 2015, quarter-on-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices went up by another paltry amount of 0.6% during the fourth quarter of 2015. Further...

Bracing for Downturn
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 29 Feb 2016

The economy has fared relatively well, given the bleak global economic outlook and oil price shock. Yet, everything that could go wrong did, and oil prices have now reached unimaginable lows. This, paired with weak external growth, has led us to revise our 2016 GDP growth forecast downward, to 2....

Indian budget announcement
INDIA · Report · 29 Feb 2016

Three important problems framed yesterday's budget speech. The first was the deepening recession. The second was the banking crisis. The third was the political difficulties that have increasingly beset the BJP. The outcome we got yesterday perhaps reflect a mix of these compulsions. While the...

Press conference regarding debt restructuring
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Feb 2016

Just in time ahead of tomorrow’s opening session of the Congress, Finance Minister Alfonso Prat-Gay and Finance Secretary Luis Caputo will give a press conference today to announce the agreement reached with Holdouts. The conference will happen today at 6pm Buenos Aires time (4pm NYC or 9pm Londo...

Week of February 29
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Feb 2016

The Federal Supreme Court (STF) will decide if it will accept the accusation against the president of the House, Eduardo Cunha. The decision could increase pressure for his removal. In the economy, we highlight the Central Bank’s decision on interest rates and the 2015 GDP figures, which will be ...

Forces Behind the Depreciation of the Real
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Feb 2016

Executive Summary: It is very hard to gauge the tendency of the exchange rate, but the task is easier when the economy is plagued by large risks. In the Brazilian case a close correlation exists between the exchange rate and two risk measures: the CDS quotations and the EMBI-Brazil. In the pas...