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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Looking into the $909 million decline in foreign reserves on 10/26
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Nov 2016

The $909 million decline in BCV’s foreign reserves on Wednesday, October 26 deserves a comment. We have reason to believe the money went to help Pdvsa cover its 31 October/2 November debt service payments and not to Gold Reserve, as originally thought. Gold Reserve informed in a 4 November press ...

The Frustrated Bet on Fast Return to Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Nov 2016

The most recent data on economic activity indicate GDP contracted again in the third quarter. Due to the shrinkage of world trade and weak commodity prices, there is no hope for exports to act as a force to drive recovery. Nor can this be expected from household consumption, which continues being...

Wealth Shock
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Nov 2016

New electronic statements, or “e-declarations,” revealing the impressive wealth amassed by Ukraine’s politicians and civil servants dominated the headlines in October. Some observers were shocked to see the millions of dollars of previously opaque wealth reported publicly for the first time. The ...

Wage increases: dangerous game
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Nov 2016

This year’s fourth minimum wage increase came into effect on 1 November. The increase itself is not a surprise; in fact, we anticipated it in our forecasts. But its intensity and features are surprising, making it expensive and dangerous. It’s driven by politics and will fuel inflation and recess...

Out of junk: another upgrade, from Moody's this time
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2016

As the third and last one of the Big Three credit rating agencies, Moody's moved Hungary up to investment grade, specifically to Baa3/Stable from the so far held Ba1/Positive rating, for the country's long term sovereign FX debt. Explaining the move, the agency brought up Hungary's recent good gr...

Troubling Times
TURKEY · Forecast · 04 Nov 2016

These are unprecedented times for Turkey, with each passing day bringing new uncertainties and troubling developments. The environment makes forecasting a fool’s errand, but we nevertheless try to take stock, and share some -- admittedly preliminary -- thoughts on the macroeconomics of 2017. T...

If Only Lira Calmed Down...
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2016

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside again in October, coming in at 1.4%, m/m, lower than the consensus expectation of a 1.7% increase. (Our forecast was slightly higher, at 1.8%). The 12-month CPI-rate hence eased slightly further to 7.2% in October from 7.3% in September, while pr...

Growth Drivers Soften, While Loyalty Trumps Credibility in Cabinet Shift
MEXICO · Report · 02 Nov 2016

Evidence that growth drivers continued to weaken was apparent in indicators published during October, beginning with last week’s Global Index of Economic Activity (IGAE), which showed the economy slipping at a real -0.1% rate in August 2016 compared to July of this year, according to seasonally a...

Minefield
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Nov 2016 · 1 response

Open confrontation in Venezuela has led to dialogue and a 10-day truce before round two of talks, though not without some hairline fractures within the opposition coalition—some parties opted out, others merely expressed dissent, and no top party leaders attended. Thanks to the pressure it was...

President Zuma vs Assembly of People of South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 02 Nov 2016

Today may well mark a turning point in the evolving Constitutional Democracy in South Africa. As I predicted over the past two days, this week is pregnant with political economy surprises....The long-awaited Public Protector's Report on State Capture was released by the order of the High Court af...

Does corruption help or hurt the economy?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Nov 2016

This is an article from O Estado written by Maria Cristina Pinotti​. Here and there arguments arise that the fight against corruption ignores the way the economy works in the “real world”. After all, bribes to speed up authorizations for investments should be favorable to growth. The aim here is...

President Zuma is running out of options
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 01 Nov 2016

Yesterday was a bad day for President Zuma. I was asked : what is the probability that he would be out of office by December 2017? My response is as follows:The chances have never been so good. President Zuma is at his weakest point, politically speaking. Yesterday, one of the largest public sect...

​Black Swans flocking to Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Nov 2016

Turkish markets tanked today, as news agencies headlined mobilization of armored forces at the Iraqi border. This is not the only risk bugging the domestic investor. It is as if one can hear the flapping of wings by a flock of Black Swans. Turkey is not for the faint hearted. It is not easy to pr...

A Transformed Export Structure
CHINA · Report · 01 Nov 2016

Growth seems very stable, if low, with GDP up 6.7% y/y in Q3, the same rate as in Q1 and Q2. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, likewise flat on Q2, and up 0.2 pps from Q3 2015. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture rose 7% y/y, down 1.2 pps from Q2.Retail sales of social consumption good...

Indonesia: Promotion Drive for Tourism
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Nov 2016

In the past few months, the Indonesian government has intensified its drive to promote tourism. Increasingly it believes that aside from sectors such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, tourism is the next promising sector to which it should give priority. There are 10 new tourist destinations...

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