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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Culmination of the Kremlin’s staging
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Feb 2022

We are approaching the culmination of the staging with Russian troops’ deployment. Russians have started evacuating civilians from occupied territories of Donbass but ordered all men of military age to stay in place. Also Russians are bringing heavy armor closer to the frontlines in Donbas. These...

Beyond the Russian threat, monetary tapering looms
UKRAINE · Report · 18 Feb 2022

The threat of a Russian invasion has dominated the headlines for several months now. Ukraine still sees Russia deploying more troops and combat support elements on its border as a big bargaining game, and Ukrainian officials do not expect Russia to undertake serious military action. However, the ...

Does Kremlin start a face-saving withdrawal?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Feb 2022

On February 15 Russian Parliament addressed Vladimir Putin with a request to recognize occupied territories of Ukraine (Donbas and Luhansk) as independent states. This step might be a first move for a face-saving de-escalation of current tension. After raising the stakes so high Vladimir Putin co...

Funny meme on Russian invasion
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Feb 2022

I know our readers appreciate "anecdotal evidence". I think the meme below depicts the best how Ukrainians are reacting to all the news about a potential Russian offensive. Came across this picture on social nets and think it worth sharing. In some cases one funny picture gives more info than doz...

Consumer inflation spikes 1.3% m/m in January, above expectations
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

Consumer inflation was reported +1.3% m/m or +10.0% y/y, which is almost twice faster than we expected for January. Twice-stronger food prices (+2.5% m/m in January vs. +1.2% m/m we estimated) on the back of an upsurge in prices for vegetables (+20.5% m/m) was the main reason for that strong cons...

GDP grew 3.3% in 2021, flash estimate
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Feb 2022

UkrStat, the State Statistics Office, reported 5.9% GDP growth in 4Q 2021. This means that GDP grew 3.3% y/y for the full-year 2021. No details are available so far on the contributors of growth but we know for sure that agro-production was the main driver of GDP jump in the last quarter of the y...

Monetary Policy Committee minutes: the NBU planned to hike policy rate by 2ppt but calmed down eventually
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jan 2022

The minutes of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting revealed a very interesting point. A majority of MPC members supported the idea to hike the policy rate by 2 ppts up to 11% already in January. One member even claimed that a 12% policy rate is a proper level for current uncertainty. The "Rus...

Notes from the frontline: what the Russia tension looks like from Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jan 2022

It looks like a potential Russian offensive is creating more nervousness in Western media than here in Ukraine. For Ukrainians a Russian invasion already started eight years ago and further attempts to occupy more territories of Ukraine or install a puppet regime by force have been just a matter ...

The NBU hiked the policy rate by 1.0 ppt up to 10.0% amid Russian risks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Jan 2022

The NBU Board increased the policy rate by 1.0 ppt up to 10.0% today. Consensus was that the increase would be 0.5 ppt but after the recent sell-off of Ukraine, a 1.0 ppt hike was not a surprise at all. Russian risks are driving withdrawal by non-residents from local UAH-denominated state bonds, ...

Consumer inflation results with 10.0% ytd in 2021, disinflation is on track
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Jan 2022

Consumer inflation ended the year with 10.0% ytd or 9.4% y/y. The result is in the middle between the NBU forecast (9.6% ytd or 9.3% y/y) and our own estimate (+10.3% ytd or +9.4% y/y). Food prices (+12.7% ytd) and transportation costs (+11.1% ytd) are responsible for 2/3 of consumer inflation th...

Russian risk and domestic drama
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Dec 2021

All the diplomatic moves around tensions between Russia and Ukraine reaffirm our initial view that Vladimir Putin is just bargaining for concessions on the global level. Moscow is looking to increase its importance, but it’s highly improbable that the Russian president is prepared to become the n...

3Q GDPgrowth revised up to +2.7% y/y
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Dec 2021

GDP growth in 3Q 2021 was reported +2.7% y/y, up from the +2.4% y/y estimated previously, according to the Statistics Office release today. Household consumption remained strong in 3Q, with +9.0% y/y growth, as did investment in fixed assets, with +14.5% y/y growth. The key point that pulled GDP ...

The NBU lifts policy rate by 0.5 ppt up to 9.0% amid concerns on capital outflow
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

The NBU Board increased policy rate by 0.5 ppt up to 9.0%. The decision was not obvious: in polls analysts split 50/50 with near half of observers (including us) anticipated policy rate to remain unchanged. However, the decision went in line with previous communication of the NBU which articulate...

Spending plan 2022 approved with small deficit 3.5% of GDP and conservative revenues targets
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Dec 2021

Yesterday, on Dec 2nd, Verkhovna Rada approved spending plan 2022. The final version of the document was not released yet, some marginal revenues and spending have been added on the last moment. But the deficit target was left unchanged at the level of 3.5% of GDP. Targeted tax collections remain...

Russia grabbing the headlines, but tapering matters more
UKRAINE · Report · 30 Nov 2021

Ukraine’s economy is performing below expectations, with a disappointing 2.4% of GDP y/y growth in Q3 despite a historically bumper grain crop. To large extent, this is due to postponed harvesting, and there should be a proper upsurge in agroproduction—and GDP growth—in Q4. Still, good harvests a...

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