The federal budget revenues fall in July, and the budget to stay in deficit in 2H22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget revenues fell considerably – either m-o-m or y-o-y. Usually, tax collection in July is higher than in June as some companies pay some taxes quarterly. This year, the non-oil-and-gas revenues fell in July by 21.1% and 34.3% m-o-m and y-o-y, ...

The 2022 ANC Elective Congress and Its Emerging Possible Outcomes
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

As mentioned in our previous reports, 2022 is a critical year for SA’s democratic political evolution. The governing party, The African National Congress (ANC), is heading for its all-important December 2022 National Elective Congress at which the Party’s new leadership structures and its “presid...

Political climate to heat up and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2022

The election campaign begins. Online advertising, marches and rallies will be allowed. On Tuesday, August 16, Minister Alexandre de Moraes assumes the presidency of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). On August 18, three blocks of 15 airports in the North, Southeast and Midwest regions will be au...

Explosions at Russian base in Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

On August 11 there were explosions at a military base in Belarus. Russian troops have been stationed there in the past but it is unclear if Russian troops are there presently.  Belarus said there was an accidental fire and this caused a small explosion but there were no casualties. However, a Bel...

Stabilizing inertia is weakening
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Aug 2022

The anti-inflationary policy based on containing bolivar depreciation yielded modest results in July. Inflation slowed down to 7.0 percent from 9.5 percent in June, while the bolivar depreciated in nominal terms against the dollar by only 2.6 percent after having done so by 9.3 percent the month ...

Economics: Pemex continues to catch a break but may have squandered the chance to profitably apply the price-fueled windfall
MEXICO · Report · 15 Aug 2022

In keeping with the general tenor of the company’s first quarter report, Pemex’s April-June performance continued to greatly benefit from the market conditions that have sent crude and gas prices sharply higher. The company’s second quarter results showed added momentum on numerous upstream and d...

Today is the last day for parties to register their slates and coalitions at the TSE, party advertisements begin on Tuesday, and three presidential polls will be published this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2022

Political parties will have until 7 p.m. today to register their complete slates at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), with candidates for president and vice president, as well as the parties that make up their coalition. On Tuesday, August 16, party advertisements will begin. With this, rallies...

Rebels to rubles
TURKEY · Report · 15 Aug 2022 · 1 response

It is useful to watch the time-travel spy thriller “Tenet” (link here) before reading this brief note. Like in that controversial movie, the action in this essay moves from front to back and side-to-side. That is, it jumps from Erdogan’s new initiative to reach out to Syrian President Assad t...

Shekel appreciation continues and is expected to moderate tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Aug 2022

* Rapid shekel appreciation continued last week, reducing our inflation forecast as well as our rate forecast. * Economic indicators remain generally positive, especially the business sector survey (including high-tech). * We expect July’s CPI to reach 0.7% m/m (4.7% y/y) on higher food,...

S&P rating action, Guardian on local courts, construction industry and the strong dollar: the forint is under some pressure again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

The forint is still trading on the strong side of the important EURHUF 400 line, which is great, but it has come under some pressure this morning. Besides today's strong dollar, which is normally negative for the Hungarian currency, there are some domestic factors behind this as well. First, S&P ...

Russia increases energy sales to Hungary
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

On August 14 Hungary said that it has received extra gas from Russia. The Hungarian Foreign Minister visited Russia in July 2022. He is the only EU foreign minister to do so since the war began. Hungary stated that these talks secured the gas supplies which are 2.6 million cubic meters per day ad...

Shekel appreciation continues and is expected to moderate monetary tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2022

Consumers are pessimistic but the business sector sees growth ahead: The CBS consumer index declined in July to the lowest level since October 2020 (Covid lockdown), especially the forward-looking components. The Business Sector Tendency Survey points to steady growth and expectations of further ...

Valdez Albizu ratified as Governor of the Central Bank
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Aug 2022

President Luis Abinader has ratified the current governor of the Central Bank, Hector Valdez Albizu, to remain in the position for the period 2022-2024. Valdez Albizu has held the position for 24 years (1994-2000 and 2004-2022). He has worked as Governor of the Central Bank in the administrations...

Russian macro: balance of payments undergoing radical change
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Aug 2022

As the group of “unfriendly” countries is working hard to prepare the mechanism that could impose a price cap on Russian oil exports and is trying to convince other countries to join their club, it is worth looking at Russia’s balance of payments and consider its possible evolution. It looks as t...

Latvia declares Russia a ''state sponsor of terrorism''
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2022

On August 11 the Latvian Parliament passed a motion saying Russia had committed genocide in Ukraine. No one voted against the motion. Ukraine applauded the move.  Russia denounced this as xenophobia and accused those who passed the motion of being neo-Nazis. Latvia noted that Russia often uses cl...