Country Insights

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Medina’s Next Term: Continuity Over Innovation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Forecast 30 Aug 2016
President Danilo Medina’s mandatory speech before Congress on the inauguration day of his second four-year term sent a message of continuity, rather than innovation. His words conveyed hope and optimism, as he highlighted the achievements of his first term, and announced goals for the second. No...

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The Choice of Peace
COLOMBIA - Report 30 Aug 2016 1 response
After almost six years of intense waiting, a peace deal between the government and FARC-EP guerillas was reached in Havana on August 25th. Congress is expected to give it its blessing, and to authorize putting it to a national plebiscite, planned for October 2nd. Despite increased divide between ...

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September 1 Protest Could Be Game Changer
VENEZUELA - Report 30 Aug 2016 1 response
The opposition’s Coalition for Democratic Unity (MUD) has called for a major demonstration on September 1 and dubbed it the Occupation of Caracas. Its ultimate objective: pressure the government into allowing a recall vote this year. If the referendum is pushed into next year and succeeds, Maduro...

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Dilma’s speech does not change the pro-impeachment scenario
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 30 Aug 2016
There were many expectations regarding the tone that President Dilma Rousseff would use during her defense in the Senate. The speech was good, less emotional than expected, but insufficient to change the positioning of the Senate.

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President Dismisses Head of his Office Boris Lozhkin
UKRAINE - In Brief 29 Aug 2016
On August 29th President informed about dismissal of Head of President Office Boris Lozhkin. A no-name person Igor Raynin, till recently Head of Kharkiv Region State Administration, was named as a replacement for Lozhkin. There was no much information about this dismissal. In media there was prop...

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Week of August 29
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 29 Aug 2016
The Senate finalizes the impeachment proceedings this week to approve the definitive removal of President Dilma Rousseff. Michel Temer will then take over the Presidency of the Republic. The IBGE will confirm a GDP contraction in the second quarter. The Copom announces its decision on the benchma...

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SA Minister of Finance vs The President- Week 2
SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 29 Aug 2016
During the past week, the SA political economy scene has been the stage for a high level drama, unfolding episode by episode in full view of the nation. The main actor, the Minister of Finance; the script writers, it is believed to be, the President and his men. The goal, it appears, is none othe...

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End of the Recession and Outlook for the Current Accounts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 29 Aug 2016
In 2014 the current account deficit reached US$ 104 billion, as of when it has been declining, to US$ 27.9 billion in the 12 months through July 2016. In the past two months, the annualized monthly deficits (seasonally adjusted) have been higher than those over the previous 12 months (Graph 1), i...

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Rate stability despite upward growth surprise
ISRAEL - In Brief 29 Aug 2016
The rate hold decision was expected but we note that the BOI was surprised by the strong growth in q2 (3.7% Saar). Generally indicators are positive and the labor market robust. Inflation surprised on the upside in July and the the CPI excluding energy and government price cuts is up 0.8% YOY. Ho...

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​Q3 off to good start with strong job growth and PC demand
ISRAEL - In Brief 28 Aug 2016
Initial data for July suggests strong growth in Q3. Job creation remains robust, up 0.5% m-o-m.Unemployment points to near-full employment labor market (4% for ages 25-64).PC growth remains strong in July, with chain store sales up.Service exports are accelerating rapidly (21.9% SAAR in Q2).With ...

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Still Constructive on Politics
TURKEY - Report 26 Aug 2016
Turkey’s foray into Jarablus, Syria brings in its wake many unknowns. We treat the risks and returns from a prolonged stay of the Turkish Army in Syria in depth, concluding that it is a very risky gamble that might pay off. Biden’s visit to Turkey was a strong signal that the U.S. is afraid of...

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Guatemala: Showdown
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 26 Aug 2016
The next 18 months will be crucial for Guatemala. The country has exited from major crisis mode, but still has not embarked upon an optimistic path. H1 had a “business as usual” feel. The economy grew just above 3.1% y/y in H1, with inflation within the Central Bank’s 3%-5% target range. The f...

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Astonishing GDP, employment and CAD figures for H1
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 25 Aug 2016
On Wednesday, the Central Bank reported GDP preliminary figures for H1 2016. Results are, once again, surprising: a 7.4% growth compared to H1 2015. This remarkable expansion of economic activity was mainly driven by an extraordinary expansion of production in Q2, when GDP registered an 8.7% grow...

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Why the IMF Raised its Growth Outlook
CHINA - Report 25 Aug 2016
The IMF in June raised its 2016 growth outlook for China to 6.6%, a 0.1 pp uptick from its April projection, even though Brexit prompted the Fund to slice its global growth forecast for 2016 by 0.1 pp, to 3.1%. The growth upgrade for China shows that the IMF is optimistic about the major refo...

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Economics: Public Finance Looking Vulnerable
MEXICO - Report 25 Aug 2016
Over the course of 2016 the Ministry of Finance has exerted effective controls over public finance. As we analyzed in the June 27 issue of Weekly Trends: Mexico Economy, the government decided to lower spending for 2016 by 132.4 billion pesos, with austerity measures including the elimination of ...