GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The week’s marque politics event was the first gathering of 6 opposition leaders to discuss the future of post-Erdogan Turkey. The summit produced little in the way of concrete plans, but we shall wait until 28 February to pass final judgement, when the ‘Transition to a Strengthened Parliamentary...

Strong fiscal numbers expected to support bond issuance reduction

ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Feb 2022

January witnessed a huge fiscal surplus The fiscal surplus reached 18.5bn ILS, as tax revenues increased sharply on huge tax revenues from corporates. The LTM fiscal deficit declined to 3.3% GDP from 4.5% last month. We expect the MoF to reduce weekly bond issuance to 0.8-0.9bn from 1.1-1.2bn at ...

Early presidential election in Turkmenistan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2022

On February 12 the Turkmen government said that an early presidential election shall be held on March 12, 2022. President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov has ruled the country for 15 years. The 64-year-old has dropped hints that he might retire early from his post. In 2019 he had some health scares.T...

US warns Russia could invade Ukraine anytime but Biden and Putin agree to speak

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2022

On February 11 the US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that Russia could launch a full-scale war imminently. The US has warned its citizens in Ukraine to leave by February 13. Some say that Russia would not make an aggressive move now as the Olympics are on until February 20. The US d...

UK Defense Minister in Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

On February 11 Ben Wallace visited Moscow to meet his Russian analogue. He repeated the warning of other Western leaders that a full scale war between Russia and Ukraine would have grave repercussions.The Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said that tensions in Eastern Europe were not due to Russia....

GULF WEEKLY: IEA says Gulf could pump more, Aramco could list more equity, PIF could issue after being rated

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Feb 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * As oil continues to rise, the IEA hinted that the Gulf could make up for shortfalls elsewhere in OPEC+. * Iran nuclear talks reconvened in Vienna amidst expectations that a deal is no more than a few weeks away. * Omicro...

The recovery will slow, but at least an inflationary explosion can be avoided

ARGENTINA · Forecast · 10 Feb 2022

After long negotiations, the staff of the IMF and Minister Martín Guzman reached an understanding on the path for the primary fiscal deficit and the monetary assistance of the Central Bank to the Treasury that will be the core of a program. The government hopes the program will be supported by t...

Past the peak of the Omicron wave?

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2022

Some indicators seem to suggest that the peak of the local 5th (Omicron) wave of Covid has been just passed, whereas others, normally lagged indicators, have not shown any sign of improvement yet. Two things are for sure, anyway: hospitalisation and death rates are very much lower with Omicron th...

Positive fiscal surprises mask threatening increases in spending

COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Feb 2022

Deficit numbers for 2021 came in substantially below the previous round of government projections; the same happened with debt. Minister Restrepo hinted at even better results when definitive 2021 GDP numbers come out in mid-February. The context Restrepo provided prior to releasing the defici...

HEADS UP: Anger spills out to the streets

TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2022 · 1 response

Rising poverty in Turkey has been a constant theme in our reports since the beginning of 4Q2021. New Year wage, salary and pension hikes soothed some of the pain of national impoverishment. Erdogan than committed another mistake by allowing regulated prices to be hiked faster than disposable inco...

High inflation could warrant surprise Central Bank move

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2022

In January 2022, CPI annual inflation was 6.94%, surpassing the 6.31% expected by the respondents to the Central Bank survey. Food, increase of 19.94%, however 186 of the 188 classes of goods and services had price increases. So, it is a widespread phenomenon that goes well beyond food (see Table...

Congress is expected to review presidential vetoes this week, the fuels issue remains on the agenda, and two new polls on the presidential election are to be published

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2022

One of the vetoes that may be overturned is the one on the Budget. In all, the Bolsonaro government vetoed R$ 3.184 billion in expenditures approved by legislators. The rapporteur of the bill supports overturning this veto. Another veto refers to the bill that allowed the renegotiation of debts o...

Turkey Covid Watch - February 7, 2022

TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2022

Since our last Covid Watch (of January 24, 2022), cases continued to rise, to reach new highs. Average cases rose to 101.7K on Sunday. Despite daily infections reaching record levels, however, there has been no changes in the regulatory environment.

Tightening labor market and strong growth support higher rates

ISRAEL · Report · 07 Feb 2022

1. Despite Omicron, economic data in January was generally positive, including the latest business survey and employment growth. 2. Credit growth was rapid in 2021, especially household credit for housing, and this will increasingly become a consideration for monetary policy. 3. We ...

All about the elections

TURKEY · Report · 06 Feb 2022 · 1 response

The politics section of this report is entirely dedicated to the possibility of early elections because this is the “only talk of the town”. We start by revisiting our 2022 baseline political scenario, which remains broadly intact, with only minor revisions. The next section cites circumstanti...