COLOMBIA - Report 30 Aug 2016 1 response

After almost six years of intense waiting, a peace deal between the government and FARC-EP guerillas was reached in Havana on August 25th. Congress is expected to give it its blessing, and to authorize putting it to a national plebiscite, planned for October 2nd. Despite increased divide between ...

VENEZUELA - Report 30 Aug 2016 1 response

The opposition’s Coalition for Democratic Unity (MUD) has called for a major demonstration on September 1 and dubbed it the Occupation of Caracas. Its ultimate objective: pressure the government into allowing a recall vote this year. If the referendum is pushed into next year and succeeds, Maduro...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 30 Aug 2016

There were many expectations regarding the tone that President Dilma Rousseff would use during her defense in the Senate. The speech was good, less emotional than expected, but insufficient to change the positioning of the Senate.

UKRAINE - In Brief 29 Aug 2016

On August 29th President informed about dismissal of Head of President Office Boris Lozhkin. A no-name person Igor Raynin, till recently Head of Kharkiv Region State Administration, was named as a replacement for Lozhkin. There was no much information about this dismissal. In media there was prop...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 29 Aug 2016

The Senate finalizes the impeachment proceedings this week to approve the definitive removal of President Dilma Rousseff. Michel Temer will then take over the Presidency of the Republic. The IBGE will confirm a GDP contraction in the second quarter. The Copom announces its decision on the benchma...

SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 29 Aug 2016

During the past week, the SA political economy scene has been the stage for a high level drama, unfolding episode by episode in full view of the nation. The main actor, the Minister of Finance; the script writers, it is believed to be, the President and his men. The goal, it appears, is none othe...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 29 Aug 2016

In 2014 the current account deficit reached US$ 104 billion, as of when it has been declining, to US$ 27.9 billion in the 12 months through July 2016. In the past two months, the annualized monthly deficits (seasonally adjusted) have been higher than those over the previous 12 months (Graph 1), i...

ISRAEL - In Brief 29 Aug 2016

The rate hold decision was expected but we note that the BOI was surprised by the strong growth in q2 (3.7% Saar). Generally indicators are positive and the labor market robust. Inflation surprised on the upside in July and the the CPI excluding energy and government price cuts is up 0.8% YOY. Ho...

ISRAEL - In Brief 28 Aug 2016

Initial data for July suggests strong growth in Q3. Job creation remains robust, up 0.5% m-o-m.Unemployment points to near-full employment labor market (4% for ages 25-64).PC growth remains strong in July, with chain store sales up.Service exports are accelerating rapidly (21.9% SAAR in Q2).With ...

TURKEY - Report 26 Aug 2016

Turkey’s foray into Jarablus, Syria brings in its wake many unknowns. We treat the risks and returns from a prolonged stay of the Turkish Army in Syria in depth, concluding that it is a very risky gamble that might pay off. Biden’s visit to Turkey was a strong signal that the U.S. is afraid of...

CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 26 Aug 2016

The next 18 months will be crucial for Guatemala. The country has exited from major crisis mode, but still has not embarked upon an optimistic path. H1 had a “business as usual” feel. The economy grew just above 3.1% y/y in H1, with inflation within the Central Bank’s 3%-5% target range. The f...

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 25 Aug 2016

On Wednesday, the Central Bank reported GDP preliminary figures for H1 2016. Results are, once again, surprising: a 7.4% growth compared to H1 2015. This remarkable expansion of economic activity was mainly driven by an extraordinary expansion of production in Q2, when GDP registered an 8.7% grow...

CHINA - Report 25 Aug 2016

The IMF in June raised its 2016 growth outlook for China to 6.6%, a 0.1 pp uptick from its April projection, even though Brexit prompted the Fund to slice its global growth forecast for 2016 by 0.1 pp, to 3.1%. The growth upgrade for China shows that the IMF is optimistic about the major refo...

MEXICO - Report 25 Aug 2016

Over the course of 2016 the Ministry of Finance has exerted effective controls over public finance. As we analyzed in the June 27 issue of Weekly Trends: Mexico Economy, the government decided to lower spending for 2016 by 132.4 billion pesos, with austerity measures including the elimination of ...

MEXICO - Report 24 Aug 2016

Although Mexico has made great strides in building a democratic electoral system over the past 40 years, problems remain – for example, extensive use of illegal campaign funding, ineffective regulations on media access, widespread vote buying – that undercut the legitimacy of the elections and pr...