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Report on Tax Reform expected today in the House
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 May 2021

​As announced last week by the president of the House, Arthur Lira, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro should present his report on the Tax Reform proposal today. Deputy Aguinaldo supports a broader Tax Reform through a Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC), while Deputy Arthur advocates a more grad...

Lower bond issuance likely to offset tapering
ISRAEL · Report · 03 May 2021

Private consumption indicators point to a strong rebound in February-March. This is likely to support strong tax revenues and a positive fiscal print for April. In addition, we see strong consumer demand fueling inflation in the short run, partially offset by a strong shekel. Government bond issu...

Inflation rises further, peak talk premature
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2021 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by 1.7%, m/m, in April, slightly less than the market consensus (1.8%), with the 12-month CPI inflation increasing further by almost a full percentage point to 17.1% from 16.2% in March. Parenthetically, this is the seventh consecutive month of increase in CPI inflation, and ...

A humiliating political defeat
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 02 May 2021

Following weekend consultations with political leaders in the wake of nationwide protests that lasted three days, president Duque finally came to terms with the fact that Minister Carrasquilla’s explosively unpopular attempt at widening both the VAT and the personal income tax base has to be scra...

Lower bond issuance likely to offset tapering
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 May 2021

Highlights: Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery Exports of hi-tech services (10% GDP) increased by 29% in January-February compared to Q420 (annualized). Private consumption rebounded sharply in Q121 with both chain store sales and credit card purchases expanding sharply. T...

Tragically disconnected
TURKEY · Report · 02 May 2021

Turkey’s, what the politics author had dubbed, “saddle-point political equilibrium”, faded into a governance crisis over the past two weeks, with President Erdogan almost completely losing touch with the basic exigencies of the political and economic ecosystem he is in charge of. As a result, the...

Navalny's organization outlawed for being 'terrorist-linked'
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 May 2021

On April 30 the Foundation Against Corruption (FBK) was banned. Rosinfomonitoring claimed that FBK is connected to terrorism. The government can now freeze FBK bank accounts.A court is likely to rule that FBK is extremist next week. FBK has 50 regional offices. These will be sequestrated. Anyone ...

Covid reopening took place on Labor Day, Covid data looks OK for now
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 May 2021

The reopening measures announced a few days ago became effective yesterday, as the number of first-shot vaccinated people had exceeded the 4 million mark domestically (4.064 million or 42% of the whole population by this morning). The basic rule is that pretty much everything, including shops, se...

Economic activity is flat y-o-y in 1Q21, key rate hikes to limit growth going forward
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that in 1Q21 output of the five basic sectors was flat y-o-y, while in March, it increased by 2.4% y-o-y. Even though trends in industry, agriculture, construction, transport, and trade (retail and wholesale) that contribute to over 60% of the country’s economic activity, were un...

Today is the deadline of the Joint Committee on Tax Reform, but the rapporteur has not yet submitted his report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2021

Today is the deadline of the Joint Committee on Tax Reform, but the rapporteur, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro, has not yet submitted his report. The president of the House, Arthur Lira, said that the Tax Reform proposal will become public starting next week so that party leaders and governors will hav...

​GULF WEEKLY: Moody’s negative on Bahrain, S&P affirms Sharjah, QP might issue $10bn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Apr 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Moody’s put Bahrain on negative outlook and sees debt rising to 140% of GDP by 2023. * S&P affirmed Sharjah but sharply cut its fiscal outlook, with debt up to 63% of GDP by 2024. * Its update on RAK was more positive, wi...

Huarong and state defaults
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Apr 2021

The Huarong near default was important because a) it is the largest of the country’s Asset Management debt workout firms; b) it is 61 percent owned by the Ministry of Finance, making it directly owned by the central government; and c) it is has a significant amount of outstanding bonds, both dome...

Covid-19 eases its grip and the growth outlook improves
PANAMA · Report · 30 Apr 2021

So far this year the IMAE is showing a decrease of 9.73% for February and 12.2% during the first two months of the year. We must take this information cum granus salis because, during the first quarter of 2021, most commercial activities were shut down because of the pandemic. In contrast, in 202...

Mobility restrictions for the holiday
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Apr 2021

Indonesia is in the midst of the fasting month, the Ramadan. In the second week of May 2021, the holidays will start and they are usually full of celebrations, among families and in communities. Prior to the holidays, millions of people will go back to their hometowns and villages to see their pa...

Russia bans US from hiring most Russian staff
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2021

On April 30 the United States announced that it is obliged to reduce services drastically at its Moscow Embassy. Non-emergency services will no longer be available. The change shall take effect from May 12, 2021. That is because Russia has limited the number of Russians allowed to work for the em...

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