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Country Insights

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Links Cut to Occupied Donbas Likely to Stymie Growth
UKRAINE - Forecast 05 Apr 2017
GDP expanded 2.3% y/y in 2016, far more than we’d expected. An upsurge in local investment, of 20.1% y/y, and expansion of inventories, were the main drivers. Investment grew, despite scarce FDI, on the back of agro and state investment. An impressive +9.7% y/y grain harvest increased inventorie...

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The TSE should resume the trial on the Dilma-Temer ticket in May
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 04 Apr 2017
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) accepted a request filed by former President Dilma Rousseff’s defense team, and the trial on the merit of the case was postponed. The Court decided to give the defense an additional five (5) days to present final statements. An additional request for further tes...

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The political picture is getting more colorful
HUNGARY - In Brief 04 Apr 2017
No doubt, the recent picture in domestic politics has been quite boring, as analysts could only report on continued Fidesz dominance in the polls, in addition to a never-ending series of soap-opera-style mini-conflicts among the many small parties of the leftist-liberal opposition, and occasional...

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When It Rains, It Pours
PERU - Report 04 Apr 2017
Natural disasters, in the form of excessive rain and mudslides, have now edged out the corruption scandals involving Brazilian companies, to take center stage in the national psyche. As many as 1 million people may be affected by the El Niño floods, 15% of them severely. The government believes t...

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We move on. The IMF approves $1 billion wire. Next stop – agro-land market
UKRAINE - In Brief 03 Apr 2017 1 response
The IMF approved fourth wire ($1 billion) for Ukraine under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. This decision was long-awaited and was hotly welcomed by Ukrainian authorities especially after the Executive Board canceled its meeting two weeks ago. Luckily it was just a delay and the Fund wa...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Apr 2017
Temer tested the thin ice on which his government rests and nearly provoked a disaster by excluding state and municipal governments from the social security reform proposal. Perhaps to avoid, with the complacency of governors, state civil servants from protesting in the visitors’ galleries of Con...

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Week of April 3
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 03 Apr 2017
A busy week, with the beginning of the trial against the Dilma-Temer ticket in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) on Tuesday, April 4. In the Lower House, the rapporteur of the pension reform may present his report to the Special Committee. The report on political reform may also be presented. On...

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Inflation Already Exceeds 11%
TURKEY - Report 03 Apr 2017
Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 1% in March, which raised the 12-month rate to 11.3%, up from 10.1% in February. Producer prices also rose sharply to a 12-month rate of 16.1%, up from 15.4% (Table 1; Graph 1). Contrary to consensus expectation, CPI-inflation going over the 11% mark...

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From democratic façade to outright dictatorship
VENEZUELA - Report 03 Apr 2017
Two Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) rulings early last week stripped the National Assembly of its powers and restricted parliamentary immunity, leaving Nicolás Maduro with no formal checks on his power. This lurch into dictatorship caused an uproar at home and abroad. As we write, the court see...

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Meeting the Fiscal Target and Signals from Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Apr 2017
Last week the Finance Ministry announced measures to guarantee compliance with the primary deficit target in 2017; the National Monetary Council (CMN) disclosed new rules for loans from the BNDES; and the Central Bank published the latest Inflation Report, updating the projections for 2017 and 20...

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Alianza Pais will Continue for Four More Years
ECUADOR - In Brief 02 Apr 2017
The candidate from Alianza Pais, Lenin Moreno, has officially been declared the next president of Ecuador with 51.07% of votes against the candidate from the opposition, Guillermo Lasso who received the vote of 48.96% of the population. The results from the election show a highly polarized countr...

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Pre-Referendum Stock Taking
TURKEY - Report 02 Apr 2017
We consider the presidential referendum a threshold event in Turkish history. Our poll-of-polls reveals a very tight race, but based on past experience and AKP’s “institutional advantages”, we assign 60% odds to a YES victory. Nevertheless, we admit the low reliability of polls because of the ...

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The economy and the political cost of reforms account for Temer’s lack of popularity
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 31 Mar 2017
Research conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics (Ibope), commissioned by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), indicates that Michel Temer´s favorability ratings have dropped. The number of those who evaluate his presidency positively (good/great) has shrunk...

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The Reserve Bank Remains Dovish Amid Political Uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 31 Mar 2017
The South African Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee has once again opted to keep the benchmark interest rate at 7% and therefore the prime lending rate at 10.5%. This took place amid the latest political turmoil that is once again spearheaded by the Republic’s President, Mr Jacob Zuma.

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Q4 Growth: Surprises Never End
TURKEY - Report 31 Mar 2017
The economy grew at a better-than expected 3.5% pace in Q4, y/y, compared with the consensus and our forecasts of around 2% and 2.5%, respectively. The driver on the demand side was a whopping increase in private consumption spending, which grew by 5.7%, y/y, while the rest of the spending compo...