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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Covid CPI is a source of tension and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Apr 2021

The Wednesday holiday this week means reduced activity in Brasília. We highlight the sanctioning of the Budget on Thursday. Congress will analyze vetoes and the bill that allows for increased expenditures. The Federal Supreme Court rules on the partiality of former Minister Sérgio Moro. President...

Politics: AMLO intensifies the offensive against the INE
MEXICO · Report · 19 Apr 2021

In this, the second part of our coverage of the confrontation between President López Obrador and his party on one side, and the country’s electoral authorities on the other, we look at how much the governing camp has raised the stakes in this dispute and is likely to continue to do so well after...

Second wave of infections aggravates social and political conflict
ARGENTINA · Report · 19 Apr 2021

The decision of the Economic Minister in February to slow the pace of devaluation on the official exchange market in order to reduce the rate of inflation has failed so far. Actually, in March the rate of inflation jumped to 4.8% from 3.6%, and some early indicators show that it is not falling in...

Economics: Rising inflation complicates policy choices
MEXICO · Report · 19 Apr 2021

Minutes from Banco de México’s most recent monetary policy review (March 25) show most board members agree the rate pause they unanimously approved at that meeting does not signal an end to the easing cycle dating back to August 2019 that slashed 8.25 percent off the reference rate. They may get ...

Turkey Covid Watch - April 19, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 19 Apr 2021

The number of daily reported Covid cases continues its rapid increase, while daily deaths also surge, both reaching new peaks of the third wave in Turkey. Additional restrictions for the holy month of Ramadan have been announced as a response to the recently soaring numbers. However, many health ...

The 2021 Budget will be concluded this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Apr 2021

The 2021 Budget will be concluded this week, as the deadline for presidential sanction is Thursday, April 22. President Bolsonaro is expected to veto some parts of the proposal, which should be analyzed by Congress today or tomorrow. The government is also considering submitting a bill that allow...

Pent-up demand impacts inflation, while rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Apr 2021

*Inflation surprised slightly on the upside due to the impact from pent-up demand as the economy opened up. *On the other hand, housing rental prices moderated, supporting a moderation in core inflation to 0.2% y/y from 0.3% last month. *We are forecasting inflation of 0.9% in the next 12...

Good progress on Covid vaccination, but political risk is rising
HUNGARY · Forecast · 19 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The Covid epidemic really looks like a roller-coaster. In response to the restrictions introduced in early March, its third wave reached a maximum within a few weeks, and daily new infections turned sharply down in the first half of April. However, so far the curve has fallen just a little below ...

Pent-up demand impacts inflation, while rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Apr 2021

Highlights of the weekly macro review: Inflation in March surprises slightly on the upside The CPI in March reached 0.6% m/m and 0.2% y/y. We (and the market) had expected 0.5% m/m. Pent-up demand was felt on domestic vacation prices (9.7% m/m) and cultural events and parties (3.7%). This was off...

It was sort of a dull week, for a change
TURKEY · Report · 18 Apr 2021

Domestic politics are utterly boring for investors and multinational businesses, and suicidally depressive for those who make a living covering them. The never-changing fact of life is the steady decline in poll ratings of AKP+MHP, attended by ever-less effective attempts to spin the agenda to im...

A second wave of Covid-19 in India
INDIA · In Brief · 18 Apr 2021

Through 2020, sero-prevalence data was showing a large-scale spread of the disease within India. Alongside this, a large surge of Covid-19 related deaths was not visible. The analysis of excess deaths data showed that the fingerprints of Covid-19 in death -- male, elderly, co-morbidities, urban -...

Czechs kick out 18 Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Apr 2021

On April 17 Prague declared the Russian diplomats PNG on the basis that they were committing espionage. It is suspected that they caused an explosion in 2014 at an ammunition warehouse. Two people were killed in the blast.The government acknowledged the move would seriously hamper relations with ...

Economic recovery underway, amid higher inflation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 16 Apr 2021

For the first time since the start of the pandemic, the Dominican Republic in February showed positive y/y growth, of 1.1%, which offset the -1.8% contraction seen in January. Accumulated growth in January-February 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, was -0.3%. The expansion, mainly in con...

​GULF WEEKLY: Aramco sells pipelines, US-UAE arms deal approved, Kuwaiti former PM detained
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Apr 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IMF sees the fiscal breakevens improving relative to 2019 in all bar Kuwait and Bahrain. * It forecasts a surprisingly wide range of oil and non-oil recoveries across the region. * Israeli sabotage overshadowed US-Ira...

The STF confirmed Minister Fachin's decision and annulled the convictions against former President Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Apr 2021

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) confirmed Minister Edson Fachin’s decision and annulled the convictions against former President Lula, maintaining his eligibility. Lula should remain eligible unless he is convicted in another case before the deadline for the election’s candidate registration on A...

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