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Country Insights

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The mainstream view on Indian growth is shifting
INDIA - In Brief 08 Sep 2017 1 response
For a sustained period, Ila Patnaik and I have argued that India got into a downturn in 2011 and has not yet come out of it. This was inconsistent with the mainstream discourse. The conventional view of financial firm economists was that growth had crashed with the 2013 currency defense but recov...

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Inflation up in August, industrial output growth temporarily (?) down in July
HUNGARY - In Brief 08 Sep 2017
Inflation data for August came out marginally higher than market expectation, and pretty much in line with our forecast, this morning. The headline rate jumped to 2.6% yoy, quite sharply up from 2.1% yoy in July, despite just 0.1% rise in the CPI in August alone. Just as we wrote in our previous ...

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Record inflation in August, possible slowdown in September
VENEZUELA - Report 07 Sep 2017
We adjust our August estimated monthly inflation rate up to 32.6 percent from 28.0 percent. Year-on-year inflation rises to 748 percent and accumulated inflation for the year through 31 August 2017 rises to 357 percent. The push in August came from a stronger than expected increase in the pric...

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Embarking on a New Growth Cycle
UKRAINE - Report 06 Sep 2017
The economy is performing far better than expected. Derzhstat, the statistics agency, reported a 2.4% y/y GDP increase in Q2, twice faster than we initially projected. Booming local investment — +22.5% y/y for H1 — and recovering consumption are the drivers. Remarkably, this result was achieved d...

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​Really, Mrs. Merkel?
TURKEY - In Brief 05 Sep 2017 1 response
Pressured by her Social Democrat rival Mr. Schultz, Chancellor Merkel was forced to promise to end or suspend Turkish accession on Sunday in a televised debate. I waited until Wednesday to cover this story, because she seemed evasive in her response to Schultz. However in Tuesday, in her speech t...

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The South African Economy Ends its Technical Recession
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 05 Sep 2017
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualized quarterly GDP grew by 2.5% during the second quarter of 2017. This is a welcome outcome, largely expected by the market (as high frequency data was pointing to a positive growth outcome). This means South Africa is out of the technical recession w...

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Indonesian Quasi-Sovereigns
INDONESIA - Report 05 Sep 2017
Indonesian quasi-sovereigns are mostly in the form of state-owned enterprises. Currently there are over 100 SOEs, and many of them also have subsidiaries. Among the many Indonesian SOEs, Pertamina stands out as the largest company. Pertamina has several subsidiaries, and some of the subsidiaries ...

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Growth Despite Softer Consumption, in the Twilight of the Administration
MEXICO - Report 05 Sep 2017
Economic data released in August showed stronger GDP (+3.0% yoy for 2Q17) even as growth in industrial activity was restricted almost entirely to manufacturing (+4.0%). Cyclical indicators were positive as were readings of private consumption, which sustained its momentum (+ 4.0% in May), led by ...

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Aiming for an Image of Judicial Independence
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Forecast 05 Sep 2017 1 response
The National Council of the Magistracy (CNM) last month appointed new judges to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the highest court for the resolution of electoral conflicts. Although the appointments, factually under control of President Danilo Medina, secured the PLD’s control over the court,...

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Fuel prices likely to push up yoy CPI-inflation markedly in August
HUNGARY - In Brief 05 Sep 2017
Please, be prepared this Friday (September 8) for a marked jump by the yoy rate of CPI-inflation, to 2.6% in August from 2.1% in July, despite our expectation of zero one-month change in average prices in August. This is likely to be caused by fuel prices alone (7.5% of the CPI basket), which we ...

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Core Rises Further Despite Lira Stability
TURKEY - Report 05 Sep 2017
Consumer prices rose by a markedly higher than expected 0.5% in August, taking the 12-month rate sharply higher to 10.7%, from 9.8% in July. Producer prices and core inflation (C-index) also rose further to 16.3% and 10.2%, respectively (from 15.5% and 9.6%), while service inflation was stable, b...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 04 Sep 2017
The end of the recession – sealed by two straight quarters of GDP growth – and the continuing decline of inflation, interest rates and unemployment, are positive signs offered by the competent economic team. However, on the political side the picture is the opposite. The president’s fragility, re...

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Week of September 4
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 04 Sep 2017
This Thursday’s holiday (Independence Day) will reduce the pace in Congress, which may conclude the vote on the new fiscal targets for 2017 and 2018. In the Lower House, another attempt to move forward with Political Reform and Refis; in the Senate, the Provisional Measure that creates the TLP co...

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Chile’s top economic team walks away
CHILE - Report 04 Sep 2017
Chile’s entire economic team resigned last week, and the Santiago stock market was barely affected. Yet the news was a shock to the country’s political system. Indeed, the departure of Finance Minister Rodrigo Valdes, Deputy Finance Minister Alejandro Micco, and Economy Minister Luis Felipe Césp...

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End of the Recession and Resumption of Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 04 Sep 2017
GDP has expanded in the past two quarters, indicating that the CODACE will likely date the end of the recession as the last quarter of 2016. As expected, on the demand side, GDP growth in the second quarter of 2017 was driven by increased household consumption, which expanded by an annualized rat...