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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fiscal policy on the move
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jul 2022

Well, it cannot be justly said that the government is not moving quickly enough once it really feels the need to do so. Most lately, the following series of action took place: 1. Two days ago, the cabinet detailed in a decree its plans for this year's HUF568bn (0.9% of GDP) reduction of the gover...

Sanctions impact Russian IT
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2022

In April 2022 the Prime Minister asked IT specialists not to leave the country. Russia is still trying to build a sovereign internet.  Digital Platforms is a Russian IT company that has made NashStore, which is Russia's answer to Google Play. It is doubtful that Russian alternatives can provide t...

Lira paused the vote on the PEC on Fuels due to technical difficulties, Congress approved the LDO, and Lula will meet with Rodrigo Pacheco today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jul 2022

The main text of the PEC on Fuels was approved with 393 votes in favor and 14 against. Lira announced the suspension when the edit that removes the state of emergency from the text was being analyzed. We still believe that the PEC on Fuels will be approved. Yesterday, Congress concluded the appro...

The Russian budget remains in surplus in 1H22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 1H22, the federal budget revenues reached R14.0 trln, i.e., 56.0% of the target. Spending reached R12.6 trln over the same period (53.4% of the annual target). These targets, though, are supposed to be somehow amended once the 2023 draft budget is submitte...

Western armaments for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

NATO and EU countries have been supplying Ukraine since 2014. However, until 2022 this is mostly non-lethal aid. Ukrainian military officers have been trained in the US since the 1990s. The US sold Ukraine Javelin anti-tank weapons from 2018. Ukraine started to buy TB2 drones from Turkey in 2019....

President Cortizo announces that he plans to continue his tenure after his medical checkup in Houston. More subsidies are on the table to tame the inflationary effects.
PANAMA · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

In a pre-recorded televised conference yesterday, Laurentino Cortizo announced that his health is stable. He plans to continue leading the Executive until the end of the Constitutional term in July 2024. Last week Cortizo traveled to Houston, Texas, to obtain a second opinion about the diagnosis ...

Ukraine War situation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

Russia is bombarding Sloviansk in east Ukraine. Mostly, Russia is regrouping after taking Lysychansk. Russia appears to have learnt from its mistakes in February and March. Its strategy is now bite and hold. It concentrates overwhelming firepower on one area for as long as it takes to break the e...

Stabilization with tailwinds from oil
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Jul 2022

Stabilization is advancing, thanks to tailwinds from rising oil revenue that are allowing the central bank to defend the bolivar energetically. Ultimately, it is this strategy of defending the bolivar that is setting the path for exchange rates and inflation both. Cash inflows and a political ...

Just as expected: the base rate and the interest rate corridor rose by 200bps today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

Today's non-rate-setting Monetary Council meeting, which is regularly held once a month, was turned into a rate-setting event, as expected on the basis of hints from the MNB given last week. The base rate went up to 9.75%, the same as the 1-week depo rate, and the interest rate corridor rose to 9...

Politics: One year on, the presidential succession process heats up
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2022

Ever since AMLO got the ball rolling on the incumbent party’s presidential succession efforts over a year ago by beginning to signal his preferred nominees, the 4T camp has been gearing up for the battle it will face two years from now. Although any campaigning for 2024 nominations is legally pro...

The vote on the LDO was postponed, the government is concerned about the opposition’s edits to the PEC on Fuels, and Sergio Moro will announce his candidacy in the elections today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jul 2022

The rapporteur of the LDO, Senator Marcos do Val (Podemos-ES), removed from his report and the text the mandatory execution of amendments to the secret budget. One of the factors that contributed to the postponement is the disagreement between deputies and senators regarding the change in voting ...

The end approaches for Castillo; inflation remains stubbornly high
PERU · Report · 12 Jul 2022

In this report, we discuss how long President Pedro Castillo is likely to remain in office; examine the link between private consumption and mass drawdowns from pension funds; and look at Peru’s inflation performance. With Peru’s commodity prices falling and political risk rising, we have decided...

Outlook on the recovery
INDIA · Report · 12 Jul 2022

The most interesting question in Indian economics concerns the strong performance of listed companies in late 2021 and early 2022: will this be maintained and will it carry forward? Or will it peter out? Strong firm performance has been assisted so far by high export growth, but there are some...

Getting prepared to clean the South
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

The war again became very tough for Russians over the recent weeks. In fact, the war was tough for Kremlin from the very beginning but, at least, the Russians managed to make modest progress in Donbass when applying "scorched earth" tactics. Just to remind you, Russian forces managed to reach an ...

A first look at the medium-term fiscal program
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

Last Friday, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), an inter-agency body made up of the departments of budget, finance, planning and the BSP, presented the new administration’s fiscal program for 2022 to 2028. The medium-term program hinges on the economy sustaining its growth clip...

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