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Weekly Tracker: May 8-14
TURKEY - Report 08 May 2016
Prime Minister Davutoglu’s departure illustrated the highly unpredictable nature of Turkish politics, lending further credence to our scenario of steadily rising risks for the rest of the year. We can’t guarantee that Deputy PM Mehmet Simsek will retain his post in the new government, or struct...

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Encouraging Signs
CHINA - Forecast 06 May 2016
Though the 6.7% y/y GDP rise in Q1 represented a slowdown from Q4 2015, improved principal indicators bolster our confidence in future growth. Industrial output was up 6.8% y/y in March, a 0.7 pps rise from Q4. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture rose 10.7% y/y, up 1.4 pps, with growth e...

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Hibernation: A state of inactivity and metabolic depression
CHILE - Report 06 May 2016
Data concerning sectorial activity reveal an economy that continues to grow at very low rates. Nominal retail sales growth went down. The index, beyond the fluctuation in February, has been flat during the year. Decomposing the index, it becomes evident that even though sales of non-durable good...

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Things Are Looking Up
PERU - Forecast 06 May 2016
Due to better domestic and external conditions, our economic outlook is more optimistic than at the time of our last Quarterly, on February 1st. Growth is rebounding powerfully, driven by expansion of primary activities, which in turn have been spurred by the activities of two mega mines. For 2...

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Timid Signs of Recovery
UKRAINE - Report 06 May 2016
New statistical data and the formation of a new government in Kyiv offered a small dose of optimism. True, new Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman is part of the old system, and we have our reservations about calling him a “reformer.” Yet, the Cabinet’s initial moves are moves in the right directio...

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The Supreme Court suspends Eduardo Cunha
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 05 May 2016
The verdict delivered by Brazil’s Supreme Court (STF) to suspend Eduardo Cunha (PMDB), president of the House of Representatives, is an act of hyper-judicialization of politics. The judicial intervention evidences the inability of the House to solve a serious political problem within its own rank...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 05 May 2016
BUILDING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLE - The acceptance of the impeachment motion by the Chamber of Deputies by a comfortable majority sealed, from a political point of view, the end of the Rousseff administration. There are still legal steps to take place, as the ones running in the Senate, but de facto pol...

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The Picture Darkens
MEXICO - Report 05 May 2016
Hard indicators published in April painted a more somber picture of the Mexican economy, beginning with a 14.2% plunge in the number of cars and light trucks exported in March, and an 11% fall in the number made, despite record domestic demand. Manufacturing export activity in general has shrunk,...

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​Farewell to Davutoglu..and parliamentary democracy
TURKEY - In Brief 04 May 2016
At the day the EU Commission proposed lifting the visa barrier to Turkish citizens, president Erdogan decided to dismiss premier Davutoglu, denying him the biggest victory of his brief career and demonstrating convincingly that parliamentary democracy is dead in Turkey. To remind readers, Erdogan...

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Reuters news
TURKEY - In Brief 04 May 2016
Replying to your queries, I'm posting the Reuters news item in Turkish I referred to in my morning update ANALİZ-Davutoğlu ile anayasa başta olmak üzere bazı konularda fikir ayrılığına düşen Erdoğan, AKP'de olağanüstü kongre için harekete geçebilir - Reuters News 03-May-2016 05:25:30 PM Ercan Gur...

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The PGR torpedoes Lula’s political future
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 04 May 2016
The decisions by the Prosecutor General of the Republic (PGR) this Tuesday seriously compromise Lula’s political future. In addition, they reinforce the definitive impeachment of Dilma Rousseff and place the pre-eminent figures of the Lula-PT movement in a precarious situation, possibly making th...

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A 'Greek tax' may be manufactured in Brussels?
HUNGARY - In Brief 04 May 2016
Today's local press in Budapest is quoting Financial Times that the EU Commission is about to announce a plan to force those member states that refuse to take in refugees allocated to them through a mandatory quota system to pay a penalty of €0.25 million per refugee. Most probably, this would no...

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​Turkish politics to remain under heavy fog
TURKEY - In Brief 04 May 2016 1 response
I don’t intend to turn this website into a daily blog, but stability in Turkish politics is evaporating very rapidly. I felt it incumbent upon myself to warn my readers that according to some news outlets premier Davutoglu might offer his resignation to president Erdogan tonight. While I find the...

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Disinflation Illusion Continues
TURKEY - Report 03 May 2016
Consumer price inflation surprised once again on the downside in April, coming in at a better than expected 0.8%, m/m, thanks to a very sharp fall in food inflation – the latter constituting the best April on record, since the new series began in 2003. Twelve-month CPI-inflation hence dropped fur...

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A hike announcing future hikes
VENEZUELA - Report 03 May 2016
As we anticipated, on April 30 President Maduro announced a 30 percent minimum wage effective on May 1. This is the first time since 2008 that a hike is enacted on May 1 without announcing further steps. We hold to our view that there will be four wage hikes this year, and Maduro’s statement that...