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Mid-Week Update
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2020

I have not titled this Market Brief, because too many issues are on the agenda of the markets, which makes it very difficult to find a common threat to express in a brief headline. They are mostly negative. These are Idlib, Libya, Covid-19 CBRT head Uysal’s speech Bursa Joint Chambers of Industry...

Chile: Winter is coming
CHILE · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020

The phrase, made popular by the series Game of Thrones, relates to the call to be prepared for the hardships of winter. Although most of Chile is still enjoying warm summer temperatures, the beginning of March, associated with students returning to class, is a reminder that winter is indeed comin...

Review of the inflation targeting framework
INDIA · Report · 25 Feb 2020

Inflation targeting began in India in February 2015. It was the first time in India’s history that the central bank had an objective: prior to this, it followed a “multiple objectives, multiple indicators, multiple instruments” approach that constituted all discretion and no rules. The first f...

Saudis might end oil solidarity with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020

On February 20 the Wall Street Journal claimed that the Saudis are mulling whether to sever its oil production pact with Russia. The Russians have declined to reduce oil production in view of coronavirus. Russia is not in OPEC but is in OPEC+. Riyadh asked that production be cut by 600 000 bpd. C...

Correa's chances for 2021 are still alive
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Feb 2020

The political party that supports Correa, Fuerza Compromiso Social, was able to maintain its electoral participation for 2021. Thus, even though Correa cannot run for president in the upcoming election, he could register his name for vice president. However, his chances are at odds with the ac...

Belarus and Russia close to agreement on oil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020 · 1 response

On February 21 an agreement was reached in principle regarding oil prices. President Lukashenko of Belarus met the Governor of Archangelsk - a Russian city. Russian oil companies will sell oil to Belarus at a discount of USD 2 per ton. This will still leave Belarus worse off than before. Neverthe...

Current VP Cedeño appointed as PLD vice presidential candidate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020

Yesterday, Gonzalo Castillo, the PLD presidential candidate announced that his ballot companion would be the current vice president Margarita Cedeño. The announcement was surprising and helps to energize the PLD, which has been on the defensive in recent weeks. Cedeño is very popular. Surveys sho...

US says it carried out nuclear attack drill
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020

On February 21 the Pentagon announced that it recently conducted a practice nuclear attack on Russia. It was unusual of the US to have announced this. Russian politicians have riposted by saying that the US action is aggressive and bound to heighten tensions.The United States disturbed Moscow ear...

Economics: Clash of views on energy policy
MEXICO · Report · 24 Feb 2020

Pemex’s performance in the coming months remains the determining factor for the future of Mexico’s economy. During the Energy Mexico 2020 Congress, specialists and sector representatives of the oil, gas, power and renewables industries conducted a thorough analysis of the state of both internatio...

​OMAN: Hopeful signs in Sultan Haitham’s first speech
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Feb 2020 · 1 response

On February 23, following the end of the 40-day mourning period, Sultan Haitham made his first policy speech to the nation. It was broadcast live on TV, and there were some positive reactions from locals in Oman. As would be expected, the speech lacks many specifics, and it certainly doesn’t lay ...

Politics: Bringing business to heel
MEXICO · Report · 24 Feb 2020

A unique dinner party reported by the media that took place at the National Palace nine days ago embodied the curiously ambiguous relationship President Manuel Andrés López Obrador has established with Mexico’s business class. The country’s wealthiest and most powerful business leaders were in at...

No further steps from the MNB to tighten liquidity today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2020

At today's weekly FX swap tender, the MNB sold HUF 77bn of new swaps, implying that the stock of outstanding swaps will remain essentially unchanged at HUF 1942bn, given an almost equal amount of maturities. This seems to mean that the Bank intends to refrain from further steps to tighten liquidi...

Rethinking growth in 2020
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 Feb 2020 · 5 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: • COVID-19 will probably not reduce China’s GDP growth in 2020 but will instead shift growth from “high quality” to “low quality” areas as the government compensates later this year for any slowdown by increasing discretionary spending. This of course h...

Rates on hold, but door left open for future accomodation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Feb 2020

Rates will remain on hold for now. The MPC noted that inflation continues to be low, January's CPI surprised on the low side, and both headline and core inflation have moderated, but the MPC sees this is due mostly to shekel appreciation. They are also aware that y/y inflation may be negative in ...

Russian economic trends: The economy is not what it seems
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Feb 2020

As the Russian economy reportedly grew by a mere 1.3% in 2019, and this rate of growth looks much lower than the revised 2.5% in 2018, the key question now is not only what has caused this deceleration but also where the economy is heading in 2020. Rosstat reported that industrial output was ...

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