RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 24 Jun 2013

Today is the first day for Elvira Nabiullina as a new head of CBR. She gave a lengthy interview to Kommersant, influential business daily, on her views on monetary policy and future plans (http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2218708). The main message of an interview is that Ms Nabiullina supports polic...

TURKEY - Report 23 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryWe know our readers have their hands full with bigger issues like China, Brazil and the QE exit, so to save on reading time, we summarized our baseline political scenarios in light of some FAQs:Gezi Parki and related demonstrations: 55% chance they will wind down over the summer,...

VENEZUELA - In Brief 21 Jun 2013

The Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ), headed by Gladys Ramirez, president of TSJ, announced its decision to hear all the cases related to the impugnation of the 14 April 2013 presidential election, until now in the hands of the Electoral Chamber.Henrique Capriles we...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 21 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe latest research from CNI/IBOPE, conducted before the outbreak of demonstrations across the country that began on June 13, showed a decline in the positive evaluation of Dilma Rousseff's government, with approval falling from 63% to 55%. Furthermore, for the first time since D...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 19 Jun 2013

According to the quarterly bulletin of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the deficit on the current account narrowed in the first quarter of 2013, an indication of a resurgence in export activity. Consequently, the ratio of the current account balance to the gross domestic product was-5.8% i...

TURKEY - Report 18 Jun 2013

The Monetary Policy Committee left all rates as well as all other levers of monetary policy (reserve ratios, ROCs, etc.) untouched, exactly in line with the consensus (see graph). The statement was also the plainest we've read in a long time.As before, the Bank reiterated that domestic demand is ...

MEXICO - Report 18 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryLast week, Mexico's federal government announced that it intends to issue one trillion pesos (roughly USD 78.8 billion) in loans through the country's development banks over the course of 2013. Officials report that this sum would mark a real 10% increase in such credit compared ...

MEXICO - Report 18 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe poor showing of the Mexican economy during the first months of the year could have significant political repercussions as voters prepare to head to the polls in 14 states this July 7. The wave of optimism the PRI was riding as it took office last December – polls at the time ...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Jun 2013

A series of demonstrations that began in São Paulo last week, originally against the readjustment of bus fares, is growing in size as it spreads across the country. On Monday night, according to the Datafolha Institute, about 65,000 people attended the demonstration in Brasilia. In Rio de Janeiro...

TURKEY - In Brief 17 Jun 2013

Small scale clashes lasted throughout the night across Turkey. A sympathy strike by left-leaning unions and professional associations drew in crowds, but excitement was notably lacking. These are critical days, if the protests wind down under their own weight, fine. The markets are likely to forg...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 17 Jun 2013

The data for the first quarter of 2013 show that the deceleration of GDP growth came from slower growth of household consumption and increased net imports. The positive surprise was fixed capital investments. The monthly figures on production of capital goods and construction materials, and the q...

TURKEY - Report 16 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryPrime Minister Erdogan's order for police to forcefully vacate the Gezi Parki prolonged the crisis, turning into an uprising by various segments of the society.The most likely summer scenario, unfortunately, seems to be a continuation of unrest.It is also not feasible to deliver ...

PHILIPPINES - Report 14 Jun 2013

Just two weeks after the government announced much-better-than-expected 7.8% GDP growth in 1Q2013, which bucked the regional growth slowdown, local stock prices grabbed headlines with the worst one-day dive since the Lehman crisis in October 2008.Many were stunned by the steep fall, especially fo...

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 14 Jun 2013

V. Putin officially presented yesterday the Address on a meeting with the Government, Presidential Administration, CBR and Duma leaders (http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/5581). Budget Policy Address is an official document signed by the President. It can be seen as a guide to the Government on fiscal p...

TURKEY - In Brief 14 Jun 2013

Party spokesperson H. Celik announced that a.      As long the current injunction by court on reconstruction in Gezi Parki stands, the government will not raze the parkb.      Regardless of the final court verdict a plescibite will be heldIn return AKP wants protestors to vacate the Gezi Park. Ye...