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Peru: Turning more optimistic on economic performance
PERU · In Brief · 27 Nov 2020

With more information following the swearing-in of President Francisco Sagasti and his first announcements, we have decide to revised up our forecast. We are raising our real GDP growth forecast to -12.4%y/y in 2020 from a previous of -13.9%y/y discussed in our latest GSP report; and to 9.7%y/y f...

Banking sector: Deposit outflow may be a potential problem
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2020

Interest rates on ruble retail deposits started to climb in November. The maximum rate among the top 10 banks exceeded 4.5% for first time since early August. This fact may indicate certain structural problems in the sector. The volume of retail deposits is declining, reflecting the relocation of...

​GULF WEEKLY: Oil rallies, Dubai & Oman tap bonds, Bibi visits MBS
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Nov 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil touched $49, the highest since the March OPEC+ meeting, ahead of the next key meeting. We anticipate a 3-month delay to the 2m b/d taper. * MBS hosted Israel’s prime m...

No sign of progress at yesterday's meeting of the prime ministers of Hungary and Poland
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Nov 2020

PM Orbán and Polish PM Morawieczki met in Budapest yesterday, to discuss the situation around the two governments' veto on the EU's fiscal package. A statement with an explicit proposal was issued after the meeting, but in our view the latter did not take the issue any closer to a positive outcom...

Argentina 2021: a slow recovery and higher inflation
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 27 Nov 2020

Our forecast for the Argentine economy in 2021 differs significantly from the official forecast in the 2021 Budget Law. We forecast a slower recovery of GDP growth and a significantly higher rate of inflation than that projected by the authorities. At the same time, we expect a slightly lower pri...

Strict lockdown is on agenda
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Nov 2020

The Cabinet intends to impose new strict lockdown for the New Year holidays, approximately from the mid of December till the mid of January. COVID-19 incidences have already exceeded 16000 cases per day and healthcare system barely proceeds the flow of heavy cases. The Minister of healthcare alre...

India to make 100 million doses of Russian coronavirus vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2020

On November 27 Russia announced that the Sputnik V vaccine will be made by Hetero. The Indian drug maker will manufacture 100 million doses. Sputnik V will be produced in Brazil, China and South Korea.The Russian Direct Investment Fund is part funding this. Production will commence early in 2021....

​Turkey’s Covid-19 outbreak: The truth comes out and it’s scary
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Nov 2020 · 1 response

There are some predictions Iwish I had gotten wrong, as it happens to me in 90% of cases. This is one of them. Pressured by the health community and the opposition, Health Minister Mr. Fahrettin Koca began announcing Covid-19 “case” numbers rather than “patients”. Overnight, Turkey’s cases-cum-pa...

Azerbaijan outraged at French Senate endorsing Nagorno Karabakh independence
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2020

On November 26 Baku demanded that France be expelled from the Minsk Group. The group consists of France, Russia and the USA, The OSCE controls the Minsk Group. France is more sympathetic to Armenia than any other Western country.The French Senate proposed that Nagorno Karabakh be recognized as in...

Russia fires new hypersonic missile
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2020

On November 26 a Tsirkon missile was fired from a warship: Russia proudly announced. The missile traveled at Mach 8 and hit a target in the White Sea 450 km from its launch.Putin said that Russia might be obliged to station Tsirkon missiles close to the US coast if an arms control agreement is no...

Facebook fined for not sharing data with Russian Government
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Nov 2020

On November 26 Facebook paid a USD 53,000 fine because it was not obeying a data localization rule. The fine is worth 90 seconds of profit. Facebook is booming in Russia. The 2016 law obliges all foreign tech companies to store data on Russian residents on servers in Russia. The Kremlin's critics...

RCEP the largest free-trade deal in history
CHINA · Report · 26 Nov 2020

Growth is strong. In October, industrial output rose 6.9% y/y, the same rate as in September, and the highest rate this year, up 2.2 pps from October 2019. The national service production index has been rising since the economic opening in February, and achieved positive growth in May. It rose 7....

Rosneft starting new Arctic project
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Nov 2020

On November 25 Rosneft announced new operations in the Russian Far North. Environmentalists have denounced this. Rosneft's CEO Igor Sechin informed the president in person. Putin recently signed a new law expediting further investments in the Arctic. The two men are very close.A 770 km pipeline a...

IMF advises Russia to prolong coronavirus support
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Nov 2020

IMF advises Russia to prolong coronavirus support packageOn November 25 the IMF praised Russia's handling of the economic fallout from coronavirus. The IMF suggested that the government show greater liberality in social support spending.The IMF said that Russia's fiscal conservatism had put it in...

Hungary prospects for 2021 depend on vaccines and EU talks
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Nov 2020

Finance minister Varga spoke yesterday on Hungary's economic prospects, in the context of a three-year fiscal plan that the government is currently working on. He said that for 2020 they expect -6.4% GDP growth, a fiscal deficit of 9% of GDP and an end-year debt ratio of 78-80%. For 2021, there i...

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