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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian weapons sales booming
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2021

On March 12 Moscow announced that its arms exports are selling well. The Federal Service for Military Technical Cooperation said that in 2020 the country sold USD 50-55 billion of arms.Sales in 2020 were 15% down YoY. This sector was impacted less by the pandemic than any other.

​Covid watch (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Mar 2021

The uptrend in new covid19 cases continued this week with the case count exceeding 4,500 on Friday. New cases rose 46% week-on-week based on 7-day averages with Metro Manila seeing much higher case growth. The overall positivity rate is now over 10% and the reproduction number estimated at 1.2 fr...

Inflation continues to slow
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Mar 2021

Inflation slowed to 16 percent month on month in February, down from 50 percent in January and below our forecast of 34 percent. Driving the slowdown were government austerity and exchange rate stability. In our central forecast scenario, we assume that the government will continue to dampen i...

Russian food exports broke records in 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2021

On March 9 RBC published an Agriculture Ministry report on this. It showed that the country exported USD 30.7 billion of comestibles. That is 20% up YoY. That was 79 million tons. The major foodstuffs exported are grain, meat, fish, vegetables and dairy products. In 2020 there was a bumper harves...

South Africa’s current account balance records an annual surplus for the first time in 20 years
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Mar 2021

The current account data released today by the South African Reserve Bank shows that South Africa’s current account recorded another considerable surplus during the fourth quarter of 2020. Still, the surplus narrowed from R294.4 billion in the third quarter to R197.8 billion, making it the second...

Bad loans and the AMCs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Mar 2021

There is a longstanding debate about the size of bad loans in China’s banking system. The shortage of data has made it difficult for external analysts to arrive at a comprehensive number that would clarify the banks’ actual financial position. The level of non-performing loans (NPLs) within...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit hit $78bn, GDP data for UAE & Kuwait, Covid gets political in Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Mar 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * Saudi Arabia’s deficit more than doubled to $78bn despite above-budget non-oil revenue. * Spending was up by 2% y/y due to Covid, but salaries and capex were cut in line with plans. * Saudi Arabia lifted most Covi...

Russian nickel company pays USD 2 billion in compensation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2021

On March 10 Nornickel paid its fine for causing an environmental cataclysm. The accident in April 2020 impacted the Norilsk Region. The funds were paid to the Federal budget. Norilsk will receive less than 1% of the monies. Environmentalists lambasted the Kremlin for paying only a derisory fracti...

Russian corporations were profitable in 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Mar 2021

Financial data from 2020 was published by Rosstat on March 9 proving that almost every major Russian coporation made a profit. The government's fateful decision to eschew a second lockdown paid dividends economically. However, the price for that has been 400,000 excess deaths. Corporate profits w...

Decent fiscal performance in 2m21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Mar 2021

The Ministry of Finance reported that in February total federal budget revenues reached R1.25 trln ow which R0.545 trln came in as the oil-and-gas prices. Even though the Urals oil price in February 2021 was higher than in February 2020 ($60.78/bbl versus $54.24/bbl), oil-and-gas revenues in Febr...

South Africa’s economy recovered during H2-2020, but not enough to avert the 7% total GDP decline in 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Mar 2021

Real GDP, arguably the most noteworthy economic metric, indicates that South Africa continued its recovery in the fourth quarter of 2020, registering a growth rate of 6.3% quarter on quarter on an annualized basis. This also marked a somewhat return to "normal" annualized GDP prints following the...

Balance of payments strengthens in early 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2021

According to the CBR’s preliminary estimates, Russia’s current account surplus was at $13.1bn in 2m21, while the trade surplus reached $17.6bn. The latter figure is equal to the combined trade surplus in November and December 2020. The CBR has not yet published statistics on exports and imports –...

Russia slows Twitter due to content dispute
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2021

On March 9 Twitter feeds were slowed down. The government is angry that Twitter has not been removing prohibited content. The Russian Communications Authority announced that it had taken this action. Twitter has been slowed on all cellphones and 50% of computers.Twitter has been fined in relation...

Russian food prices rising
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2021

On March 8 the Russian Statistics Agency published data showing that comestible prices are seeing inflation-busting increases. In February 2021 consumer prices went up 5.7% YoY. The food price rise was 7.7% YoY. Food prices have been rising worldwide. In Russia in 2020 food prices went up 6.7%. F...

​The Lula effect and the 2022 election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2021 · 1 response

The decision by Minister Edson Fachin, of the Federal Supreme Court, which places Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the presidential race, obviously changes the scenario. Despite the disorganization on the left, Lula has a strong potential to unite political forces, including those to his right on ...

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