VENEZUELA - Report 10 Dec 2013

Winners and losers Nicolas Maduro and PSUV are clear winners in the December 8 municipal elections. They have good reasons to celebrate even if the joy was not complete. According to the National Electoral Council, PSUV led the national vote count by a 6.5 percent margin over the opposition coali...

TURKEY - In Brief 10 Dec 2013

Turkish GDP growth was 4.4% in Q3, y/y, which was higher than forecasts (notably our softer forecast), but composition, though improved over a quarter ago, still leaves a lot to be desired. Growth appears to be driven by private consumption and stock build up, with net exports shaving off some 2....

TURKEY - In Brief 09 Dec 2013

Ergenekon convict, journalist and CHP Izmir deputy Mr. Mustafa Balbay was released from an Ankara correctional facility today, as a lower court agreed with the Constitutional Court that his right to a free and fair trial had been violated. In the last Weekly Tracker I had bet against his release,...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Dec 2013

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The GDP result for the third quarter put paid to optimism regarding Brazilian growth. Not only have the perspectives worsened for 2013; the outlook is now more likely for mediocre growth in 2014. If we take stock prices as a leading indicator of growth, they point to acceleratio...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Dec 2013

Between December 2012 and the end of last October, the current account deficit rose from US$ 54.2 billion, or 2.4% of GDP, to US$ 82.2 billion, or 3.7% of GDP (Graph 1). The worsening of the current accounts closely follows the decline of the trade balance, which are near zero and are only not wo...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 09 Dec 2013

The passing of new South Africa’s founding president, Nelson Mandela, affectionately known as Madiba, is yet another remarkable moment in the country’s young democratic dispensation. Once again, the nation has arisen to defy all predictions of chaos and negativity – instead unifying across all ra...

SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 09 Dec 2013

The passing of new South Africa’s founding president, Nelson Mandela, affectionately known as Madiba, is yet another remarkable moment in the country’s young democratic dispensation. Once again, the nation has arisen to defy all predictions of chaos and negativity-instead unifying across all raci...

MEXICO - In Brief 08 Dec 2013 1 response

The long wait is over. PAN and PRI have presented a draft of the energy reform that is currently being discussed in the Senate, where the debate is expected to continue until Monday, before it passes to the Chamber of Deputies. It is a bold proposal that allows for private investment in power pro...

TURKEY - Report 08 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Last Monday AKP extended an olive branch to the Gulen Church by delaying the closure of private tutoring schools for two years. This gesture may reduce the “headline” risk, but mutual sniping and harping continues, suggesting a permanent rift. There are very few election polls, ...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 06 Dec 2013

Executive Summary In this report, we present a new leading indicator of economic activity in Brazil. Its most important characteristic is to forecast the turning points of economic cycles. Our methodology follows that of the OECD. In constructing our indicator, we started with 52 candidate variab...

PERU - Report 06 Dec 2013

Executive Summary New Prime Minister Cesar Villanueva, quite successful as president of the San Martin region at eradicating coca leaf crops, has been lauded for his hands-on approach to governance. That will be a refreshing change, as Villanueva’s predecessor seemed uncomfortable with decision-m...

INDIA - In Brief 06 Dec 2013

When India brought back restrictions against legal gold imports earlier this year, there was a surge of capital and labour devoted to criminal organisations. The decline of official gold imports, from $16.5B in the June quarter to $3.5B in the September quarter, most likely went with a surge in b...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 05 Dec 2013

Putin’s personal involvement and intense economic handwringing in Ukrainian–EU relations allowed him to halt and postpone the Association agreement. However, his goal is beyond that, as Russia is trying all means to coerce Ukraine into joining the Customs Union. The Russian leadership has much ec...

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 05 Dec 2013

Government reported today an P11.2 billion deficit in October bringing the year-to-date overall deficit to P112.5 billion, less than half the programmed P238 billion deficit for the year.  Year-on-year changes in October revenues were flat, with growth in BIR collections slowing to 11% vs. over 2...

VENEZUELA - Report 04 Dec 2013

What’s at stake? Chavismo currently controls 85 % of the municipalities in the country (284 out of 335). In all likelihood, it will continue controlling a significant majority of municipalities after December 8. In our view, three indicators will be used to measure success in the upcoming electio...