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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Weathering a rather easy coronavirus crisis
UKRAINE · Forecast · 01 Jul 2020

The first phase of the COVID-19 crisis was soft for Ukraine. The global lockdown did the job currency shocks used to do for the country in the past. As a result, imports have fallen much faster than exports, as supply chains broke and energy prices fell. This translated into an impressive balance...

Unemployment and Decotelli´s resignation put more strain on the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jun 2020

Data released today by the National Continuous Monthly Household Survey (PNAD Continuous) of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) shows that the unemployment rate rose to 12.9% in the three-month period ending in May, reaching 12.7 million people. According to the survey, in...

Covid-19 extends South Africa’s H2-2019 technical recession into the first quarter of 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Jun 2020

Real GDP growth declined by 2% in the first quarter of 2020 on a quarter-on-quarter basis. This follows contractions of 0.8% q/q and 1.4% q/q, respectively, during the third and fourth quarters of 2019. Consequently, the technical recession that South Africa entered into during the last half of 2...

SAUDI: Private-sector GDP down about -10% m/m in March
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jun 2020 · 1 response

On June 30, Saudi Arabia was the first Gulf state to publish Q1 real GDP data (GAS). The headline figure is a -1.0% y/y contraction (-4.6% oil, +1.6% non-oil), compared with -0.3% y/y in Q4, or a seasonally adjusted contraction of -0.4% q/q. On the surface, this may seem like a much smaller impac...

The MNB is reducing liquidity through moderate withdrawals of FX swaps
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jun 2020

The stock of the MNB's 'fine-tuning' FX swaps essentially did not move between end-April and early last week: the outstanding stock decreased just marginally, from HUF 1929bn to HUF 1922bn in this period. But then, on June 22's tender, the stock was reduced to HUF 1884bn and on June 29, it was cu...

Russia to allow e visas to boost tourism
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jun 2020

On June 29 Russian Parliament approved a law allowing people from 53 countries to obtain a tourist visa online. The scheme takes effect on January 1 2021. Current tourist visas are expensive and time consuming to obtain. The e-visa will only be valid to visit Moscow, St Petersburg and part of the...

Minister of Education´s inauguration postponed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jun 2020

The Ministry of Education continues to cause problems for President Jair Bolsonaro. Carlos Alberto Decotelli, appointed to the position last week, had his inauguration ceremony – scheduled for tomorrow, June 30 – postponed after revelations of inconsistencies in his resume. At the Planalto Palace...

​Indonesia: Maintaining the social fabric during the pandemic
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Jun 2020

Covid-19 has hit not only​ the health of the people, but also their welfare. Particularly in Indonesia, where the informal economy remains large, the implementation of restrictions on people's mobility in various areas resulted in a significant hit to their income. With the prospect of their inco...

Beijing’s new Covid-19 outbreak
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jun 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • China’s gradual economic recovery from the ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic was interrupted two weeks ago by reports of a new outbreak in Beijing. I have no especial expertise in epidemiology, but given the extent of Beijing’s reaction, I do not expec...

The emergency aid battle and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jun 2020

The mid-year recess of the Judiciary begins on Friday, July 3. In the Lower House, deputies will continue the vote on Provisional Measure no. 944, which concerns credit lines to finance companies’ payrolls. In the Senate, the highlight is the bill on fake news. There is pressure to include the bi...

The pandemic takes its toll
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jun 2020

Costa Rica’s second wave of the pandemic is on its way, as happened in other countries after restrictive measures were relaxed. The gradual reopening plan begun at the end of May was interrupted June 19th, after a hike of non-clustered cases, the most worrying indicator of eventual massive contag...

Politics: AMLO campaigns, Morena struggles
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jun 2020 · 1 response

With a drastic worsening of economic, political, public health and social conditions potentially jeopardizing his party’s chances next year, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador unofficially began campaigning, with visits to the states beginning June 1, many months before candidates for public o...

The Consensus and the IMF Projections: Which Is Most Realistic?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jun 2020

Last week the IMF published new projections for growth in 2020 and 2021, with marked reductions, conflicting with the “optimism” indicated by the appreciation of stock prices in the United States, Europe and Brazil. According to the fundamentals, the prices of shares reflect the present value of ...

Economics: Indicators confirm worsening in key economic sectors
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jun 2020

Economic news published in June confirmed expectations of a rapidly deteriorating economic situation. Although the Mexican economy had already been suffering negative results for several months, beginning in the second half of March that downtrend was aggravated by the Covid-19 effect, with readi...

The pandemic hit the real economy and the fiscal situation harder than anticipated. Banks face a year of living dangerously…while the PRD Party (in power) criticizes Cortizo.
PANAMA · Report · 29 Jun 2020

The government's estimate of a GDP contraction of 3.3 percent for 2020 (projected in March by the MEF) seems optimistic now, because the economy is in a virtual shutdown of more than fifty percent of real activity, with no date in sight for further re-openings. Unemployment may double by the end ...

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