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​Gulf in panic: Crude and equities crash, and Saudi princes arrested
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 08 Mar 2020 · 1 response

Oil drops by $10 to the lowest since February 2016 as the OPEC+ deal collapses.A sustained oil dip poses serious risks for Oman, Bahrain and even Saudi Arabia.Gulf equities suffered one of their biggest routs on Sunday, including Saudi down 8.3%.The arrest of senior Saudi royals mitigates risks t...

Slowing growth and political instability will likely delay fiscal consolidation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Mar 2020

Recent economic data remain fairly positive, for now: The Business Sector Tendency Survey in February continues to point to expectations for expansion in most sectors, excluding incoming tourism. The Poalim consumer confidence index increased in February. Tax revenue growth in February point to s...

Shaky economics, shoddy ceasefires
TURKEY · Report · 08 Mar 2020

An uneasy calm prevails in the Syrian Province of Idlib, as a result of a ceasefire deal brokered by Messrs. Putin and Erdogan, which few experts expect to last. Turkey is clearly the loser in the resulting arrangement, which consolidates the territorial gains of Assad regime and keeps scared ref...

Russia disagrees with OPEC on production cut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2020

On March 6 Russia and OPEC agreed to disagree on pumping less oil. OPEC will produce 1.5 bpd less than before. The OPEC cuts take effect on April 1 and will run to the end of 2020 unless some change is agreed.Russia is not in OPEC but is in OPEC +. Coronavirus has driven down demand. This has hit...

Russia to allow women to work in previously all male roles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2020

On March 6 it was announced that Russia will end the ban on women working in 356 roles. Presently women are forbidden to be truck drivers, train drivers, automotive mechanics, sailors etc ... The rules date to the Soviet era and are intended to protect female reproductive health. The new rules co...

​A flux economic environment
ARGENTINA · Report · 07 Mar 2020

In this report, we are going to review some of the primary political expressions of the last weeks, such as President Alberto Fernández's (AF) statements to Congress during the opening of this year's ordinary sessions and Martin Guzman economic presentation, also made to Congress. The aim is to h...

Tinkoff shares hit by his extradition proceedings
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Mar 2020

On March 6 shares in credit card supplier fell sharply because its owner Oleg Tinkov has been charged with fraud in the United States. Tinkoff is in London fighting extradition. Tinkoff Credit Systems Group (TCS) lost 17% on the London Stock Exchange and 24% in Moscow. Tinkov annouced that he is ...

​Gulf weekly: Russia quits OPEC+, Oman downgraded, coronavirus spreads, rates cut
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Mar 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Russia rejected a proposal to extend and expand the OPEC+ oil cuts, crashing prices. * The coronavirus spread to all Gulf states, an...

Ukrainian Prosecutor-General replaced
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

On March 5 the Ukrainian Parliament voted to dismiss the Prosecutor-General Ruslan Ryaboshapka. President Zelensky only appointed him 7 months ago. Zelensky's part Servant of the People was only fairly loyal on this issue. 179/248 Servant of the People deputies voted for the dismissal. The Opposi...

​Biden’s Gulf policies would differ from Trump, but by less than other candidates
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Mar 2020

The consolidation of the Democratic primary around Joe Biden, now almost certain to be the nominee, simplifies the (significant) implications of the elections for the Gulf outlook. Trump is still the favorite, but Biden's policies would offer greater continuity for the Gulf than those of some of ...

Fallout from the coronavirus in the former USSR
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2020

The coronavirus has affected the former USSR countries in a serious way. This report explores the degree of the impact of the virus on each of the Former Soviet Union countries, including on trade and activity.​​

OPEC believed to have decided on cut; Russia unclear on cut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

On March 5 it was reported by Bloomberg that OPEC has secretly decided on a 1.5 million bpd production cut. It is uncertain if Russia, which is not an OPEC member, agrees. Since the start of 2020 oil prices are down over 20%. This is because of coronavirus. The price is about USD 50 per barrel. A...

Pushing on a string in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Mar 2020

Will China flood the economy with capital to engineer a rapid rebound from the virus? This seems to be the assumption among investors on and offshore about the Chinese markets. I remain skeptical that a big stimulus will be effective due to the increasing inefficiency of stimulus measures in the ...

Recent difficulties India faces
INDIA · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

In 2020, the Indian government has been grappling with four challenges:The political conflict associated with the citizenship question,The financial crisis, where Yes Bank has particularly been under stress,The problems of telecom, where Vodafone has particularly been under stress,Covid-19.In thi...

Erdogan & Putin sign ceasefire in Idlib, will it last?
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

After six and a half hours of negotiations, Erdogan and Putin failed to agree on most points of contention concerning Idlib, but preferred to prioritize their strategic alliance. The result is a cease-fire protocol, which calls for division of Idlib into two de-facto zones of control, belonging t...

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