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Russia consumer spending down
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2020

On Black Friday there was a 39% YoY fall in spending in stores. By contrast some e-commerce sites reported sales bonanzas. Online shopping was 61% more than on a typical Friday. That is still not enough to compensate the retail sector for the collapse in in-person shopping. Wildberries and Ozon a...

An imminent breakthrough on the Qatar rift is possible but unlikely
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Nov 2020

* A regional visit by Jared Kushner has raised hopes of a breakthrough on the rift, although he is more focused on the Israel normalization push. * The best outcome, still unlikely, is an easing of the airspace blockade by Saudi Arabia. * For Saudi Arabia a resolution could help ease tensions w...

Politics: The government’s skewed budget priorities
MEXICO · Report · 30 Nov 2020

Following the adage that one discerns a government’s priorities not from its speeches but from its budgets, the first conclusion we can draw from the 2021 spending budget is that the health, economic and security crises plaguing the country have failed to move President López Obrador enough to ma...

Economics: A harsh labor outlook for year-end 2020
MEXICO · Report · 30 Nov 2020

Labor market data for the third quarter of 2020 offers an initial glimpse of the extent to which household economies grew increasingly precarious after the Mexican economy experienced its most pronounced contraction on record in 2Q20. The glimpse is initial because the data is somewhat distorted ...

UK labs say Russian coronavirus vaccine works
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Nov 2020

On November 29 a British lab said that Sputnik V is ''reasonably effective''. Professor Ian Jones of the University of Reading approved the vaccine. There are still some doubts over the data supplied.Professor Evans at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine also voice confidence in th...

Sharp rise in private investment worries Russian authorities
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Nov 2020

Retail investors have started investing in stocks as they seek better returns due to ever reducing bank interest rates. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is perturbed that this will jeopardize the financial sector.There has been high inflation since the early 1990s. There have been high bank depos...

Credit stress in large private firms - an update
INDIA · Report · 30 Nov 2020

In this report, we review the state of credit stress in large private firms. Given the debt moratoriums and the suspension of the bankruptcy process, a good deal of the bad news is not visible in conventional accounting data. The Merton/KMV model exploits the level and volatility of stock prices,...

A surplus in the current account
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Nov 2020

Indonesia has already seen the painful impact of the pandemic on its economic growth. For the first time since the Asian Crisis in 1998, when the economy declined by 14%, the Indonesian economy declined, by 5.32% in Q2 2020 after positive growth of 2.97% in Q1 2020. In Q3 2020, the Indonesian eco...

​Q3 GDP: Strong rebound, at a steep cost
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2020 · 1 response

Following a sharp, pandemic-driven drop in the second quarter (9.9%, y/y), GDP surged by a higher than expected 6.7% in the third quarter vs consensus forecast of around 5-5.5%, thanks, chiefly, to the unlocking of the economy in the summer months, and extremely strong loan growth. In working day...

BoI: no surprises here
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Nov 2020

As expected, policy rates remained unchanged today at 0.1%. In the monetary statement, the MPC stressed the uncertainty of future growth, and when Israel will receive the vaccine. Recovery in the labor market will be prolonged. The second closure was less severe than the first, but opening up has...

Policy tweaks help but won’t lead to growth
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Nov 2020

After two years of restrictive and contractionary central bank policies to rein in hyperinflation, the Maduro government seems to be shifting away from that single-minded focus and looking for ways get the economy growing after seven years of recession. It began to loosen bank reserve requirement...

Q&A on the matter of congressional elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Nov 2020 · 1 response

After the municipal elections, Congress enters the final weeks of legislative activity before the recess. The report on Tax Reform may be presented in the Joint Congressional Committee. In the Senate, the negotiations around the constitutional amendment on fiscal triggers may advance. The Federal...

Defaults in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Nov 2020

The recent wave of defaults has raised questions about China’s support for the state sector. It is unusual for Beijing to allow state firms to default on their bond or debt obligations, which opens the possibility of a failure of the state sector, and thus a risk to the economy from a systemic co...

No further accommodation expected today
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Nov 2020

Recent economic indicators point to a fairly strong recovery in private consumption in November as the economy has opened up gradually. The fiscal deficit is likely to reach 11.0%-11.5% GDP this year, below the official estimate. We do not expect any additional monetary accommodation today from t...

Tough choices
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Nov 2020

Guatemala’s situation is mixed, with the economy improving but the political environment worsening. The events of November 21st and 22nd, when popular protests caused major turmoil in the capital city and some locations in the interior, including an assault on the Congress building, require atte...

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