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Essential CIS Politics: November 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Nov 2020

* A war between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended in a decisive Azeri victory. Russia intervened as a peacekeeper, preventing a total Armenian rout. * The Russian stock market and RUB experienced rosy times in mid-November on good vaccine news, although economic recovery is problematic. * Ru...

We expect modest GDP contraction of 3.5% this year
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Nov 2020

We expect a modest GDP contraction of 3.5% this year and growth of 4.8% next year. Economic indicators point to further recovery, especially in manufacturing. We expect government tradeable bond issuance in 2021 to reach around 10bn ILS per month, below that of recent months.

US pulls out of Open Skies Treaty with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Nov 2020

On November 22 the US announced that it has left the Open Skies Treaty. The treay has been in effect since 2002. It allowed Russia, the USA and various European countries to send unarmed planes over each others' territory to verify that there was no military buildup.The United States said that Ru...

Russia imposes more sanctions on the UK
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Nov 2020

On November 21 Moscow announced it was sanctioning 25 Britons. The names have not been published. London imposed similar sanctions on 25 Russians in June for alleged human rights abuses. The British citizens on the list are forbidden to enter Russia. The British sanctions on Russians included ass...

We expect modest GDP contraction of 3.5% this year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Nov 2020

Highlights: Q320 GDP growth reached 37.9% saar The level of GDP in Q320 is down only 1.4% y/y. Growth was supported by strong export growth, both industrial and hi-tech services. We expect GDP growth to decline by 3.5% this year and expand by 4.8% next year. Economic indicators continue to point ...

The proof of the pudding is...
TURKEY · Report · 22 Nov 2020

Mr. Erdogan has proven his keen political instincts and pragmatism once again, rapidly changing the mood music that has been playing non-stop in Ankara especially for the last two years. He now promises austerity, human rights reforms and better relations with the West. A significant amount of sk...

Golden visa program proposed in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2020

On November 20 Izvestia newspaper reported that the government intends to start a scheme offering permanent residency for investors. People who put at least USD 130 000 into the economy and hire at least 10 employees will be allowed to settle in the country. Russia has seen its people and money m...

SARB decides on a cautionary "wait and see" approach, keeping the repo rate unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Nov 2020

In a largely anticipated move, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has opted to keep the repo rate unchanged at the last MPC meeting of the year. This comes as two members of the committee preferred a 25-bps cut and three members voted for a hold. The decision is in line with Bloomberg economis...

​October statistics look better than expected – despite some restrictions returned
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2020

Rosstat reported that in October, the retail sales continued to catch up, and after an increase by 2.1% m-o-m, they were down by a mere 3.8% y-o-y that month and by 4.6% y-o-y in 10m20 (here and below m-o-m rates are not seasonally adjusted). Construction remained nearly flat y-o-y both in Octobe...

Partial Covid-lockdown deepens this year's economic setback
HUNGARY · Report · 20 Nov 2020

In response to a rapid spreading of the Covid-19 virus, PM Orbán eventually gave in and introduced a partial lockdown rule from November 11. This was essentially unavoidable in view of the heavy pressure mounting on available health care capacities. Previous restrictions have already started to b...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco bond, UAE OPEC exit rumors, Trump considered an Iran strike
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Nov 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ is musing a 3-6 month taper delay, and there are rumors the UAE will quit (it won’t...yet). * Trump considered a strike on Iran, while Zarif urged Biden not to wait ...

The fiscal situation − implications for the future
INDIA · Report · 20 Nov 2020

Some measures of the fiscal situation for the first half of 2020-21 are now visible. Gross tax revenues of the union government were down by 21.6%, spending by the union government was flat, and the gap was made up using an increase in borrowing. This has induced daunting levels of borrowing per ...

How to think about China’s GDP growth in 2021
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Nov 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Analysts are beginning to project a very strong recovery for Chinese growth next year based on their models for consumption growth. These were the same models that predicted earlier this year that 2020 GDP growth rates would be close to zero or substa...

Russia building high speed internet in the Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Nov 2020

On November 17 the government announced that high speed internet is being built to assist ports as well as hydrocarbon companies in the far north. Trans Arctic underwater fiber optic cable will go from Murmansk to Vladivostok. The objective is to set up a digital infrastructure to facilitate comm...

Dominican Government sent to Congress the addendum of 2021 Public Budget Bill and maintains the fiscal deficit target
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Nov 2020

At the beginning of the week, the Dominican government sent to the National Congress the addendum to the Public Sector Budget Bill for 2021, in which it formally withdraws the proposal to increase transitory taxes to be applied during 2021. Instead, the DOP25 .9 b that the Government was planning...

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