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Household debt and the shadow banking market in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Jul 2020

China’s recovery will depend on the ability of households to continue to consume. However, over the past several years, household debt has climbed steadily. This particularly includes mortgage debt. Meanwhile, investments in shadow banking through Wealth Management Products have remained at high ...

Reality bites, now what?
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2020 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose at a much higher than expected 1.1% in June, with the 12-month rate increasing sharply to 12.6%, from 11.4% in May, versus our forecast of just over 12%. Domestic-PPI inflation was 0.7%, m/m, with the 12-month rate also rising to 6.2% from 5.5% a month ago, reversing the down...

Ukraine postpones Eurobond sale
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2020

On July 2 Ukraine decided to delay its USD 1.75 billion Eurobond sale due to the resignation of the head of the national bank. The government has negotiated with investors about this decision. As a result of these developments the Ukrainian currency fell to its lowest against USD since April 2020...

Bolsonaro tries to minimize wear at the Mercosur Summit
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2020

During his participation in the virtual summit of the Mercosur, President Jair Bolsonaro made an appeal to the group of leaders to guide their negotiators to make free trade agreements with the European Union (EU) and the Efta (bloc formed by Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein), and l...

A current account surplus during Q1 2020 makes it the first since 2003 for South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 02 Jul 2020

In a period that has seen a multitude of unpleasant economic numbers, including the contraction of the economy by 2% q/q, data released today by the Reserve Bank shows that South Africa’s current account was in a much healthier state as it recorded a surplus during the first quarter of 2020. The ...

ECQ, GCQ, mGCQ, etc.
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Jul 2020

Late Tuesday night, President Duterte decided to keep Metro Manila under General Community Quarantine (GCQ) for another two weeks. This, notwithstanding a plea from Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez for the country’s capital and the neighboring region of Calabarzon, together accounting for close...

Russian referendum approves constitutional amendments
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2020

On July 2 the result of the referendum was declared 78% in favour of the amendments. This allows President Putin to seek two more terms of 6 years apiece (though it is far from certain he will). It enshrines marriage as only between a man and a woman. It also underscores the supremacy of Russian ...

Head of National Bank of Ukraine resigns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2020

On July 1 Yakiv Smolii tendered his resignation as head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). He said it was because he was being prevented from doing his job effectively. Smolii lamented that the bank's independence is under threat from political pressure. NBU is the country's central bank. Com...

Pentagon’s F-35 decision: New era for Turko-American relations?
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2020

Pentagon announced on Tuesday that deliveries ofF-35 parts from Turkey will continue through 2022.Local press also expressed views that after the sacking of DA Geoffrey Berman, the ongoing Halkbank trial will be postponed to February 2021, as Judge Richard Berman is also considering a plea by Hal...

Abinader headed for a presidential victory
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 01 Jul 2020

Three recent surveys with the best track records in predicting electoral results have projected that Luís Abinader (PRM and allies) will win the July 5th presidential election, by a wide margin over Gonzalo Castillo (PLD and allies). On average, they estimate 52% of voting intentions for Abinader...

Bolsonaro unhappy with approval of the bill to fight fake news
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2020

While speaking to supporters today in front of the Alvorada Palace, President Jair Bolsonaro expressed his opposition to the approval yesterday of the bill against fake news in the Senate by stating, "The proposal should not seek to avenge." Bolsonaro stated that if the proposal also passes in th...

The Head of the NBU submitted a resignation letter
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Jul 2020

The Head of the NBU, Yakiv Smoliy, submitted a resignation letter to the President of Ukraine, according to the NBU web-site. Political pressure on the NBU impedes effective functioning of the Central bank stated at the press-release. Attempts of the NBU Council to block re-appointment of Oleg Ch...

Minfin's 3Q20 borrowing plan remains ambitious
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2020 · 1 response

The Russian Finance Ministry announced its borrowing plan for 3Q20, which assumes the issuance of OFZ worth of R1 trln. This figure can help to estimate the aggregate amount of the placements for FY’20 as traditionally, the government targets a rather even quarterly allocation of borrowing during...

The country is open to tourism
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Jul 2020

As of July 1, the Dominican Republic is open to tourism. The government has authorized the reopening of passenger flights without discrimination as to origin, and the reopening of all hotels and restaurants, which are obliged to operate under strict sanitary protocols. Despite that, the sector's ...

China virus check – week ending June 29
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Jul 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends: 1) Coal had a positive bias for the week. 2) Iron ore blast furnace operating rates trended upward but remain below year-earlier levels. 3) Traffic congestion fell slightly W/W but is above year-ago ...

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