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Country Insights

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Is Turkey’s Luck Turning?
TURKEY - Report 01 Sep 2013
Executive SummaryOur base-case fall/winter scenario on the political side entails very daunting challenges for the AKP administration, which may reverse its more than a decade old streak of good luck. Assuming President Obama does strike Syrian targets but fails to dislodge Assad, the Shia Axis c...

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Waiting for Consumption to Decelerate
CHILE - Report 30 Aug 2013
Executive Summary During the second quarter of 2013 the Chilean economy grew 4.1 percent yoy, accumulating a 4.3 percent increase in the first half of 2013. Seasonally adjusted GDP increased 0.5 percent in 2013Q2 with respect to the previous quarter, which confirm the signs of deceleration that e...

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Earning Less, Spending More
PANAMA - Report 30 Aug 2013
Executive Summary Activity cooled slightly in May, with the Monthly Economic Activity Index up 4.3% y/y, and 6.3% for the first five months of 2013. Both results were a far cry from the days of 10% growth. The most dynamic sectors over the past year were fishing, construction, mining, transport/s...

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Another Brick in the Wall
ARGENTINA - Forecast 30 Aug 2013
Executive SummaryAmid the collateral damage from a new judicial defeat in the NY courts, this report presents our forecasts for 2013 and 2014. Our main assumption is that the government will try to navigate until 2015 without making the necessary adjustments while, at the same time, avoiding sign...

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Differentiated
PHILIPPINES - Report 30 Aug 2013
The better than expected 7.5% 2Q13 growth certainly brought cheer to local stocks battered by two weeks of bad news. The main stock index rose a cumulative 6.0% in the past two days following the announcement yesterday that the local economy bested other Southeast Asian countries, where growth ra...

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When The Going Gets Tougher
COLOMBIA - Report 29 Aug 2013
Executive Summary The government and Central Bank have both cut their 2013 GDP growth forecasts – as other Latin American countries have done, given the situation up north. Even though we had initially (in July) lowered our forecast too, from 4.3% to 4%, now we’re lowering it again, to 3.6%, as r...

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2Q GDP Growth - 7.5%!
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 29 Aug 2013
Philippine economy grew 7.5% in the second quarter year-on-year, surpassing analysts' forecast, the National Statistics and Coordination Board reported Thursday. The April to June quarter figure sustained the high growth momentum of the country, the fourth straight quarter of higher than 7% growt...

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Chile: Parameters for the Construction of 2014 Fiscal Budget Released
CHILE - In Brief 28 Aug 2013
The government announced today the assumptions for the long-term price of copper and for potential GDP to be used in the construction of 2014 Fiscal Budget. The two independent external committees in charge of generating the long-term price of copper and potential output assumptions respectively ...

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Russia the Troublemaker
UKRAINE - Report 27 Aug 2013
Executive SummaryRussia is actively intimidating Ukraine, in light of the November Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, where Kyiv expects to sign the EU Association Agreement. In mid-August, Ukrainian exports were effectively stopped for one week at the Russian border. The conflict has seeming...

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PRD's Energy Reform Stand
MEXICO - Report 27 Aug 2013
Executive Summary The slackened pace of economic growth in Mexico was a constant theme of economic news last week, beginning with reports rounding out the first half of the year. During the second quarter, the Mexican economy expanded at a lackluster pace of 1.5% compared to the same period a yea...

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Update on CBT and Syria
TURKEY - Report 27 Aug 2013
Governor Basci's TV Appearance Today's TV appearance by CBT Governor Basci, which was announced last night, was targeted at improving the predictability of monetary policy, as Governor himself stated it. The market was mainly focused on the future course of monetary policy, expecting the Governor...

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Blinking in the Face of Protest
MEXICO - Report 27 Aug 2013
Executive Summary President Enrique Peña Nieto will send Congress the first State of the Nation Report of his administration next Sunday. It will provide a far more subdued assessment than one might have expected a few months ago, when Mr. Peña Nieto rode into office on a wave of domestic and int...

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Economic Growth Bounces Back in Q2 2013
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 27 Aug 2013
According to official figures released today by Statistics South Africa, the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) advanced in Q2 2013, recording 3.0% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis (q/q saa). This follows a moderation from 2.1% q/q saa in Q4 2012 to 0....

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Political Insights: Week of August 27
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 27 Aug 2013
Two items on the economic agenda will dominate the week:on Wednesday, the Central Bank is expected to announce another increase in the basic interest rate (Selic), and on Friday, the IBGE releases the second quarter GDP results. Dilma’s popularity increases to 38% The latest poll by the Ibope Ins...

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Intervention in Syria, headaches in Ankara
TURKEY - In Brief 27 Aug 2013
After the press conference by Secretary of State Kerry, where he accused Assad of using chemical weapons without a shred of doubt, the world began to take the threat of a NATO-led intervention in Syria more seriously. Pentagon let it be known, that if such a campaign were to happen, its aims will...