GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

With the publication of the latest IBC-Br, the probability has increased that GDP contracted in the last quarter of 2016, with a decline for the year of around 3.5%. Although the economy should start to recover shortly, something more will have to occur for GDP to grow more than 0.5% in 2017. In ...

Trade Blockade Aggravates Political Situation

UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Feb 2017

Surprisingly but offensive near Avdiyivka did not remove trade blockade of occupied territories from agenda. As soon as fighting eased trade blockade again took the headlines. What’s more, volunteering squads expanded their control on many other routes. Trade blockade still remains fragmentary; h...

MNB Base Rate Significantly Negative in Real Terms

HUNGARY · Report · 19 Feb 2017

As CPI-inflation rose to 2.3% in January, the MNB base rate has turned significantly negative in real terms. And inflation is expected to rise further, even if at moderate speed, throughout 2017-2018. As a result, central bank policy in the forthcoming period will have to be determined mainly by ...

Political and Economic Update

TURKEY · Report · 19 Feb 2017

The politics section starts with the summary results of recent polls, which show the Yes votes ahead by 2 percentage points or so. Other evidence points to an even closer race. AKP’s insurmountable advantages and the crackdown on No campaigners should secure the ballot for Erdogan, but it will be...

Cock Not Bull

PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 17 Feb 2017

Against a backdrop of policy uncertainties globally and locally, we are expecting GDP to grow 6.5% this year of the rooster, sliding to 6.3% next year; not quite the bullish picture that government envisions, i.e., of growth accelerating to 7-8% by 2018. Our outlook, moreover, entails a rooster...

Economics: Troubling 2016 Budget/Debt Results

MEXICO · Report · 15 Feb 2017

At the end of January the Ministry of Finance released preliminary data on the public finances for year-end 2016. The data pose many points of concern, and from various angles. It confirmed a considerable rise in financial investment (170.1%) primarily resulting from the Energy Ministry's inject...

Politics: Rules of the 2018 Candidate Game

MEXICO · Report · 15 Feb 2017 · 1 response

The basic rules are essentially in place for the presidential succession process in which Mexico will be fully immersed in less than six months, along with the corresponding congressional and local races that will be in play June 3, 2018. Opposition parties appear to have given up on proposals fo...

CNT/MDA Poll: Disapproval on the rise

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Feb 2017

The CNT/MDA poll released today shows an increase of 7.4 percentage points in negative evaluations (bad/very bad) of the Michel Temer administration. Between October 2016 and February 2017, there was a reduction of 4.3 percentage points in positive evaluations (great/good). Regular evaluations os...

Starting a New Cycle

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2017

The Russian leadership is cautiously optimistic about future relations with the United States now that Donald Trump has taken office. Although their interactions have been very limited, Moscow thinks that having a favorable bargaining position in the Middle East may result in persuading the US to...

The country is on fire, but not the economy

CHILE · Report · 14 Feb 2017

Chile is being pummeled by natural disasters. This time, more than one million acres of forest in the center and south of Chile have gone up in flames. Although the initial lag in the government's response may indicate some slow decision-making, the true culprit is a Chilean state woefully unprep...

Weaker GDP, faster inflation, little surprise

HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Feb 2017

Two important pieces of data, Q4 GDP and January inflation came out this morning. In sum, GDP growth continued to decelerate and the preliminary Q4 number was moderately weaker than expected, whereas inflation rose markedly in yoy terms, predominantly driven by rising fuel prices, and it met exac...

Inflation dynamics remain strong

VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2017

Prices are usually reset by businesses in Venezuela at the beginning of each year. In January 2017, price increases were intense reflecting expectations associated with the accelerated rise in the parallel market rate in November (+86 percent) and December (+ 52 percent) and its continued rise, ...

En route to Nicaragua?

VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2017 · 1 response

The government seems interested in having elections soon and seeks to implement conditions á la Nicaragua 2016 to ensure victory. On February 7, the National Electoral Council (CNE) convened 56 opposition parties, including all those forming the Democratic Unity Table (MUD) to re-enroll. The req...

Tense days in Syria

TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Feb 2017

First, let me give you what you need to know: Turkey’s High Election Board officially announced the referendum date as 16th of April. We have a few new polls, two of which show YES votes ahead, one the other way around. Once again, the loud agonizing streaming from the AKP and MHP camps suggests ...

New Guidelines for Credit

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Feb 2017

An important change has occurred in the government’s orientation regarding credit. Less emphasis is being given to the use of official banks, which was a marked characteristic of the economic policy in the period after the international crisis, and was intensified under the so-called “New Economi...