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Violent Threats to Governability
MEXICO - Report 08 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

In recent weeks a number of violent incidents, as well as the emergence of a student movement at the second most important public institution of higher learning in Mexico, have tested the government’s ability to guarantee the security of Mexican citizens and to avoi...


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Will the Presidency Remain Effective?
INDONESIA - Report 08 Oct 2014
Drama in Indonesian politics came again yesterday, October 7, 2014. In the election of the Speaker and the Deputies of the People’s Consultative Assembly, the political body that in the past elected the President and Vice President, Jokowi’s Camp lost. With that loss, Prabowo’s Camp has swept pra...

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​Heads up: Violent Kobane protests could shake markets
TURKEY - In Brief 07 Oct 2014

I had originally intended to update our audience with a long Market Brief on Turkey’s three conditions to deploy ground troops against ISIS. The violent protests in defense of Syrian Kurdish town Kobane that erupted across the nation last night com...


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Successfully Re-elected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 07 Oct 2014
Local elections held in a majority of Russian federal entities demonstrate complete domination by the ruling elite. Since most opposition candidates were refused registration for the election, the incumbents faced no real competition and used the current “rally ‘round the flag” support for the go...

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New SARB Governor Announced
SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 06 Oct 2014

Today, President Jacob Zuma appointed Mr. Lesetja Kganyago as the 10th South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Governor with effect from 09 November 2014. Incumbent Governor Marcus’ term ends on 08 November 2...


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Presidential Results
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 06 Oct 2014

In the 1st round, Dilma Rousseff (PT) obtained 41.59% of valid votes.Aécio Neves (PSDB) came in second place with 33.55%.Marina Silva (PSB), in third place, obtained 21.32%.

In terms of votes, Dilma obtained 43,267,668 votes.Aécio totaled 34,897,211 votes.Marina obtained 22,176,619.


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Industrial Production: The Appearances are Misleading
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 06 Oct 2014
At first glance, it appears that by growing 0.7% in August, repeating the expansion measured in July, that industrial production has finally started to recover. However, appearances can be deceiving. First of all, the recent improvement is exclusively due to growth in the mineral extraction indus...

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September CPI reaches 3-year maximum; RUB at new lows
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 06 Oct 2014

September CPI data confirmed growing inflationary pressures due to restrictions on food imports from Western countries since August. Headline number is at +8.0% y-o-y, highest number since August 2011. ...


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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 03 Oct 2014

Aécio scores points in the best debate of the campaign

Aécio Neves was the winner of the debate on TV Globo.He took the initiative and continued with the strategy that has been working in the final leg of this campaign: attacking the government, with a special focus on corrupt...


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Legislative Imperatives
PHILIPPINES - Report 03 Oct 2014

We are keenly following three things now on Congress’s plate given their crucial role in keeping confidence and economic growth up in the very short term, as well as over the longer haul.

The more immediate one is the President’s request for emergency powers to address a forecast short...


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Time To Have a Little Break
TURKEY - Report 03 Oct 2014

September CPI inflation came in at a better than expected 0.1% (consensus: 0.4%), largely on account of a favorable drop in food prices and a somewhat stronger than expected base effect in transportation prices. Food prices, we estimate, have shrunk modestly in September (seasonally-adjusted),...


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Fiscal Policy: A Picture Without Retouches
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 02 Oct 2014
Executive Summary The primary surplus target of 1.9% of GDP in 2014 will not be met. This comes as no surprise. The surprise comes from the fact that the distance between the “official” target and what is actually achieved will be greater than previously estimated, revealing the magnitude of t...

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2015 Budget
CHILE - Report 02 Oct 2014
On October 1, the government presented to Congress its proposal for the 2015 budget. The budget must be approved by Congress before the end of November. The government claims that the budget is aggressively countercyclical. Fiscal spending in Chile depends on “structural” rather than current f...

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Moderate Central Bank President Resigns
ARGENTINA - In Brief 01 Oct 2014

Today Juan Carlos Fábrega presented his resignation as President of Argentina's Central Bank (BCRA). As his replacement President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) appointed Alejandro Vanoli, former president of the National Securities Commission (CNV), the local capital market regulator...


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Navigating a Cold Peace
UKRAINE - Forecast 01 Oct 2014

The “Truce treaty” with the separatists has left Ukraine in a very unclear position. On one hand, President Petro Poroshenko says this step was crucial to halting further Russian advances into Ukrainian territory (though the Russian Army’s heavy casualties were probably the real reason...