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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jul 2017

Last week the Central Bank cut the interest rate by 1 percentage point, to 9.25%. Its communiqué made it clear that there is still room for a significant further reduction of the SELIC rate, without jeopardizing the inflation target for 2018. Our projection is that the interest rate will fall to ...

Economic Monthly report
MEXICO · Report · 31 Jul 2017

The economic data released in July produced further evidence of continuing growth in key parts of the Mexican economy. Spending sustained its expansion in April as Mexico’s index of private consumption rose an annual 5.0% according to seasonally adjusted data: imported goods acted as the main dri...

Till Reality Do Us Part
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2017

In politics, we continue to predict relative calm at home through the end of this year, at the turn of which AKP should realize that its popularity is waning. Facing weakening economic growth as well, it is likely to call early elections by mid-2018 rather than wait until November 2019 -- and ris...

A SHAKY BUDGET
ECUADOR · In Brief · 29 Jul 2017

President Moreno referred to the status of the Ecuadorian economy as "critical" last Friday night when he presented a preliminary version of the Non-Financial Sector Budget for 2017. The assembly will be rest for two weeks and will review the budget after this period. According to the law, the Mi...

Maduro won’t back off on ANC
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Jul 2017

The National Constituent Assembly (ANC) elections that Maduro convened illegally to govern without separation of powers or constitutional guarantees are scheduled for July 30. Despite intense pressure at home and abroad and frenzied mediation by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in Caracas, Maduro ...

Politics: Fragile Presidential Nomination Process
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2017

Most major parties are facing a tough, uphill battle to come up with a winning presidential candidate at a time when a growing slice of the electorate is fed up with parties, and such voters are more inclined to cast their ballots for the candidates who appear to have the most appealing personali...

Infrastructure Drive
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Jul 2017

The Indonesian economy has been relatively sanguine through the end of the second quarter. Kohlberg Kravis and Roberts, a large private equity fund, made a bullish report on the Indonesian economy based on their recent visit to the country. The strong endorsement by the firm promoted further favo...

Cost Rica: Staring Down Tough Times
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Jul 2017

The Costa Rican economy will keep adjusting over the next 18 months. The strategy of low interest rates and relative currency stability followed in 2015-2016 started to break down in H1 2017, as shown by the events in Q2, when the Central Bank raised its monetary policy rate five times, from 1.7...

MPC: Still On Hold, As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jul 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), as expected, did not alter any of the short-term interest rates at today’s meeting, leaving the Late Liquidity Window rate at 12.25%, the one-week repo rate at 8.0%, and the O/N lending/borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respectively (Graph 1).

The medium term: More questions than answers
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 27 Jul 2017

Several signs indicate that the Colombian economy is still not recovering. In employment indicators, retail trade, manufacturing and construction, things do not look very promising. Most retail sub-sectors are either falling, or performing very poorly. So the slowdown drags on, with no recovery ...

President Poroshenko deprives Mikheil Saakashvili Ukrainian citizenship
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Jul 2017

It seems that silent summer has ended. Yesterday State migration service of Ukraine reported that President Petro Poroshenko deprived Ukrainian citizenship Mikheil Saakashvili, ex-president of Georgia and currently leader of opposition party ‘Movement of new forces’. The decision was justified wi...

Financial Risk Likely to Be Contained
CHINA · Report · 26 Jul 2017

GDP rose 6.9% y/y in H1, up only 0.1 pps from Q4 2016. Industrial output rose 6.9% y/y, up 0.8 pps, and fixed asset investment rose 8.6%. But fixed asset investment’s real growth rate was just 3.8% y/y, down 5 pps from last year. Negatively affected by weak investment growth, we expect H2 growth ...

On Volatility and Predictability
CHILE · Report · 25 Jul 2017

Retail sales in May looked relatively strong, but monthly data should be taken with a grain of salt, as it has become increasingly volatile. Retail sales still may be favored by a recovery in the stock of durable goods, especially in cars. Manufacturing in May had a better performance than in pre...

Good but Sad
UKRAINE · Forecast · 25 Jul 2017 · 1 response

The general picture for Ukraine’s economy is both good and not so good. The economy is now in the black, and GDP grew a much better than expected 2.5% y/y in Q1 2017. Still, growth was driven by a temporary improvement in the balance of trade — a trend that shifted during April. We now expect GDP...

Dicom auctions: A Band-aid
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Jul 2017

After two months of auctions, the Dicom system proves to be not much more than a Band-aid to Venezuela’s foreign exchange system. Gains are modest: it opened up a more transparent channel to official forex, establishes a (tenuous) relationship between the exchange rate and market conditions, and ...

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