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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Accelerating Growth, Weakening Trade Balance
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Dec 2017

Q3 GDP was revised higher by an unusually large amount in the second estimate, to 4.1% yoy from a preliminary 3.8%. This was followed by robust industrial and construction output numbers, and by this year’s so far strongest retail sales figure, for October. Based on all this data, we now see full...

Week of December 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2017

This is the final week of legislative activity this year. According to the Constitution, Congress enters its year-end recess on December 23. The Lower House tries to approve urgency for the bills on payroll tax exemptions and regulation of lobbying. On Monday, the Superior Electoral Court analyze...

Economics: Cost to Mexico of US Fiscal Reform
MEXICO · Report · 18 Dec 2017

According to a tentative analysis of differing reports on the compromise tax bill Republican leaders in the US House of Representatives and Senate approved Friday, the US fiscal reform will have a considerable adverse impact on countries that do business with the United States, and that effect co...

Politics: Three coalitions, three candidates
MEXICO · Report · 18 Dec 2017

Our prediction following the 2015 midterms that multiparty alliances would assume a greater role in politics has been borne out, as all nine registered parties have coalesced into three rival coalitions whose choice of 2018 presidential candidate is only a formality at this point. Two of thos...

Paradoxes
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Dec 2017

For Brazil to grow sustainably, many reforms are necessary, not only to assure a solid fiscal adjustment – as is the case of the pension reform – but also to stimulate investments and boost labor productivity. The task is daunting and will take years. The current government has taken some importa...

D-Day for new ANC leader
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 17 Dec 2017

Since yesterday, the ANC Elective Congress has been in full swing, but on slow motion, mainly due to the mix of ‘delegate accreditation issues” and “the pending court cases” against three provincial structures and some districts with relatively large branches. Interestingly enough, the majority o...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 17 Dec 2017

This week’s Update covers politics only, where our political analyst shares his preliminary forecasts for the next six months ahead of our upcoming Quarterly Report, which we plan to issue later next week. Meanwhile, for a quick assessment of the recent GDP and BOP releases, as well as our though...

President Kuczynski in his worst hour
PERU · In Brief · 15 Dec 2017

The worst scenario envisaged in our Report of four days ago appears to be unfolding at the moment, with allegations that President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski provided consulting services to the Brazilian firm Odebrecht through First Capital, a firm that belongs to him. These allegations have been stro...

Prime rate raised by extra 1 ppt up to 14.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2017

Today the Central bank one more time increased prime rate by 1 ppt up to 14.5%. Strong inflation is the main reason for this decision. For 11m 2017 CPI grew by 12.5% ytd already beating 12.2% ytd of the Central bank inflation forecast for the total year. At the same time, our CPI projection of +1...

South Africa’s current account deficit narrows to 2.3% of GDP
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Dec 2017

The surplus on the South African trade balance widened once again during the third quarter of 2017, a trend that started during the last quarter of 2016, making it the fourth consecutive quarter of a trade surplus growth. The trade surplus increased to R71 billion during the quarter from R64 bill...

MPC tries to escape with the minimum
TURKEY · Report · 14 Dec 2017

The CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) lending rate by a lower than expected 50 basis points (bps) to 12.75% from 12.25%. As broadly expected, the MPC left all other interest rates unchanged (one-week repo rate at 8.0%, O/N lending and borrowing rates at...

The mountain in labor
ECUADOR · Report · 13 Dec 2017

At the end of November, former President Rafael Correa threatened Moreno and his fellow “traitor supporters” that he would return to Ecuador and expel them from the presidency and the membership of Alianza Pais, respectively. He also promised Ecuadorians he would stop the referendum on grounds ...

Setting the election stage
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2017

Russia’s leadership once again announced its victory in Syria and started a troop withdrawal. The moment was carefully chosen to precede the presidential election in March 2018. However, Russia also demonstrated its long-range bomber strike capability to prove that it will remain involved in the ...

Chinese capital flight 3.0 three new nethods of capital flight are testing the regulators
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Dec 2017

For the ninth straight month, in October China’s foreign exchange reserves continued to rise, reaching US$3.11trn. SDR-denominated foreign exchange reserves also bounced back to a level above $2.2trn. After witnessing China’s crackdown on capital flight in 2017, and with stable foreign exchange r...

Tax reform: down to the wire (4)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Dec 2017

With, we learned, the Secretary of Finance in attendance facilitating discussions, the Bicameral Conference Committee on the tax reform bill pulled a couple of all-nighters since last week to finally have a reconciled version of tax package 1. The two chambers of congress are expected to ratify t...

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