​The formal end of Default
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 22 Apr 2016

Today, once government pays Holdouts their judicial claims and with it enables BoNY to receive payments for restructured debt holders, Argentina will formally end a more than 14 years default. This represents (much needed) good news, not just for the sovereign, but for the economy as a whole as i...

Interesting Times
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Apr 2016

The Colombian state still faces three main challenges to achieving peace: the demobilization and reintegration of the FARC fighters; reparations for victims; and rural development. The target date for finalizing the deal was recently postponed to an indefinite date -- but it’s likely that some ag...

MPC Does the Expected, More to Come
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2016

​The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its first meeting today under the chairmanship of the new Governor, Mr. Murat Cetinkaya, opting for a 50 bps cut of the O/N lending rate to 10% (simple), in line with expectations of the majority of analysts, including us. The other two rates – O/N borrow...

Economics: Sentiment and investment dichotomy
MEXICO · Report · 19 Apr 2016

Indexes of business confidence for March and of gross fixed investment for January showed negative results last week. But readings of sentiment and actual fixed investment significantly parted ways as far back as 2013 and as recently as 2015, a period in which business owners grew increasingly pe...

Politics: UNGASS and Foreign Policy Disarray
MEXICO · Report · 19 Apr 2016

President Enrique Peña Nieto’s approach to foreign relations has been a point of considerable controversy lately, with the most recent point of contention his initial decision early this month not to attend the upcoming U.N. General Assembly Special Session on Drugs, an event that had been moved ...

A Rather Weak Start for 2016
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Apr 2016

Growth prospects for 2016 still look quite bleak, given the combination of sluggish external demand with the currently unfolding impact of this year’s EU transfer shock. In fact, the economy started 2016 in a rather weak mode. We expect GDP growth to strengthen from 2% in 2016 towards 3% in the f...

Brazil and the World According to the IMF
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Apr 2016

Last week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its semiannual update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO). The report contains negative information about the Brazilian economy, and paints a global economic picture that will be unlikely to stimulate Brazilian growth.

Week of April 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Apr 2016

The impeachment arrives at the Senate. Senate President Renan Calheiros promises to set a work schedule with the Federal Supreme Court. A week of intense negotiations, by both the Planalto and the opposition. President Dilma Rousseff will intensify the government’s reaction, expanding the legal, ...

How will a Chinese adjustment affect the world?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Apr 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Recent debt and economy-related data released by the PBoC and the National Bureau of Statistics suggest that economic activity is stabilizing, but for the wrong reasons. Debt continues to rise faster than ever. • I continue to expect that China is mo...

Weekly Tracker: April 17-23
TURKEY · Report · 17 Apr 2016

Turkey’s smaller opposition parties, HDP and MHP, are in disarray. The pro-Kurdish rights HDP is facing the threat of several of its members being excommunicated from the Grand Assembly, if a controversial amendment to the Constitution restricting parliamentary immunities passes. The leader of th...

Government should be defeated on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2016

Unless an extraordinary event happens, the floor of the House of Representatives will approve the admissibility of the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff on Sunday. The chances are of 90%. Sources heard by Arko Advice, both from government and opposition, indicate that the pro-impeachment v...

Impeachment chances increase with defeat in the Supreme Court
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Apr 2016

As expected, late on Thursday, April 14, the government suffered two major defeats in the Supreme Court (STF). Government allies had filed an injunction challenging the voting order of impeachment by the House.

New Cabinet appointed. We are skeptical about reforms.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Apr 2016

Today Parliament approved Volodymyr Groysman for the Prime-minister post. The new Cabinet will have six (!) vice-prime ministers. The economic block of the Cabinet was totally refreshed. Former Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko was replaced with Oleksandr Danylyuk, who was Deputy Head of the Presi...

​The parliament is getting ready to lift its own immunities
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Apr 2016

It fills my heart with joy to receive questions from you, because it means Turkey is still being covered. Here is the latest query: “Hello, I have a question on the talks about removing the HDP immunity. We read that now CHP would not be against it. What exactly does it mean in terms of repercuss...

Economics: Lower Outlook, Deeper Cuts
MEXICO · Report · 14 Apr 2016

The Ministry of Finance sent the Chamber of Deputies its “Preliminary Economic Policy Criteria for 2017” on April 1. The preliminary criteria text depicts a relatively conservative macroeconomic scenario for 2017: GDP growth between 2.6% and 3.6% (as opposed to GEA’s 2.1% estimate); 3% inflation...