Country Insights

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CBT Unlikely to Change Rates
TURKEY - In Brief 17 Jun 2013
Small scale clashes lasted throughout the night across Turkey. A sympathy strike by left-leaning unions and professional associations drew in crowds, but excitement was notably lacking. These are critical days, if the protests wind down under their own weight, fine. The markets are likely to forg...

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Investments: Beware of Over-optimism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 17 Jun 2013

The data for the first quarter of 2013 show that the deceleration of GDP growth came from slower growth of household consumption and increased net imports. The positive surprise was fixed capital investments. The monthly figures on production of capital goods and construction materials, and th...

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Weekly Tracker: Week of June 16-22
TURKEY - Report 16 Jun 2013

Executive Summary

Prime Minister Erdogan's order for police to forcefully vacate the Gezi Parki prolonged the crisis, turning into an uprising by various segments of the society.The most likely summer scenario, unfortunately, seems to be a continuation of unrest.It is also not feasible...

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Markets Stirred; Economy Will Chug Along
PHILIPPINES - Report 14 Jun 2013

Just two weeks after the government announced much-better-than-expected 7.8% GDP growth in 1Q2013, which bucked the regional growth slowdown, local stock prices grabbed headlines with the worst one-day dive since the Lehman crisis in October 2008.Many were stunned by the steep fall, especially...

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President Putin Unveils Budget Policy Address for 2014-2016 - Shows Support for Minfin Policy
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 14 Jun 2013
V. Putin officially presented yesterday the Address on a meeting with the Government, Presidential Administration, CBR and Duma leaders ( Budget Policy Address is an official docum...

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Erdogan backs down on Gezi Parki
TURKEY - In Brief 14 Jun 2013
Party spokesperson H. Celik announced that


As long the current injunction 
by court on reconstruction in Gezi Parki stands, the government will not raze 

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Monetary authorities kept policy stance accommodative
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 13 Jun 2013
Monetary authorities kept policy stance accommodative amid outflow of capital from the region.  On balance, recent global financial developments positive for the Philippines providing breathing room for overbought financial markets (peso depreciated, interest rates up, stock prices down).  If ...

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Retail Sales: Modest Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Jun 2013

The seasonally adjusted retail sales numbers for April show slightly stronger growth: in the restricted concept sales grew 0.5% and in the augmented concept (including cars and construction materials) they expanded 1.9% (Graph 1). Over the past 12 months through April, the rates are lower than...

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Dominican Rep: in spite of announcements, public spending remains sluggish
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 13 Jun 2013
New figures on public spending for April show that in spite of the announcements made by the government that it will accelerate spending in public infrastructure, during that month, total spending remained as sluggish as during the first quarter.  Most likely, that meant a month of slow g...

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May Political and Economic Overview
MEXICO - Report 13 Jun 2013

Executive Summary

The setback in headline inflation sentiment index can largely be explained by increasing erosion of consumer expectations. That signals that consumer spending will stay weak through Q2.Flagging consumer hopes for household finances, and the broader economy, will evolv...

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Strategy For Financial Reform Is Becoming Visible
INDIA - Report 11 Jun 2013

Executive Summary

For the last decade, financial reforms in India have floundered. The game plan that now seems to be clearly visible comprises of a long term strategy and a two-pronged short term strategy. The long-term strategy is to enact some version of the draft Indian Financial C...

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Zooming in on Manufacturing
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 11 Jun 2013

Executive Summary

A favorable performance of the South African manufacturing sector is indispensable for achieving robust and sustained domestic economic growth. This is evidenced by the fact that a poor performance of the domestic manufacturing sector largely contributed to a shocking...

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Economy Says, End Taksim Peacefully
TURKEY - Report 11 Jun 2013

Two important data prints were released today: GDP grew by a better-than expected 3% in Q1, y/y, while April current account deficit was a wider than expected $8.2 billion.Both prints are problematic in our view, as they yield signs of a struggling economy on two fronts: a not so healthy growt...

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Q2 Health is an Illusion
ARGENTINA - Report 11 Jun 2013

Executive Summary

Appreciation of the parallel exchange rate, and a temporary fall in inflation, have moderated economic instability. But inflation and FX dynamics were mostly driven by unsustainable price controls, aggressive FX intervention in the blue-chip swap, and monetary con...

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AKP strikes back
TURKEY - In Brief 11 Jun 2013
Yet another fateful day in Turkish history. Arinc promised Erdogan will meet a delegation of Gezi Parki protestors tomorrow. But this morning riot police entered the Taksim Square to remove the banners and to end the occupation.  Clashes throughout the day and across the country a possibi...