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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Budget forecast until 2036 published
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2018

On 21 November the Russian Ministry of Finance published a budget forecast that goes up to 2036. These forecasts are published every six years. It is a fascinating insight into Russia's economic thinking. Necessarily these have to be the optimistic side of realistic.The forecast notes that fluctu...

New product labeling rules
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2018

On 30 November new product labeling rules were introduced in Russia. Labels will be considered 'a state information system'. Business will be given access to data collated thereby.Prime Minister launched a labeling project run by the Center for the Development of Long Term Technologies (TsRPT) in...

Bolsonaro’s cabinet and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2018

Congress enters its last month of activity before the recess. Among the bills on the agenda are the budget, transfer of rights, real estate contracts and the positive registry. Meetings are scheduled between President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and party leaders. Bolsonaro is expected to conclude...

Economics: Mixed economic indicators and new risks loom
MEXICO · Report · 03 Dec 2018

Economic news released in November included a third quarter GDP report that confirmed growth had rebounded between July and September. However, the 2.5% revised rate left cumulative growth for the first eleven months of the year at a relatively lackluster 2.1%, which is exactly on the mark of wha...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2018

By nominating Judge Sergio Moro to be the new minister of justice, with carte blanche to propose a program to fight corruption and organized crime, Bolsonaro allayed fears that his oft-times antidemocratic utterances made during the campaign might be put into practice. At the same time he benefit...

The cyclical recovery continues, but is still slow
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2018

​The publication of the official GDP figures for the third quarter shows that the cyclical recovery remains in progress, but is still sluggish. Growth in the quarter was 0.8%, after having inched upward by 0.2% in each of the two previous quarters. As is usual in the announcements of third-quarte...

Following last week's hike, tightening path expected to be gradual
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Dec 2018

Policy rates moved higher last week (as we had expected but against market consensus), pushing bond yields higher. We expect the tightening path in 2019 to be very gradual (we see rates at 0.5% by end-2019), and dependent on Fed tightening. Private consumption (non-durables especially) indicator...

November inflation drops sharply on lira, taxes, food
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2018 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside in November, coming in at negative 1.4%, m/m, dropping about twice faster than the consensus forecast (around 0.7% drop). Twelve-month CPI inflation fell sharply as a result, to 21.6%, from 25.2% in October. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation was als...

Monetary arithmetic revisited
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Nov 2018

Local attention these days is naturally focused on the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires, which, from a geopolitical perspective, represents a genuinely historical event for Argentina, and in particular for the Macri administration. Holding the G20 presidency and therefore hosting the annual summit is p...

Is the worst really over?
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2018

In this econ-only report, we share our latest thoughts on the recent macro developments in a Q&A format, as our politics author thought he would be much better positioned to update our esteemed readers soon after the G20 meetings are concluded. Markets are constructive on Turkey’s economic pro...

The Gruevski case: a further crack on EU relations right at the outset of budget talks
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Nov 2018

In recent days Hungary's government granted right of asylum to Nikola Gruevski, former prime minister of the FYR Macedonia, who was sentenced to a two-year prison term in his home country, for various wrongdoings involving corruption and abuse of power. This followed a somewhat unclear escape by ...

​First ever woman elected President of Georgia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2018

Salome Zurabishvili was elected President of Georgia. She will be inaugurated on December 16. She was born in France to Georgian emigres. She is a French citizen and served as the ambassador of France to Georgia. Some accused her of being more French than Georgian and trying to make her country a...

Has the rupiah started to rebound?
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Nov 2018

The Indonesian economy has recently enjoyed some small relief because of the “rebound” of the rupiah, after it depreciated continuously over the past several months. Having fallen to more than Rp.15,000 per greenback, the Indonesian currency gained a bit of strength in November. As of this writin...

Brazil Conference Call: Challenges facing the new government
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Nov 2018

​What are the most important economic challenges facing the Bolsonaro government? How will it move the economy from a sluggish recovery to accelerating growth? Can it achieve the fiscal consolidation necessary to alter the current debt/GDP trajectory?​

COSTA RICA: Constitutional Court approves fiscal reform package
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Nov 2018

Costa Rica’s Constitutional Court on November 23 unanimously green-lighted the fiscal reform package. The decision came after a public service workers' strike, and more than a year of discussions. The Supreme Court had indicated that the plan, approved by the Legislative Assembly 35-22 in its fi...

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