Country Insights

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Holding the Line on Rates
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 20 Sep 2013

Executive Summary

Strengthened by the arrival of new deputy governor Ksenia Yudaeva, the Central Bank board of directors announced in mid September that it plans to simplify, and unify, many monetary tools. It intends, for example, to abandon its “refinancing rate” – a main policy ...

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Lots of Talk, Little Action
VENEZUELA - Report 20 Sep 2013

Executive Summary

The government sorely needs to adopt credible and sustainable policies to stabilize exchange rates, prices, and expectations. An immediate priority is to patch up the exchange rate regime. The administration is planning to set up a new foreign exchange mechanism to ...

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PSB Exits The Allied Base
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 19 Sep 2013

The Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) announced on September 18 that it is delivering all posts it occupied in the Dilma Rousseff (PT) administration. The PSB occupied the Ministry of National Integration, the Secretariat of Ports, three directorships in the D...

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The Benchmark Interest Rate Remains Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 19 Sep 2013

Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) continues a period of no change in the benchmark interest rate. Cognizant of the upside nature of inflationary risks and the underlying hesitant economic recovery in South Africa, the MPC kept the ...

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RBI Announcement on 20th is Unusually Important
INDIA - In Brief 18 Sep 2013
It will be the first policy statement by Raghuram Rajan, the new RBI Governor. The date was deftly chosen to give him a little more time, and to take place after the FOMC announcement.

RBI monetary policy statements are like nothing you see with central banks elsewhere in the w...

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Green Light for the ITT
ECUADOR - In Brief 18 Sep 2013
The Commission of Bio-Diversity of the National Assembly approved last night the request from President Correa to declare the ITT oil camp of economic priority.  This approval virtually gives the government green light to exploit the oil camps of Tambococha, Tiputini and Ishpingo located in ...

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Regressive Pitfalls of Tax Reform
MEXICO - Report 18 Sep 2013

Executive Summary

The government of President Enrique Peña Nieto unveiled its budget proposals for 2014 along with closely related pieces of legislation that imply major changes to tax and fiscal policy while greatly expanding social security coverage. The stated purpose of such a r...

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Clearing Another Hurdle
MEXICO - Report 18 Sep 2013

Executive Summary

In the run-up to the official Mexican Independence Day Celebrations, which traditionally center on Mexico City’s main square, the government reached an agreement with the main organization of teachers to dismantle the protest encampment they have maintained for man...

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Above Target Headline Inflation
SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 18 Sep 2013
In August 2013, the headline inflation rate recorded 6.4 per cent year-on-year i.e. a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month’s print. This outcome is consistent with the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s expectation of a temporary breach of its 6 per cent inflation targeti...

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The MPC Does the Expected, but Chooses Not to Tinker with F/X Ratios
TURKEY - In Brief 17 Sep 2013
As expected, the MPC kept all rates unchanged today, while its assessment of the economy (e.g., mild recovery in domestic demand, a contained CAD thanks to current policy framework) was also broadly unchanged.  The Bank chose not to alter the F/X ratios (that would help to transfer some of i...

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An uneventful MPC, as expected
TURKEY - Report 17 Sep 2013

As expected, the MPC kept all rates unchanged today (see graph), while its assessment of the economy (e.g., mild recovery in domestic demand, a contained CAD thanks to current policy framework) was also broadly unchanged. The Bank chose not to alter the F/X ratios (that would help to transfer...

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Preliminary Analysis: Turkish Air force Shoots Down Syrian Chopper
TURKEY - In Brief 16 Sep 2013
According to deputy PM Bulent Arinc, later confirmed by the HQ of Chiefs of Military Staff, a Syrian military chopper was shot down ”inside the Turkish airspace” by two Turkish  Air Force F16s. The incident is new, with no announcement from Damascus as I write these lines; hence this is only...

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Political Insights
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 16 Sep 2013

An intense week of political negotiation ahead: The National Congress analyzes President Dilma’s vetoes, with the government’s effort focused on sustaining the veto on the end of the 10% fine on the FGTS in case of unfair dismissal. The STF decides on the possibility of a new trial for 12 of t...

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Thanks, Mr. President
PERU - Report 16 Sep 2013

Executive Summary

President Ollanta Humala’s announcement that “the crisis has arrived” depressed confidence in Peru—according to a recent poll, 61% of Peruvians think the country is already in economic crisis. So the government’s main near-term t...

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Noise in the Economic Activity Indicators
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 Sep 2013

The extreme volatility of the data lately has been hampering the task of gauging the economic activity trend. In previous reports we have already indicated this has been happening with the figures on industrial production, where the monthly variations in recent months have been alternating bet...

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