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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Final pre-election snapshot
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jun 2018

The final GEA-ISA national poll of registered voters ahead of Sunday’s presidential election shows Andrés Manuel López Obrador retaining his comfortable lead, with the support of 35% of those surveyed and a wide lead over all his competitors, while the battle for second place has tightened consid...

Breaking a potentially vicious feedback loop
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2018

On Monday, the benchmark Philippine stock index fell below 7,000 into what stock analysts call bear territory. This transpired after a fortnight of turmoil in emerging markets precipitated by an escalation of the face off between the US and China on the trade front. Alongside market read of a mor...

Can China sustain RMB depreciation?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Jun 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Beijing must be seen as having the ability to respond effectively and powerfully to American threats of trade intervention. RMB depreciation is one of the few responses it has, which is probably why the RMB has dropped 4 percent against the US dollar...

MNB: No problem, no comment, we have said everything we wanted
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jun 2018

Today's trading did not bring about any relief for the forint, which slid a bit further down, to EURHUF 328.5-329. Responding to a question, the government's spokesman, state secretary Zoltán Kovács said that there may be investor speculation at play against the forint.The MNB apparently did not ...

The forint was never this weak historically
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jun 2018

The EURHUF went to 328.18 at one point in late trading today, which was a historic record in terms of forint weakness. Later it settled down between EURHUF 327.50-328, meaning it failed to recover by any significant amount within the day.All this can be traced back to some euro weakness against t...

A clear recovery in firm data, less so in other indicators
INDIA · Report · 27 Jun 2018

What is the state of business cycle conditions in India today? The net sales of large firms show a clear recovery. There is strong export buoyancy and early signs of easing of the balance sheet crisis in non-financial firms. But the picture is not good for investment and profitability. There is ...

Transiting from depression to euphoria
CHILE · Report · 25 Jun 2018

The Central Bank’s June Monetary Policy Report was more hawkish than that of March. The Central Bank is preparing the market for the next cycle of monetary policy tightening, which should start before year-end. Perhaps the most relevant point was a downplay of the risk of a non-convergence rate t...

Economics: Signs of further slowing
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Aggregate supply and demand data through the first quarter of 2018 showed stronger-than-anticipated growth, thanks largely to a 6.4% jump in public investment that snapped a three-year streak of sharp declines. The marked rise in public investment is explained by increased government constructio...

Options for the main parties in the presidential race and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Former President Lula’s defense will try to appeal the denial of its request for Lula’s freedom in the Federal Supreme Court. On Tuesday, June 26, the MDB discusses the presidential race. In the economy, we highlight the minutes of the most recent Copom meeting, at which the group decided to keep...

Politics: What we are yet to learn
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Save some totally unexpected development or a massive failure of all polling, it is almost certain that Andrés Manuel López Obrador will win the presidential election. The main uncertainty at this point involves the eventual margin of victory, with polling aggregators showing the three-time presi...

A scenario filled with uncertainties and undergoing intense mutation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 25 Jun 2018 · 1 response

With the United States in full employment, growing faster than the potential and with an expansionary fiscal policy, the dollar has been appreciating, inverting the international conditions that were favorable to emerging countries. Brazil does not have a balance of payments problem, but it does ...

We expect the first rate hike in March 2019
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Household demand appears to be slowing, due to slowing consumer credit growth. Residential housing starts decelerated in Q118, which is expected to keep housing inventory tight, supporting higher housing prices, especially rentals. Zoom In: The MPC will be patient before tightening, probably n...

COPOM’s correct decision
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Despite the upward shift and steeper slope of the yield curve, the Central Bank’s decision to keep the SELIC rate at 6.5% did not cause any negative reaction from economists, who almost unanimously anticipated this action. The appreciation of the dollar has caused the real to depreciate, a reacti...

Downward pressure on growth
CHINA · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Growth is facing downward pressure. Chinese fixed asset investment, a key growth driver, was up by a new low of just 3.9% y/y in May, and down 3.6 pps from Q1, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States would apply tariffs of 25% to roughly $50 billion worth of Chinese goods....

​(B)ahceli for Victory
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2018 · 1 response

These are my first impressions, which are likely to evolve during the course of the day. It is too simplistic to say “Erdogan and AKP-MHP have won, and nothing will change”. First, AKP has lost big, dropping 7 handles vs. November 2015 general elections. Erdogan has only clinched victory, because...

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