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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Waiting Game
PERU · In Brief · 05 Jun 2016

Two pollsters give Pedro Pablo Kuczynski al slight lead according to their 'rapid count', which is based on a sample of actual voting ballots.Ipsos Kuczynski : 50.5% Fujimori : 49.5%GFK Kuczynski 50.8%: Fujimori: 49.2%Error margin: plus/minus 1% ONPE, the oficial electoral body will not be able t...

Ahead of Today's Election Results
PERU · In Brief · 05 Jun 2016

During the very last days of the campaign we have seen a rapid climb in the vote intention in favor of Kuczynski. They are now neck and neck and given an error margin of 2-3 pp up or down, it will be difficult to draw a meaningful conclusion early on just by assessing exit polls. Later in the eve...

Weekly Tracker: June 5-11
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2016

An Armenian genocide bill that was passed by the lower chamber of the German parliament hurt Turks’ feelings, but it is unlikely to lead to substantive sanctions by the government. On the other hand, the Refugee Deal is dead and Turkey-EU relations are unlikely to be a matter of economic or marke...

A setback at Audi found behind the weakness industrial output
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2016

As is well-known for the reader, gross industrial output only grew by a marginal 0.5% yoy in Q1, dominated by a 1.4% yoy decrease of the output of the car industry, which represents close to one-third of the total industrial sector. And all that came after 8.8% yoy growth in industry and 18.6% yo...

Candidates in the runoff now tied
PERU · In Brief · 03 Jun 2016

The clear 5 pp lead just a few days and in the Sunday's Ipsos poll (the last day poll results are allowed to be published in Peru) has practically vanished. The latest private poll by GFK conducted on Wenesday and Thursday now show Fujimori leading by just 0.6pp (2.3 error margin ). The Fujimori ...

Benign May Print Should Help the MPC
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2016

Consumer prices rose by 0.6% in May, m/m, same as last year, which left the 12-month rate unchanged at 6.6%. Food prices dropped in May for seasonal reasons, but less so than in May last year, taking the 12-month food inflation up to 2.5%, from 1.4% in April (Table 1; Graphs 1-2). Key disinflatio...

International pressures escalate
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jun 2016 · 1 response

The report on Venezuela published on May 31 by Luis Almagro, Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), will heighten international pressures on the Venezuelan government if it’s approved by the organization’s permanent council.

Stress in Electoral Oversight Could Deepen Crisis
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2016

Indicators published in May reinforce our analysis of economic weakening trends, though there were promising developments, too. The monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) suggested a gradual firming of economic activity (+3% in March, the highest level ytd). We also saw further evidence of expanding service se...

A Dirty Float
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Jun 2016

In this report we review the trajectory of the peso, given BCRA polices vis-à-vis a floating exchange rate regime with FX interventions (i.e., a dirty float). The Central Bank started to buy currency for its reserves in mid-January, when the peso dropped below 13.5. Yet, it inverted its net buy...

A Sign of Slower Growth?
INDONESIA · Report · 31 May 2016

The Central Board of Statistics recently released the National Account Statistics for the first quarter of 2016, which reported slower-than-expected growth. General expectations were that Indonesian economic growth would be somewhat higher than the previous quarter, but the CBS reported a rate of...

Turkey offers U. S. joint action in Syria
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 May 2016

We had just predicted a very hot summer for Turkey, when a scorching weather front started spreading from Syria. First, Syrian Defense Forces led by PKK-affiliated Kurdish militia called YPG has been advancing towards ISIS’ capital Raqqa with several news items in the Turkish press claiming that ...

Week of May 30
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2016

The leaked audio recordings of former Transpetro president Sérgio Machado continue to create waves in Brasília. Dilma Rousseff presents her defense to the Impeachment Committee, which will vote on its work schedule this week. The rapporteur of the case against Eduardo Cunha in the Ethics Counci...

The Start of the Temer Government: Where Will Growth Come From?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 May 2016

It’s too early for a more precise assessment, but at first glance the measures announced by the new administration are in the right direction. They start by addressing the origin of the rapid growth of the debt/GDP ratio, which is the increase of expenditures at a pace faster than economic growth...

Operationalizing the interest rate corridor
PHILIPPINES · Report · 30 May 2016

On Friday, the BSP will launch its interest rate corridor (IRC) system . The changes will be operational in nature and will not affect the stance of monetary policy. These changes include: 1. Adjustments to the set of interest rates used for open market operations with the lending and deposit ...

Keiko Leading, PPK Keeps Fighting
PERU · Report · 29 May 2016

Two pro-market presidential candidates are competing in the June 5th runoff, after an April 10th first round that also gave Keiko Fujimori’s party a comfortable congressional majority, of 73 seats out of 130. Her opponent Pedro Pablo Kuczynski drew only 18 congressional seats, but narrowly trounc...

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