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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

CBRT simplifies monetary policy
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 May 2018 · 1 response

The CBRT has made public today what was promised at a closed-door meeting with bankers last night, and simplified the monetary policy framework. In a short announcement, the CBRT said that one-week repo rate will be the policy rate, which will be equal to the current funding rate (of 16.50%), and...

Some useful good news on fiscal policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 May 2018

Just as the MNB seems in a little bit of a trap, as the European cycle, EURUSD, EU matters and emerging market assets are moving in the wrong direction, there seem to be two pieces of good news just having come up on domestic fundamentals, and more accurately on fiscal policy.First, the governmen...

New storms approaching
TURKEY · Report · 27 May 2018 · 1 response

In this week’s report, the Political Analyst and his Doppelganger Cosmic Strategist joined forces to place upcoming events in a market perspective, saving detailed analysis of political fundamentals for the Monthly Report we plan to publish during the week. We argue that the current calm in th...

Macroeconomic outook
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 25 May 2018

Questions of fiscal stability and growth are key as the country heads into a presidential election.

Trade war truce resolves growth uncertainties
CHINA · Report · 25 May 2018

Growth data was mixed in April. The value added for industrial firms was up 7% y/y, up 0.2 pps from Q1 and up 0.8 pps from Q4 2017. Fixed asset investment was up 6.1% y/y, down 1.4 pps from Q1, although still higher than in Q3 2017. Specifically, private investment was up 7.5% y/y, down 1.4 pps f...

The NBU keeps prime rate flat amid concerns on EM currencies
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 May 2018

On May 24 the NBU left prime rate unchanged at 17.0%. Easing inflation and hryvnia stability are the main reasons behind this decision. The press-release also mentions substantial easing of May inflation according to the NBU estimates. The NBU has provisional data on inflation and we should treat...

Truckers’ strike
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 May 2018

Government reaches deal with truck drivers to suspend strike for 15 days The government and representatives for Truck Drivers have reached a deal to suspend the strike for 15 days. After the 15 days, there will be another meeting between the entities and the government to follow up on commitm...

Moreno aims at recovering his public image
ECUADOR · Report · 24 May 2018

An encouraging and positive President Moreno gave his first report to the Nation as is customary after the first year in office. The change in style from his predecessor was evident and consistent in every section of his speech and brought hope on the economic perspectives. However, this is a ...

Interest rate cuts aborted as pressure on inflation mounts
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 May 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank today voted to keep the bench mark interest rate at 6.5%. This was following its decision to cut rates by 25 basis points in March 2018 (their second rate cut since a succession of increases since January 2014). This means the ...

Truckers’ strike
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 May 2018

The government is going through a very delicate moment, perhaps one of the worst since Michel Temer became president. Even during the explosion of the JBS crisis, the government at least had a solid majority in Congress. Today, the government’s dealings with the governing coalition are precario...

Muddle-through, it is
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 May 2018

I am writing this note to augment Dr. Murat Ucer’s commentary on CBRT action, titled “CBRT Finally Acts, Avoids the Worst – For Now”.Our audience should recall, that Murat and I have now focused our combined energies on forecasting two variables: Can Turkey survive the period between now and Marc...

Nobody won
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 23 May 2018

Maduro’s victory on 20 May didn’t convince anyone, neither at home nor abroad. New U.S. sanctions and Lima Group pressures limit further the government’s room to maneuver. It’s too soon to tell whether Maduro strengthened his grip on chavismo after his 20 May victory or whether elections lead to ...

Reaching the inflexion point?
PERU · Report · 23 May 2018

President Martín Vizcarra’s cabinet presented its plan to Congress, and won the body’s necessary vote of confidence, 94-19. The leftist parties dissented, but Keiko Fujimori’s Fuerza Popular party, which controls 50% of Congress, responded positively. Though some interpreted this as a tacit agree...

​CBRT Finally Acts, Avoids the Worst – For Now
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 May 2018

At an emergency interim meeting held this evening in Ankara, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee raised the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate – which has been the de facto policy rate -- by 300 bps to 16.5%, from 13.5%, leaving all other rates unchanged (Graph 1). In its brief statement, the Bank...

Ideology and somnolence
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 May 2018

Our forecast for the Sunday, May 27, first-round presidential election is that the most likely pair to advance to the second round is Duque-Petro, to which we assign a probability of 55%. The second most likely is Duque-Vargas (35% probability), and the third is Duque-Fajardo (10% probability). ...

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