GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The CBRT Governor Erdem Basci presented the third Inflation Report of the year today.There were no significant revisions to inflation forecasts with the (midpoint) of end-2015 forecast revised up by 0.1 pp to 6.9% (from 6.8% earlier), and the end-2016 forecast kept unchanged at 5.5% as before. Go...

Turn back to the center?

CHILE · Report · 30 Jul 2015

Executive summary The recently appointed Minister of Finance, Rodrigo Valdés, rang the alarm: the fiscal situation is not as good as we may think. Fiscal discipline is in Valdés´s DNA. He convinced most relevant actors that there is not enough money to push the reforms as fast as previously ex...

Bubble Burst, the Chinese Way

CHINA · Report · 29 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Though growth is still low, we expect it to pick up H2, driven by several positive factors. GDP grew 7% y/y in Q2, flat on Q1. Industrial output in Q2 was up 6.3% y/y, virtually flat on Q1. But output was up 6.8% y/y in June, its highest level this year, and up 1.2 pps fro...

Economics: Programs Fail to Avert Poverty Rise

MEXICO · Report · 29 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Last week the National Council for the Evaluation of Public Policy (Coneval) released new poverty data for Mexico based on information contained in the National Statistics Office’s National Survey of Household Income and Spending for 2014 (ENIGH 2014), which we analyzed in last ...

Chief Prosecutor initiates investigation into HDP

TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Jul 2015

After Erdogan accused the pro-Kurdish rights party HDP of being the accomplice of PKK and reiterated that the Kurdish Peace is over, Turkey’s Chief Prosecutor didn’t waste time leaking it to the press that his office began collecting evidence with a view on pressing charges against HDP for aiding...

Politics: Death Knell of CNTE Power in Oaxaca

MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Last week Oaxacan state officials announced they were eliminating the Oaxaca State Public Education Institute (IEEPO) and creating a new body to manage public education. This is a major blow to the power of Local 22 of the National Teachers Union (SNTE), until now the strongest ...

Default Evaded; Progress in Sight

UKRAINE · Report · 28 Jul 2015

Executive Summary The Ministry of Finance paid a $120 million coupon on its Eurobond on July 24th, which postponed feared default and reduced chances of a moratorium on debt repayment. The story is still long from over, and the Ministry of Finance will continue negotiating with creditors through ...

The Falling Credibility of Economic Policy Execution

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Because of the declining tax revenue caused by the recession and the only partial approval by Congress of the proposed spending cuts, it was evident for some time that the primary surplus target of 1.1% of GDP for 2015 would not be met. But there was belief in a moderate redu...

Week of July 27

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2015

President Dilma Rousseff will try to reverse her popularity losses. She will launch the Dialogue Brazil website, a digital platform to connect citizens with the government. She will also meet with governors on Thursday, July 30. In Brasília, the Central Bank sets the benchmark interest rate, and ...

Playing Monetary Hawk and Dove Games at the Economy’s Peril

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Jul 2015

On July 23, 2015, the monetary authority of South Africa voted to increase the repo rate by 25 basis points. Such a move can be construed as a confirmation that the South African Reserve Bank has kept to its long-held assertion that it had embarked on an interest rate hiking cycle. Apparently, th...

The Disastrous Loosening of Fiscal Policy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jul 2015

Last week, the finance and planning ministers announced that the primary surplus target for 2015 has been reduced from 1.1% to 0.15% of GDP. The targets for 2016 and 2017, which were previously set at at least 2% of GDP, have also been lowered, to 0.7% and 1.3% of GDP, respectively. None of these...

South Africa’s Shifting Political Economy: Labor Unions Thrown into Turmoil

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Jul 2015

After a year-long struggle to regain its membership of COSATU, SA’s largest private sector union, National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) with an estimated membership of over 360,000 members, resolved to go on its own and form a new “union confederation” and launch its own “workeri...

How debt constrains growth in China

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 27 Jul 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: The sustainability of China’s economic model and its dependence on debt has been a controversial topic far longer than it should have been, but while there is now a consensus that Chinese debt levels are very high and may put the country at risk, most ec...

Weekly Tracker: July 26-August 1

TURKEY · Report · 26 Jul 2015

Executive Summary It has been a week of shocking developments in Turkish politics. After the Suruc bombing, Ankara declared war on ISIS, granting access to Coalition Air Forces in all of its airbases. As we write the Weekly Tracker (in the early morning hours), the Turkish Air Force was bombing I...

If You Don’t Have It, You Can’t Spend It

COLOMBIA · Forecast · 24 Jul 2015

Executive Summary What does the FARC really want from a peace agreement? We believe the answer can be found in those half dozen border provinces where the guerrillas derive most of their income, and where their investments and wealth are concentrated. We believe prospects for a deal are good: as ...